January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[adelphi_sky]

6 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

We just need some snow. This thread is becoming more painful than my anal fissure. 

You ain't lyin'. I feel like there earlier the snow, the worse the addiction. WE're just experiencing withdraw systems a bit early. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Do weenie ratings actually count for something in the forum?  It seems like ravensrule weenies most posts but I just assumed it was a joke and didn't know it was a serious thing.  Where can I find my weenie count?

No, it's like downvoting a reddit comment if there was no karma system. A lot of people here take it way more personally than they should.

[WEATHER53]

Well I addressed the 1/7 onset date and the delay monster of 1/14 and 1/21 and got run out of town on rails .  And as usual and as indicated it’s beginning to transpire.  Models give examples of weather but not forecasts and “guidance” is a mere wish 

Let the fire bombing begin 

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Well I addressed the 1/7 onset date and the delay monster of 1/14 and 1/21 and got run out of town on rails .  And as usual and as indicated it’s beginning to transpire.  Models give examples of weather but not forecasts and “guidance” is a mere wish 

Let the fire bombing begin 

Someone replied this to me the other day but the stuff that was supposed to happen next week kind of popped up out of nowhere as an "added bonus" while the flip was always supposed to be roughly mid month. Even BAM's latest post talking about a potential red flag isn't 100% on board with can kicking it. Neither is CWG: https://x.com/capitalweather/status/2007118457418957123

[Terpeast]

EPS shows NN temps (at least at 850mb) starting Jan 11 onwards. As a reminder, our Jan climo 850s are at -3 to -4, so it can still snow (or mix) if 850s are slightly AN.

GEFS/GEPS is warmer and more borderline, and delays the cold by a day or two. We want to root for Euro to be right.

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

EPS shows NN temps (at least at 850mb) starting Jan 11 onwards. As a reminder, our Jan climo 850s are at -3 to -4, so it can still snow (or mix) if 850s are slightly AN.

GEFS/GEPS is warmer and more borderline, and delays the cold by a day or two. We want to root for Euro to be right.

they ruined the GFS. All it does is show dry and torch. Better hope for some good EPS runs today

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Ji said:

they ruined the GFS. All it does is show dry and torch. Better hope for some good EPS runs today

GFS fell off a cliff after DOGE.

[dailylurker]

Here's a deck pic from the Tug for this snow starved thread lol. Almost 4' overnight. 

[Ji]

pretty good 12z GFS run for the heart of winter!

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

pretty good 12z GFS run for the broken heart of winter!

Fixed!

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

they ruined the GFS. All it does is show dry and torch. Better hope for some good EPS runs today

Gefs are a furnace too for at least a week after 1/5. How much longer, idk, as the run hasn't finished.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs are a furnace too for at least a week after 1/5. How much longer, idk, as the run hasn't finished.

Meh, DOGE nuked their accuracy.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z Canadian has the trough in the east again by the 11th.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z Canadian ends on day 10 with widespread cold.

[Ji]

is the euro going to give us a fantasy storm? stay tuned

[bncho]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

is the euro going to give us a fantasy storm? stay tuned

its rain lol

[mitchnick]

Just now, bncho said:

its rain lol

To be fair, he didn't say snowstorm. Lol

[bncho]

Just now, mitchnick said:

To be fair, he didn't say snowstorm. Lol

watch @JenkinsJinkies weenie me for saying that it's rain lol

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

its rain lol

yea--im about to pull the plug. 

[Cobalt]

I forget who it was exactly, but during the 2020-2021 winter someone ran the numbers on "snowless" mid-winter stretches at DCA and found that virtually every year in the modern era had at least one 30-45 day break between snowfalls. A few of the analog winters had even more prolific stretches, such as 2005-2006's 58 day break. I suppose that these types of breaks are more stressful in La Ninas because of how snowfall climo runs downhill as winter progresses, but the latter halves of 05-06, 17-18, and even last winter show that this is not always the case. 

[IronTy]

56 minutes ago, Ji said:

they ruined the GFS. All it does is show dry and torch. Better hope for some good EPS runs today

Maybe I can plant my tomatoes in the garden next weekend!  My petunias are barely hanging on, if they can make it a few more days then they'll be golden. 

[Maestrobjwa]

57 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

GFS fell off a cliff after DOGE.

True or not, you might not wanna go there here.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

No, it's like downvoting a reddit comment if there was no karma system. A lot of people here take it way more personally than they should.

Social media is so dumb. In the good ole days of forums we didn't have emojis or high school clique level rating systems.  Thanks MySpace.  

[mitchnick]

At 348 hrs, Gefs are building the SER again. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

yea--im about to pull the plug. 

ofc you are- over a single deterministic run 318 hours out. See ya next winter!

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

At 348 hrs, Gefs are building the SER again. 

where do you see a SE ridge?

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

At 348 hrs, Gefs are building the SER again. 

Not taking the bait.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Not taking the bait.

he is also showing the worlds poorest performing ensemble

[CAPE]

This is a pretty flat ass ridge- Look at the trough in the SW.. follow the height lines and ignore the colors.. Verbatim we get snow (as far south as S VA) during this period.

[yoda]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

where do you see a SE ridge?

He mentioned GEFS and you posted GEPS