January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

Wouldn't NC be better in terms of Mid-Atlantic coastal though?

I think they're good for different things, TN to see how far west things get started (we want it further west than it is now) and NC to see how the development goes, and because if it is getting clobbered there's hope for a north trend (though not as much this year apparently). But I'm just mashing together a few data points and having fun with it so, take what you will and I could be loopy

[TSSN+]

Ok folks the gfs is running. Let’s reel one in. We all need a folks run inside 180. 

[baltosquid]

DESI is fun and lets you make charts like this. From the National Blend of Models.
 

[winter_warlock]

11 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

So 50% less than normal

Lmaoo yep

[Scraff]

The silence is deafening. Come on GooFus! Hit us. I dare you. 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ok folks the gfs is running. Let’s reel one in. We all need a folks run inside 180. 

Nah no we don't--because the bellyaching when it inevitably goes poof at 18z is gonna be unbearable, lol

[Solution Man]

Biggest run of our lives, until 18z

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Biggest run of our lives, until 18z

Yup. Keep your expectations low everyone.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yup. Keep your expectations low everyone.

Keeping it within striking distance is what matters. 

[87storms]

I forecasted 18” at Reagan, so round up to 20 for the Frederick desert. Based on the winter pattern so far, I’ll be content reaching half that.

[Terpeast]

33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If it's conducive for snow to our south, then we're in a position to score.

What's good for Tennessee is good for us.

[mitchnick]

Hope I'm wrong, but at 129hrs it just looks like a cold front. Maybe Euro is right with the 19th?

[dailylurker]

Gfs looks boring so far lol. Decent rain this weekend is about it so far. 

[soadforecasterx]

wow this thing is so close to being a huge storm

[NorthArlington101]

Snowing in SEVA starting at 138 - see if it makes it way up

[87storms]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Hope I'm wrong, but at 129hrs it just looks like a cold front. Maybe Euronis right with the 19th?

Dust bowl level stuff out west.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Snowing in SEVA starting at 138 - see if it makes it way up

Nah.  Well..close but the mighty Potomac stops it

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Snowing in SEVA starting at 138 - see if it makes it way up

looks like it's going south haha

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Really close to going boom here, I like the trends. 

[mitchnick]

Trough was way too positive for our purposes. 

[NorthArlington101]

[stormtracker]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

Gfs lost all good vibes from 00z. Worthless model

lol, pendulum swinging at a 10 day storm.

[soadforecasterx]

about to go negative, can this pull it off

[mitchnick]

All we need from here is for the trough to close ala 1/25/00

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2026010912&fh=156

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 Not bad at all for a storm 120+hours away!!

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Trough was way too positive for our purposes. 

Keep hope alive!

[87storms]

Worth tracking…but it shouldn’t be this difficult lol.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, soadforecasterx said:

about to go negative, can this pull it off

 It's  getting there!!!!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

156 looks soooo close to what we need!!

[NorthArlington101]

Storm total