January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Shit snow totals but I’m on like day 33 of snow cover, lol. I don’t think I’ve had more than 4” OTG at any time either. Normally 33 days at this point would mean a great start to the winter with likely multiple warning events, but not this year. As much as I hate brown frozen ground, if we are going to get a decent storm next Friday, then I wouldn’t mind starting clean. 

Combination of cold and low solar irradiance has really maximized snow cover.

[dryslot]

14 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I saw freezing fog as part of my forecast too. That should be fun in the morning.

Yeah, Low was 13.8°F this morning, Its a bit slick out there.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, no wonder you've both been so cranky...4 years...

Exactly. Just frustrating and I paid my dues. Especially frustrating when the cape had 6+ I think at least 2 times since.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was a bit surprised it got down to 19.8....figured there would have been a higher launching pad. I'm sure it's mostly fake born of radiational cooling and will be wiped out shortly, but still-

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Exactly. Just frustrating and I paid my dues. Especially frustrating when the cape had 6+ I think at least 2 times since.

I would bet anyone, any amount of money the monkey is long gone by February 1.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Low was 13.8°F this morning, Its a bit slick out there.

20.5° here

There’s some decent rime on the trees (for our standards)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

20.5° here

There’s some decent rime on the trees (for our standards)

No doubt it's radiational cooling when I am lower than you lol

[Ginx snewx]

Holy! why look at this Jeremiah 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Holy! why look at this Jeremiah 

Put the lips' n' hips on ice, the dog logs should be covered soon.

[Lava Rock]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Low was 13.8°F this morning, Its a bit slick out there.

what a pit. 29f for us

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No doubt it's radiational cooling when I am lower than you lol

Mid level clouds now and we fogged up early. But yeah, I saw wx2fish was colder than me for awhile too. There’s a bunch of WU stations down the hill from me in the river valleys and they’re usually a good 3-5° cooler on rad nights. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Very low confidence on this....but the 2013 analog that I discussed with Will is in the back of my mind and we do have some catching up to do. I like early March better, but eyes should be peeled in February.

I was so torn on including that year in my February composite, but opted against at the last moment bc it was too warm ENSOish...but I wouldn't argue with anyone that did.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Freezing fog looked nice in the trees this morning.  26°.

 

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy! why look at this Jeremiah 

There’s a 3rd s/w that appears would phase in on that run…that GL one is potent and diving in quickly. Someone run the dgex off this so we can see what happens. 

[Typhoon Tip]

man these operational runs are all fucked up with wave spacing/interference schemes.   

The indexes nailed this period... well, so far - nothings verified yet. But the +PNA, however west biased or whatever is going to happen.   Anyway, the best fit for the amplifying +PNA at mid month is actually the 24th phantom system on the GFS' 00z.  But by then, the +PNA is in a state of decay - which is also not a certainty anyway.    It's like we should be seeing a 24th type look on the 14-15-16 period but the field is mired down by wave space issues which is stopping that from happening.

The 00z GFS was dubious with that 970mb micro cyclone.  It's nice eye candy sitting there with category 2 hurricane winds and choke snow a stones through E of Logan like that, but whenever you see a system that is dimensional-challenged in the midst of a large/huge amplification like that it is always suspect and pretty much never happens.  It's like the model physics are responding to the immense volatility of the total pattern, and then that triggers a systems not well coupled to the that larger field - otherwise...the system should be larger.   Like the 20fukum4th! 

uh-nnoying. 

You can see the wave interference in the ens means of both the EPS and GEFs.  There is a deep anomaly at the longitude of the Tenn. Valley on the 15th, and then while the ridge stays fixed in position out west, the nadir is suddenly repositioned back toward St Louise on the 17th.  That's indicative of wave contention in the means.   That's prooobably why they have been having issues getting more coherent with any cyclone signals.

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Put the lips' n' hips on ice, the dog logs should be covered soon.

One can hope! dog logs and all. Maybe you can write an epic novel about a 6 to 10 inch snow. Look forward to spending an hour trying to decipher if there's an actual forecast in there without any if ands or buts. 

[cut]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't mean "deathblow" to winter...as in winter over; quite the opposite. It's just getting started, as frustrating as it's been.

