January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[AlexD1990]

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let me get this straight: So for a major east coast snow storm we need: -AO, +PNA, -NAO, -WPO, -EPO, weak SPV or SW, MJO in phases 1-3, low sun angle during the day, Modoki El Niño SST in Pacific and below normal in Atlantic to keep SER in check, and all cows farting SE in the upper Midwest to push down enough cold air.  At the same time at the surface, we need an upper level low in the TN valley, an arctic High over Quebec, and a surface low tracking NNE off of Hatteras....oh and a truckload of luck.   What am I missing!!!?

did you not know how weather works before today? Some username....

[Terpeast]

Today's euro weeklies don't look torchy in Feb here, fwiw

[Ralph Wiggum]

40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes. To get a Major East Coast Storm, you need multiple ingredients to align. It's like cooking - a phenomenal meal needs to come together almost perfectly.

As an executive chef, I support this post.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As an executive chef, I support this post.

Paul Kocin cooked that metaphor up. He gets all the credit.

[Weather Will]

I hope everyone realizes my post was trying to make a point.....it ain't easy getting everything to line up for a BECS/MECS.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I hope everyone realizes my post was trying to make a point.....it ain't easy getting everything to line up for a BECS/MECS.

Yeah I think we all know there's a reason these KUs happen once or twice every 10 years... or even longer.

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I hope everyone realizes my post was trying to make a point.....it ain't easy getting everything to line up for a BECS/MECS.

Indeed. Unfortunately some folks misinterpret posts like that so I was attempting to add a crumb of context.

[mitchnick]

Icon at 162hrs looks not so bad. Let's see how it goes.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Icon at 162hrs looks not so bad. Let's see how it goes.

Better yet at 174

[mitchnick]

Saw it coming

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Saw it coming

Our lord and savior the icon  

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Saw it coming

A few days ago that was a rainer.

[NorthArlington101]

Well... can't say the ICON isn't consistent. Been the first model reliably on board with this. Too bad it's the ICON at Day 7

^ ongoing at end

[mitchnick]

I don't think the storm would be ending fast on the Icon despite that surface map. If you look at the 700mb RH and wind direction along with 500mb vorticity, I think snow would linger. Here are the links.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=700rh&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500hv&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[soadforecasterx]

That block north of Maine is what I like to see for our bigger storms. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't think the storm would be ending fast on the Icon despite that surface map. If you look at the 700mb RH and wind direction along with 500mb vorticity, I think snow would linger. Here are the links.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=700rh&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500hv&rh=2026010812&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Yea there's a decent moisture feed with that storm and it looks fairly neutral at 500 mb?

[winter_warlock]

Icon.... The 2026 version of the Dgex lol

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Well... can't say the ICON isn't consistent. Been the first model reliably on board with this. Too bad it's the ICON at Day 7

^ ongoing at end

Kuchera better

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

A few days ago that was a rainer.

As @Terpeast and @WxUSAF have often said, worry about thermals inside D5. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Icon.... The 2026 version of the Dgex lol

Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed.

[winter_warlock]

Been quite a while since we had a miller A coming up from the gulf!!! Hope it holds and I hope other models get on board!!

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed.

I do remember that!!! 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed.

DGEX and then the DGEX and Canadian for the 2/10 event.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Never forget the Dgex victory a week+ before 2/6/10 & 2/10/10. It had us down for 36" and we all laughed.

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

That block north of main is what I like to see for our bigger storms. 

Seems like a 50/50 low locks everything in? Not a terrible spot for the antecedent high, not great either. IIRC, that setup worked for 12/19/09 too.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 Yup I remember that.. the Dgex   nailed it!!!! 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

12z GFS not interested in dropping that energy through the Rocky's and phasing like the ICON does. 

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

12z GFS not interested in dropping that energy through the Rocky's and phasing like the ICON does. 

Also has little consistency. It’s different from run to run. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Also has little consistency. It’s different from run to run. 

This has messy "models are clueless" written all over it. Can't buy any solution right now!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Also has little consistency. It’s different from run to run. 

Yeah, hopefully we can get what the ICON is showing!  Perfectly timed phasing and trough axis that results in us being just cold enough to snow.