January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

53 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Around 60 can still work out later down the line, but if it’s within a degree or two of 70 then it’s pretty much the kiss of death for the remainder of the season. See also 2017, 2020, and 2023.

One day in the upper 60s with a southerly flow ahead of a strong cold front wont be the kiss of death lol.

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Euro is back to giving us a dusting Saturday night 

Just can’t quit this storm. Little bit of phasing was all it took to get a bit of action back. Having something to track is half the fun for me so I appreciate the digital entertainment 

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Around 60 can still work out later down the line, but if it’s within a degree or two of 70 then it’s pretty much the kiss of death for the remainder of the season. See also 2017, 2020, and 2023.

Go ahead and give your self a weenie emojie for this. 

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Euro is back to giving us a dusting Saturday night 

much improved 

[CAPE]

I'll just casually drop this here with no commentary.

@Ralph Wiggum

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Updated Cansips 5H fwiw. This is the link to January and you can go from there.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026010100&fh=0

Temps:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026010100&fh=0

Precip (dry)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026010100&fh=0

EDIT: Niño!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026010100&fh=11

Holy +PDO Nino

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'll just casually drop this here with no commentary.

@Ralph Wiggum

There it is. One of, if not the more likely ways we could win this month. Not a monster storm look but would fit the Nina climo with a SWFE. Lets ride.

Eta: -epo, neutral/slight -pna, split flow energy coming out of SW US, flattish SER, GL ridhing.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Holy +PDO Nino

We cant figure out mid January now we r hanging hope on a 26-27 enso event?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We cant figure out mid January now we r hanging hope on a 26-27 enso event?

no, I don’t buy that at all lol. The CANSIPS was honking its horn on a +PDO nino last year as well and that forecast sucked lol

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There it is. One of, if not the more likely ways we could win this month. Not a monster storm look but would fit the Nina climo with a SWFE. Lets ride.

Eta: -epo, neutral/slight -pna, split flow energy coming out of SW US, flattish SER, GL ridhing.

 That’s a good look. Some of us need to realize that 90% of our snow comes from imperfect patterns

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

no, I don’t buy that at all lol. The CANSIPS was honking its horn on a +PDO nino last year as well and that forecast sucked lol

Historics argue we are in a real good spot next winter.  The weakening PDO the past two winters now coupled with the La Nina strength as of 12/31 in 3.4 argues we would see a Nino somewhere in the 0.5-1.2 range next winter and it would likely be able to couple with the atmosphere vs the 18-19 event.  There has never been a Nino over 1.2 the ensuing winter when we've had Nina numbers where they were on 12/31.  Almost all of the Mod-Strong events had either cold neutral or just below that.

[Terpeast]

New 12z gefs trending for more NS interaction on the 4th. 

New run

Old 12z run yesterday

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, bncho said:

 That’s a good look. Some of us need to realize that 90% of our snow comes from imperfect patterns

Some of us also need to realize the SER is not going anywhere. Basic Nina climo. The key is when/if GL ridging/-epo/hudson bay pv displacement can squash the SER at times and allow for something to ride along the flattened gradient extending sw->ne. This isnt a big storm look necessarily (though always a chance) but a more Nina-esque way to pad our seasonal snowfall.

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There it is. One of, if not the more likely ways we could win this month. Not a monster storm look but would fit the Nina climo with a SWFE. Lets ride.

Eta: -epo, neutral/slight -pna, split flow energy coming out of SW US, flattish SER, GL ridhing.

Yup. Exactly what we were discussing earlier, and why we don't necessarily want a +PNA with an EPO ridge. A Slightly -NAO. Could use a little stronger to flatten the SER more and encourage waves to track to our south.

[MillvilleWx]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'll just casually drop this here with no commentary.

@Ralph Wiggum

Damn. What a classic look to score around here in January. We actually do decent with well-defined SWFE looks like this. I dig it 

[bncho]

lol notice how when the good posters post the real facts the mood goes up? just weenies overexaggerating everything loll

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, bncho said:

much improved 

Start a thread. Euro leading the way. GFS playing catch up.

[CAPE]

^might as well since we are apparently heading into a total shit the blinds pattern with nothing to track for ages.

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Start a thread. Euro leading the way. GFS playing catch up.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

49 minutes ago, bncho said:

Holy +PDO Nino

Bring it on! See this is why at first I wasn't even gonna give this winter the time of day and just track the PDO ahead of what looks like a possible niño next year (but then the cold and slightly snowy start reeled me in, lol) I really want us to have a better swing at than the hostile -PDO of the 23-24 niño that couldn't do jack diddly. I feel more confident in next year breaking our above average drought than this year.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

 

See this is where the forum divides. The snow climo for south of Baltimore to NOVA has been better for almost 10 years. The person who made that joke thread for the northern half of the forum wasn't completely wrong!

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

See this is where the forum divides. The snow climo for south of Baltimore to NOVA has been better for almost 10 years. The person who made that joke thread for the northern half of the forum wasn't completely wrong!

I think what you mean to say is that places to the south(and east) have been at or above climo for those locations while places NW have largely been below for those areas. There is a significant difference in what is 'normal' snowfall for southern DE compared to places NW of Baltimore. Pretty sure PSU has had more snow than Lewes every winter since 2017(except maybe one).

[Blizzard of 93]

12z EPS & 12z Canadian ensemble also are indicating that we should be back in the tracking business in the day 10 to 15 period.

[Ji]

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z EPS & 12z Canadian ensemble also are indicating that we should be back in the tracking business in the day 10 to 15 period.

the problem is we lose half of winter getting there

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the problem is we lose half of winter getting there

I get it, but December was the coldest December since 2010, had snow showers, snow squall, decent snow event here,  measured 4.5 inches. The coldest and snowiest part of the winter may still be ahead. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Another generally warmer than yesterday run on the weeklies. Hopefully climo temps, which are favored, will do the trick.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z EPS & 12z Canadian ensemble also are indicating that we should be back in the tracking business in the day 10 to 15 period.

Gefs still suck by the end of the run unfortunately. 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs still suck by the end of the run unfortunately. 

2 out of 3 ain’t bad…

Also, @CAPE posted a good look on the GEFS a little earlier for around the 12th.

[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Another generally warmer run on the weeklies. Hopefully climo temps, which are favored, will do the trick.

Weeklies have generally proved to be about worthless, especially beyond week 3. Heck, we keep seeing changes for week 2.