January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's understandable to a point, we've been stuck in a nearly decade long pattern of fails and heart breaking last minute rug pulls. That being said, the hissy fits over a single op model run beyond HR240 not showing a Top 10 Miller A are exhausting.

I feel like many are chasing a 20”+ big dog and anything less is a rug (even something close to a 4-8er)

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I feel like many are chasing a 20”+ big dog and anything less is a rug (even something close to a 4-8er)

We usually get a big one once a decade and we’re nearing a decade since the last one.

[stormy]

The GEM at 240 could be on to something.  Southern Arkansas to Myrtle Beach. This is not far from where the EURO was 24 hrs. ago. 

Verification at this range is comparable to the GFS. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

We usually get a big one once a decade and we’re nearing a decade since the last one.

Yeah. I get it. Really do. But this is a la nina. Adjust expectations accordingly. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

The GEM at 240 could be on to something.  Southern Arkansas to Myrtle Beach. This is not far from where the EURO was 24 hrs. ago. 

Verification at this range is comparable to the GFS. 

GEM has been better than the GFS of late. JB has posted this on Twitter, but I don't feel comfortable sharing the tweet or a screenshot because his post is somewhat unhinged.

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah. I get it. Really do. But this is a la nina. Adjust expectations accordingly. 

I’m personally not expecting it, however it has also been 30 years since the last time a Niña delivered to that level so law of averages may be at play.

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah. I get it. Really do. But this is a la nina. Adjust expectations accordingly. 

its a nina but the upcoming pattern isnt really nina esque. We actually got snow in January 2024 during a bit nino in a nina type temporary pattern

[clueless]

FYI: Models are waiting for @stormtrackerto get back if you are looking for dark blues on the ops. 

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GEM has been better than the GFS of late. JB has posted this on Twitter, but I don't feel comfortable sharing the tweet or a screenshot because his post is somewhat unhinged.

I get your drift. 

I don't put the GEM down like some do. Honestly, it sometimes outperforms both the EURO and GFS, especially with thermals.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

I get your drift. 

I don't put the GEM down like some do. Honestly, it sometimes outperforms both the EURO and GFS, especially with thermals.

GEM has a history of detecting some potent northern stream events. It did well with Valentine's Day 2007, the second Feb 2010 event, 1/26/11, and the Valentines' Day 2014 storm.

[Ji]

Euro AI has a very nice storm similar to CMC

[T. August]

12z gefs has a nice signal Jan 7/8.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro AI has a very nice storm similar to CMC

Has 3 storms between the 8th and 13th haha 

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro AI has a very nice storm similar to CMC

Too bad its rain 

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro AI has a very nice storm similar to CMC

Good to see some agreement. 

15 minutes ago, T. August said:

12z gefs has a nice signal Jan 7/8.

I know it's an old adage, but I trust op and ensemble guidance at 00z/12z much more beyond HR 120 because they have the addition of the upper air data. It also mitigates the sensation of rug pulls every 6hrs. Once you get inside D5/HR120, the 06/18z guidance has more value. Just my personal opinion.

[Eskimo Joe]

RE: 12z Canadian

Move the antedecent high pressure just 200-400 miles west and that storm at HR 240 is a KU event.

[Eskimo Joe]

19 minutes ago, T. August said:

12z gefs has a nice signal Jan 7/8.

So do the 12z Canadian ensembles.

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Too bad its rain 

Nope. It's a nice hit. 

 

[Ji]

Too bad its rain 

Id that’s rain we’re done forever

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Id that’s rain we’re done forever

Rain per this run but doesn’t matter 

 

[frd]

Looks nice. The Greenland block is moving WSW by early Jan.  As for specifics, just be happy we have a chance to score in the coming weeks.    

 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Rain per this run but doesn’t matter 

 

Snow for our back yards verbatim 

[mitchnick]

Just now, frd said:

Looks nice. The Greenland block is moving WSW by early Jan.  As for specifics, just be happy we have a chance to score in the coming weeks.    

 

Prom week early this year?

[NorthArlington101]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nope. It's a nice hit. 

 

It's close but verbatim it isn't- though I don't exactly trust the AIFS on p-type. As was already shared the surface is too warm, whether you buy it or not is up to you

 

FWIW I am very bullish for January and am mostly just trolling JI

[bncho]

12z GEFS really lit up

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro op has a low offshore Jan 7-9 timeframe. Close to something here folks.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Don't forget that excitement was initiated by the click-baiting internet mets. And remember I posted in response to a decent 5H on the Eps it was important to know how it got there.

A few of us were also urging 'cautious' optism having been thru this year-in and year-out. But yeah, the social media warriors were hammering on 100% certainty. Still optimistic on my end at least, albeit tiptoeing cautiously in here.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro op has a low offshore Jan 7-9 timeframe. Close to something here folks.

move that trough 150-200 miles west and it's bingo for us

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is the optimism for January genuinely gone or are the weenies just having another hissy fit?

The latter of course. Nothing has really changed. Just an op run didnt show porn.

[AlexD1990]

Just now, bncho said:

move that trough 150-200 miles west and it's bingo for us

easily accomplished at this range. The signals are still there, and haven't changed much over the past few days from what i have seen. People only setting themselves up for disappointment if they live and die by verbatim model output past D4-5.