January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Next Sunday situation looks a little more coherent on the Goofus, still a viable option

Ukie looks good

[WeatherX]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie looks good

Only goes to 168 but did look like there was a shot

[Typhoon Tip]

Should the 29-02 not materialize ... there is also, albeit vague due to the long range, a signal emerging for the 6/7/8th off February.   

 

[WeatherX]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Should the 29-02 not materialize ... there is also, albeit vague due to the long range, a signal emerging for the 6/7/8th off February.   

 

That's one of the sickest patterns I have ever seen on that 12z GFS run

[Typhoon Tip]

any shore denizens see arctic sea smoke this morning ?   

one of the most breath taking spectacles I've ever seen was a bitter cold dawn back in 1983 ... Standing on Front Beach in Rockport as in the early morning the sun illuminated the dance of steamnados; they sinuously moved past one another in ghostly silence.  Sometimes merging...some times disagreeing - and their arguments resulted in both disappearing..  It was like looking at a ball room of waltzing spirits.  It's truly an amazing sight.    But things have to be just right.  It can't be windy.  It's like only subtle movement of deeply gelid air as it passes over a glassy calm sea surface.  And the horizon sun's unobstructedly penetrating its corpuscular rays through the scene.  It's a very fragile moment, but an arresting vantage of natural art in motion. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WeatherX said:

That's one of the sickest patterns I have ever seen on that 12z GFS run

It's about as potential saturated as Earth can really produce.   It's really rather remarkable that the GFS so cleverly devises means to maintain gas and match at such close proximity, yet nary do twain shall meet

We'll see about that... I dunno -   

I was talking to Das the other night, who nicely described the setting as "there should be storm right there".   Well, we're seeing them attempted...This run's back to 01/02 after losing it last run(s).  Go back yet a run before those, and there it is again.  The other guidance have been more and less guilty of the same frets and starts.  The consistency is lacking ...yet.

[ariof]

Euro says nah

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ariof said:

Euro says nah

Says yah for NewFoundland.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Says yah for NewFoundland.

That run is my fear. Cold and dry.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

That run is my fear. Cold and dry.

I wouldn't worry too much yet....give until at least Tuesday.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

any shore denizens see arctic sea smoke this morning ?   

one of the most breath taking spectacles I've ever seen was a bitter cold dawn back in 1983 ... Standing on Front Beach in Rockport as the early morning  the sun illuminated the dance of steamnados; they sinuously moved past one another in ghostly silence.  Sometimes merging...some times disagreeing - and their arguments resulted in both disappearing..  It was like looking at a ball room of waltzing spirits.  It's truly an amazing sight.    But things have to be just right.  It can't be windy.  It's like only subtle movement of deeply gelid air as it passes over a glassy calm sea surface.  And the horizon sun's unobstructedly penetrating its corpuscular rays through the scene.  It's a very fragile moment, but an arresting vantage of natural art in motion. 

I know you are a writer. This is some very nice prose

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Says yah for NewFoundland.

The euros AI cousin, as of yesterday was backing the storm closer and closer in. Did it go way out as well?

[Go Kart Mozart]

Euro AI monster for the 4th.  A bit like December 1981.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Euro AI monster for the 4th.  A bit like December 1981.

Dec '81  ... I moved to New England in the summer of '83.  Please provide some background ?  dates and such ... I'll look that up in the NCEP charts Library. 

In any event, it's really centered around the 1st, give or take, then again out toward the 7th.  But hell... just give the model's credit for picking "some"thing up at all. Geesh.  It's like they seeded the models with anti-storm coagulant.   The models are like trying to gaslight us into believing that rocket fuel isn't flammable -

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dec '81  ... I moved to New England in the summer of '83.  Please provide some background ?  dates and such ... I'll look that up in the NCEP charts Library. 

In any event, it's really centered around the 1st, give or take, then again out toward the 7th.  But hell... just give the model's credit for picking "some"thing up at all. Geesh.  It's like they seeded the models with anti-storm coagulant.   The models are like trying to gaslight us into believing that rocket fuel isn't flammable -

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1981/us1206.php
 

Feb ‘99 was similar too

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1999/us0225.php

[Damage In Tolland]

Watch the Thursday system to at least drop light snows 

[Go Kart Mozart]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dec '81  ... I moved to New England in the summer of '83.  Please provide some background ?  dates and such ... I'll look that up in the NCEP charts Library. 

In any event, it's really centered around the 1st, give or take, then again out toward the 7th.  But hell... just give the model's credit for picking "some"thing up at all. Geesh.  It's like they seeded the models with anti-storm coagulant.   The models are like trying to gaslight us into believing that rocket fuel isn't flammable -

To the best of my recollection (and it is foggy at this point), it was a clipper that went straight east of the VA capes by about 200 miles, then made a hard left turn to the north.  The best precip shield was NW of the surface low., similar to what AI is showing.  30" in Newport, 10" NECT, 6" back to Springfield.  I do not recall Boston...but it was rain in Maine.  On or about 12/5/81.

[78Blizzard]

The GFS is saying that we will get a reinforcing shot of arctic air after next week, forcing storms to our south ots.

[MJO812]

AI euro has a snowstorm on Feb 3