moneypitmike Posted yesterday at 03:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:01 PM 31 minutes ago, jbenedet said: NAM laughably too cold for surface temps today… These clouds are breaking… widespread mid 40’s easy and 50 within reach at many spots in SNE. Sun and blue sky here in PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted yesterday at 03:04 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:04 PM Clouds and raw as f**k in Simsbury, 29 degrees. Great morning for an outdoor service call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted yesterday at 03:08 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:08 PM 3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Clouds and raw as f**k in Simsbury, 29 degrees. Great morning for an outdoor service call What kind of service do you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted yesterday at 03:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:10 PM 1 minute ago, doug1991 said: What kind of service do you do? I won’t go there 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 03:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:12 PM 8 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Clouds and raw as f**k in Simsbury, 29 degrees. Great morning for an outdoor service call yeah, noticing on sat/vis loop ...there's some environmental tussle going on where the S/SW flow is running over the top of this shallow radiative cooled dense BL air. instantiating a very low very shallow overrunning lift. Probably not a well modeled circumstantial feed-back. The strata that is the result is like super thin but with a low early Jan sun angle, that's enough to blot out and shade. if we can keep the mid and upper level clouds at bay, eventually we'll warm enough that this will mix out but some places may get a couple hours of ceiling first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted yesterday at 03:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:12 PM Wpc overnight does have a low almost on cape cod for the 15th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted yesterday at 03:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:12 PM 3 minutes ago, doug1991 said: What kind of service do you do? I'm an electrician 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted yesterday at 03:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:17 PM 28 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Good point. To be sure I’m thinking most commonly 43-45 readings, for the region. a solid +10 today Dews will also be rising all day so it will compound the real feel. Legit warmth on this merit as well… Gotta get outside… Walking the dog yesterday felt so different compared to recent weeks. Sun, Temps near 40, no wind... today will be even more springlike 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 03:27 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:27 PM not that anyone asked but ... i feel now until Feb 8 is winter regardless of temperature anomalies. it's really more of whether the pattern is compensating for the sun challenges at this latitude/dates. That doesn't make it non-winter though. the earth really needs to get it's tilt across whatever degrees from vertical it is on or around Feb 8 before i consider non-winter. "consider" - that doen't mean declared. It depends on the year at hand. Obviously, in 2015... Feb 8th didn't mean shit. But, other years, you feel the sun and south side flower beds have little crokus shoots. the snow's been beaten back to the shady woods and you're putting up +5s ... it's not very winter like when it's like that and then combined, the sun's left the min and soaks us. so it depends on the year. but without the sun, heh... it's winter. it's just a matter of whether the winter is what we want it do be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted yesterday at 03:27 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:27 PM 33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: GFS' recent runs hinting at that ... My only point before is that there's wave interference that is negative. That trough totality, albeit containing some potent embedded S/W at beta scales, is in fact positively tilted. The QUE vortex up there is in bad spot climo and physics-wise. These aren't really disputable. But he brought up a good point about looping and seeing the history, and the wind barbs are turning more S along and off-shore, so that's indicative of slowing - or having the ability to do so - the progressive nature overall. The WI dive probably catches, and then the phase ends up potency has enough - your "hook and latter" low fits that. But ... shit this can all change of course. it's fun to jockey the model runs LOL no doubt, could be one of the more exciting 12z runs in a long time, or just more of the same, quick tease and disappointment ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 03:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:31 PM 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: no doubt, could be one of the more exciting 12z runs in a long time, or just more of the same, quick tease and disappointment ... LOL ... haha yup, set up the easy recliner with towels, tie off the upper arm with the rubber...and start tapping the hit vein, the dopa delivery is always here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted yesterday at 03:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:32 PM 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: no doubt, could be one of the more exciting 12z runs in a long time, or just more of the same, quick tease and disappointment ... Biggest run of our lives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted yesterday at 03:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:34 PM 7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: no doubt, could be one of the more exciting 12z runs in a long time, or just more of the same, quick tease and disappointment ... 12z ICON with the teaser but never really gets anything going for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted yesterday at 03:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:36 PM 26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I won’t go there Oh boy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted yesterday at 03:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:38 PM 28 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I'm an electrician Nice. I've done that in this kind of weather. Installing a service/Ect on the outside of a house in cold weather isn't fun, then again crawling thru an attic in the summer is no picnic either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 03:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:49 PM 36 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I'm an electrician So giving out The Shocker? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted yesterday at 03:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:51 PM 40 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I won’t go there Only my husband knows... 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 03:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:52 PM 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So giving out The Shocker? 2-pink, 1-stink? Eh...in his case, 3-stink. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted yesterday at 03:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:55 PM 37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Walking the dog yesterday felt so different compared to recent weeks. Sun, Temps near 40, no wind... today will be even more springlike Yea these winter days are good. So important. Today’s got a great vibe 37/31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted yesterday at 04:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:09 PM 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So giving out The Shocker? Checking out his shorts? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted yesterday at 04:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:10 PM 12z GFS won't get it done this run for the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS won't get it done this run for the 16th Just where we want it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted yesterday at 04:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:17 PM 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just where we want it. Congrats Hatteras that is a hell of vort though, Ends up a cape scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just where we want it. Ugh. That’s so wound up it’s gonna interfere with the follow up wave… That one I like for the better long wave placement… But that’s another potential issue gotta watch now… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted yesterday at 04:20 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:20 PM That first s/w tugs the baroclinic zone a bit east so the follow up one ends up east as well, But this is real close to a bomb up here as long as its not LBSW before hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted yesterday at 04:21 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:21 PM 15th/16th—That GFS run is very -NAO ish I don’t buy this evolution. Looks like a step further away from reality. The NAO forecast had another stepwise increase well into positive territory before our players are on the field.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted yesterday at 04:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:31 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 04:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:31 PM 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 15th/16th—That GFS run is very -NAO ish I don’t buy this evolution. Looks like a step further away from reality. The NAO forecast had another stepwise increase well into positive territory before our players are on the field.. If you expand that product to the charts for 7 and 10 day lags you can see the recency of error. I've noticed that every now and again those curves divorce pretty extreme. It's like the ens have memory that is cumulative - and then every couple of weeks it resets... This is particularly true with the PNA. What's weird, the NAO is the more stochastic, exhibiting larger variance and pour predictive skill in general - yet, the errors at D7 and 10 make it look like the GEFs must be an oracle. Bull shiiiiiiit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted yesterday at 04:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:32 PM And then there's the 18th ha ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted yesterday at 04:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:32 PM GFS trying for the 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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