January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

WoR looks best due to the better dynamics seemingly going from NJ to SNH or so. You’ll probably get a couple or maybe more. That’s all I mean.
This coming from someone referring to SWey all the time.  

That’s all I was saying man . It seemed like you were saying it’s all WOR for snow. This morning you said post pics of your coating etc. Anyway.. hopefully everyone can get snow this weekend. From one or both systems . 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Deep winter with a good coastal for the 25th.

Skynet even better and has a biggie signal for the 25th. Lets gizzo!

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s all I was saying man . It seemed like you were saying it’s all WOR for snow. This morning you said post pics of your coating etc. Anyway.. hopefully everyone can get snow this weekend. From one or both systems . 

My guess is Saturday is the only system.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS is storm after storm

Hmmm ...Maybe I was a bit hasty converting my snowblower to a rototiller. Did do a pretty good job on the tomato bed!

 

 

[vortex95]

42 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

Love @vortex95just trolling @CoastalWx     Does @CoastalWxreturn the favor in May when the High Risk day in Oklahoma fizzles 

It's not trolling. We go back and forth via email all the time. 

Oh yes, CoastalWx has given me the third degree before about how "we never get big tstms" here.  Until 6/1/2011, then he had a change of heart!   Then he got a +CG shock on his PC from a wicked close strike, and freaked when the outside transformer keep arcing.  And the tornado in Weymouth in Aug 2023.  He started to go "hmmmm" and then I showed him the long-term CG plot for New England, and how there is a local max right in his area S of BOS.

High risk days often FAIL miserably, esp. in the Plains.  I'd take a SLGT or MDT risk any day instead.  My best chase days were in SLGT.  Isolated supercells way better logistically, other than the chase hordes.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

It's not trolling. We go back and forth via email all the time. 

Oh yes, CoastalWx has given me the third degree before about how "we never gets big tstms" here.  Until 6/1/2011, then he had a change of heart!   Then he got a +CG shock on his PC from a wicked close strike, and freaked when the outside transformer keep arcing.  And the tornado in Weymouth in Aug 2023.  He started to go "hmmmm" and then I showed him the long-term CG plot for New England, and how there is a local max right in his area S of BOS.

High risk days often FAIL miserably, esp. in the Plains.  I'd take a SLGT or MDT risk any day instead.  My best chase days were in SLGT.  Isolated supercells way better logistically, other than the chase hordes.

What is the age difference between you two? It seems like a bit of a Belichek / GF deal?

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What is the age difference between you two? It seems like a bit of a Belichek / GF deal?

Maybe like 13 years or so?

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

It's not trolling. We go back and forth via email all the time. 

Oh yes, CoastalWx has given me the third degree before about how "we never gets big tstms" here.  Until 6/1/2011, then he had a change of heart!   Then he got a +CG shock on his PC from a wicked close strike, and freaked when the outside transformer keep arcing.  And the tornado in Weymouth in Aug 2023.  He started to go "hmmmm" and then I showed him the long-term CG plot for New England, and how there is a local max right in his area S of BOS.

High risk days often FAIL miserably, esp. in the Plains.  I'd take a SLGT or MDT risk any day instead.  My best chase days were in SLGT.  Isolated supercells way better logistically, other than the chase hordes.

Was the one high risk…feels like forever now but maybe 2019? People were going insane because the HRRR was going bonkers with these warm sector supercells and I think a high risk was issued and virtually nothing happened. I think after this it became apparent the HRRR had a bias for supercells south of the warm front well away from any forcing 

[vortex95]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He gets mad when a poo poo our severe weather 

And in DC, it's not as good as I thought, at least on the N side of the Beltway.  The downslope effect from the high terrain not far to the W stiffs me in Silver Spring a lot.  Just E blows up big time on the Chesapeake dew point front/breeze.  Seems like about 20 mi N and 20 mi S of me do well more often.  Just location I guess. The thing is I am at 390 ft elevation, so not total downslope.

Nevertheless, I have had some doozies and several supercells pass right over me.  Had LTG hit the building and for the first time two years ago I actually heard arcing ZZZTTTT!!! (not click-pops, much louder and distinct) from a strike about 100 ft away.  And thunder acoustics unlike anything I had heard before a couple of times.
 

[vortex95]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What is the age difference between you two? It seems like a bit of a Belichek / GF deal?

11 years

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

11 years

I think he’s 47.. so 58? Another few years till retirement!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think he’s 47.. so 58? Another few years till retirement!

46

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

46

You old 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You old 

Aging exponentially with these effing winters 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Wow, that much optimism so soon?  Just how many times the op runs have had something "out there" in the long range, and never deliver.  I don't see any real change to the NAMR 500 mean pattern UFN.  In others words, MOTS (more of the same).  "Cold 'n dry, kiss'em GOODBYE!" 

CoastalWx is getting so *sick* of these nickel and dime events, like what is coming up on Saturday.  He can't even enjoy that in Weymouth b/c it will be too mild!

I'll bet you a hundo I get at least 6" of snow between now and the end of January.

[CoastalWx]

40 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

It's not trolling. We go back and forth via email all the time. 

Oh yes, CoastalWx has given me the third degree before about how "we never get big tstms" here.  Until 6/1/2011, then he had a change of heart!   Then he got a +CG shock on his PC from a wicked close strike, and freaked when the outside transformer keep arcing.  And the tornado in Weymouth in Aug 2023.  He started to go "hmmmm" and then I showed him the long-term CG plot for New England, and how there is a local max right in his area S of BOS.

High risk days often FAIL miserably, esp. in the Plains.  I'd take a SLGT or MDT risk any day instead.  My best chase days were in SLGT.  Isolated supercells way better logistically, other than the chase hordes.

I think it becomes more favorable for at least some overrunning events later next week and beyond. 

[vortex95]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think he’s 47.. so 58? Another few years till retirement!

57 still.

[kdxken]

Well I think that's all she wrote with the warm up. 29° feels like 21°. Not a lot of 40s in the extended. Or 30s for that matter.

 

[ORH_wxman]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Aging exponentially with these effing winters 

“You chose poorly”

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Well I think that's all she wrote with the warm up. 29° feels like 21°. Not a lot of 40s in the extended. Or 30s for that matter.

 

Lots of highs below zero . Chainsaws put away for quite some time .