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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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OP GFS with another round of hits next week and weekend. Been a lot of that recently which is something that we hadn’t seen much of so far this winter. We’ve had fleeting larger threats but not a lot of consistent longer range storms that show up multiple runs across different guidance. So that keeps me optimistic. 

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The January formula for having a chance to save this winter:

1. Don’t get skunked Sunday (at least give a chunk of the region a few inches…doesn’t need to be massive)

2. Grab a warning event out of the SWFE pattern late next week/weekend

3. Grab a major event out of the El Niño +PNA pattern between 1/26-1/30. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The January formula for having a chance to save this winter:

1. Don’t get skunked Sunday (at least give a chunk of the region a few inches…doesn’t need to be massive)

2. Grab a warning event out of the SWFE pattern late next week/weekend

3. Grab a major event out of the El Niño +PNA pattern between 1/26-1/30. 

What about not getting skunked Saturday?

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, the op runs are finally showing some hits now. Now we can officially switch gears.

Wow, that much optimism so soon?  Just how many times the op runs have had something "out there" in the long range, and never deliver.  I don't see any real change to the NAMR 500 mean pattern UFN.  In others words, MOTS (more of the same).  "Cold 'n dry, kiss'em GOODBYE!" :(

CoastalWx is getting so *sick* of these nickel and dime events, like what is coming up on Saturday.  He can't even enjoy that in Weymouth b/c it will be too mild!

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not sure why you keep doing this . You look like an idiot. It’s 1-3/2-4 most of interior SNE up to near Ray . The other Mets told you earlier 

Because that’s where every model has the best stuff. Look at a model for once. Congrats on some snow.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Because that’s where every model has the best stuff. Look at a model for once. Congrats on some snow.

Every single model has a few inches right thru my area. Literally . I don’t know what else to tell you . There’s a thread for this . So if you want to continue take it there. 

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every single model has a few inches right thru my area. Literally . I don’t know what else to tell you . There’s a thread for this . So if you want to continue take it there. 

You need to relax. You don’t have to jackpot every single storm.

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