So a miserable March?? Was looking for a solid 6 seven weeks and then early Spring. Oh well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

One can hope! dog logs and all. Maybe you can write an epic novel about a 6 to 10 inch snow. Look forward to spending an hour trying to decipher if there's an actual forecast in there without any if ands or buts. 

Well, I always include a map, so if that isn't clear enough for you...IDk.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s a 3rd s/w that appears would phase in on that run…that GL one is potent and diving in quickly. Someone run the dgex off this so we can see what happens. 

nah, too positively sloped overall.

those wave spaces are negatively interfering with one another.  

it's not those that is the problem... it's big to small that's the issue.  There's not enough s/w ridging rolling out ahead of the whole structure... The flow is angular but flat leaving the eastern sea-board.  It's doing that because the flow was originally more ridged there, and then it got compressed... so the flow is fast/too fast, such that when that amplitude then arrives, it can differentiate the field and cause WAA to form which then creates the S/W ridging...

this is complex to explain and most people don't get it.  they just get angry and think your trolling but that's going anywhere very special wit that leading

[jbenedet]

There’s red flags with that euro run. Mid levels look juicy but beneath you can see the BZ is not at all where we want it. 
 

we’re actually between two zones, one indicating it’s taking the surface reflection well ots whereas the other well to our west and indicating warm sector/ptype issues.

 

I’m maintaining I do not like this one at all. It’s a lot further from where it needs to be for a significant snowstorm than the 6z euro mid level depiction is reflecting. 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

There’s red flags with that euro run. Mid levels look juicy but beneath you can see the BZ is not at all where we want it. 
 

we’re actually between two zones, one indicating it’s, the other well to our west and indicating warm sector/ptype issues.

 

I’m maintaining I do not like this one at all. It’s a lot further from where it needs to be for a significant snowstorm that the mid level depiction is reflecting. 

 

Euro verbatim is another 36-48 hrs after that depiction. Airmass is much better then.

[ineedsnow]

driving around this morning and legit everywhere you look is postcard material..  all the trees are frosted and the sunrise was awesome..  

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

nah, too positively sloped overall.

those wave spaces are negatively interfering with one another.  

it's not those that is the problem... it's big to small that's the issue.  There's not enough s/w ridging rolling out ahead of the whole structure... The flow is angular but flat leaving the eastern sea-board.  It's doing that because the flow was originally more ridged there, and then it got compressed... so the flow is fast/too fast, such that when that amplitude then arrives, it can differentiate the field and cause WAA to form which then creates the S/W ridging...

this is complex to explain and most people don't get it.  they just get angry and think your trolling but that's going anywhere very special wit that leading

Not sure I agree. I think it’s in the process of tilting neg quickly. Did you loop it? I mean, I don’t doubt that it may end up a salad of interfering shit streaks, but I thought this run was ready to blow up.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I always include a map, so if that isn't clear enough for you...IDk.

Lol by the time I get to the map its bedtime j/k

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

driving around this morning and legit everywhere you look is postcard material..  all the trees are frosted and the sunrise was awesome..  

Spectacular looks. Ice castle like 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not sure I agree. I think it’s in the process of tilting neg quickly. Did you loop it? I mean, I don’t doubt that it may end up a salad of interfering shit streaks, but I thought this run was ready to blow up.

Pretty obvious to me anyway but what do I know. All I now is one look and it was tent material 

[Damage In Tolland]

I think the 15th storm is legit 

[jbenedet]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro verbatim is another 36-48 hrs after that depiction. Airmass is much better then.

Looking at 6z EC AIFS - I don’t like it….

The early mid level cut-off in northern stream is another red flag. You’re going to get much more shunting east with the coastal than meridional mid level ridge development can compensate for  over the western Atlantic.

Maybe a cape scrape?

 

I’m focusing on the 18th… 

[WinterWolf]

Pope, Also have to understand/take into consideration, what you’re seeing  currently, may not be what actually may be happening 3-5 days from today. 

[jbenedet]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Pope, Also have to understand/take into consideration, what you’re seeing  currently, may not be what actually may be happening 3-5 days from today. 

predictions made with present data. Not making predictions based on the data changing…no evidence for that.
 

Always the case. But looking at the large scale features and the agreement on them across important guidance at this stage…. It’s very low odds of a big snowstorm. My take.