AlexD1990 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Let me get this straight: So for a major east coast snow storm we need: -AO, +PNA, -NAO, -WPO, -EPO, weak SPV or SW, MJO in phases 1-3, low sun angle during the day, Modoki El Niño SST in Pacific and below normal in Atlantic to keep SER in check, and all cows farting SE in the upper Midwest to push down enough cold air. At the same time at the surface, we need an upper level low in the TN valley, an arctic High over Quebec, and a surface low tracking NNE off of Hatteras....oh and a truckload of luck. What am I missing!!!? did you not know how weather works before today? Some username.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Today's euro weeklies don't look torchy in Feb here, fwiw 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yes. To get a Major East Coast Storm, you need multiple ingredients to align. It's like cooking - a phenomenal meal needs to come together almost perfectly. As an executive chef, I support this post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As an executive chef, I support this post. Paul Kocin cooked that metaphor up. He gets all the credit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I hope everyone realizes my post was trying to make a point.....it ain't easy getting everything to line up for a BECS/MECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I hope everyone realizes my post was trying to make a point.....it ain't easy getting everything to line up for a BECS/MECS. Yeah I think we all know there's a reason these KUs happen once or twice every 10 years... or even longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I hope everyone realizes my post was trying to make a point.....it ain't easy getting everything to line up for a BECS/MECS. Indeed. Unfortunately some folks misinterpret posts like that so I was attempting to add a crumb of context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Icon at 162hrs looks not so bad. Let's see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Icon at 162hrs looks not so bad. Let's see how it goes. Better yet at 174 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Saw it coming 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, mitchnick said: Saw it coming Our lord and savior the icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, mitchnick said: Saw it coming A few days ago that was a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Well... can't say the ICON isn't consistent. Been the first model reliably on board with this. Too bad it's the ICON at Day 7 ^ ongoing at end 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I don't think the storm would be ending fast on the Icon despite that surface map. If you look at the 700mb RH and wind direction along with 500mb vorticity, I think snow would linger. Here are the links. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=700rh&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500hv&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 That block north of Maine is what I like to see for our bigger storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I don't think the storm would be ending fast on the Icon despite that surface map. If you look at the 700mb RH and wind direction along with 500mb vorticity, I think snow would linger. Here are the links. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=700rh&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500hv&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Yea there's a decent moisture feed with that storm and it looks fairly neutral at 500 mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Icon.... The 2026 version of the Dgex lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Well... can't say the ICON isn't consistent. Been the first model reliably on board with this. Too bad it's the ICON at Day 7 ^ ongoing at end Kuchera better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: A few days ago that was a rainer. As @Terpeast and @WxUSAF have often said, worry about thermals inside D5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Icon.... The 2026 version of the Dgex lol Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Been quite a while since we had a miller A coming up from the gulf!!! Hope it holds and I hope other models get on board!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed. I do remember that!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed. DGEX and then the DGEX and Canadian for the 2/10 event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said: That block north of main is what I like to see for our bigger storms. Seems like a 50/50 low locks everything in? Not a terrible spot for the antecedent high, not great either. IIRC, that setup worked for 12/19/09 too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yup I remember that.. the Dgex nailed it!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z GFS not interested in dropping that energy through the Rocky's and phasing like the ICON does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: 12z GFS not interested in dropping that energy through the Rocky's and phasing like the ICON does. Also has little consistency. It’s different from run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Also has little consistency. It’s different from run to run. This has messy "models are clueless" written all over it. Can't buy any solution right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: Also has little consistency. It’s different from run to run. Yeah, hopefully we can get what the ICON is showing! Perfectly timed phasing and trough axis that results in us being just cold enough to snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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