January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[MANDA]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Yikes, this is why 95 percent of the population hates snow 

Can you imagine being stuck in that in this kind of cold?  Gotta be 6+ hours until they get traffic moving again I would think?  

[MJO812]

Brooklyn lol

[Jersey_Snowhole]

24 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

With ratios the entire 95 corridor gets 50+ inches lol


.

Yeah never will happen but fun to imagine 

[Dark Star]

43 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

 

 

she's been taking care of family with poor health, flowers and snowfall wont get me too far. think im gonna start searching and possibly pull the trigger tomorrow? just incase

 

thanks to you guys! also MAJOR shout out for not sending me to oscar meyer's weenie land

 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

 

He's vegan, have some class.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration is monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

Ummmm, You get your girlfriend to change her birthday to Tuesday

[Prue11]

I will wait until Wednesday/Thursday to take the threat serious. We saw the flip flopping last storm 

[Franklin0529]

7 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Yeah never will happen but fun to image 

Never say never 

[Winterweatherlover]

58 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

This is still 6 days out. This can easily move 100 miles north. All it would take is that strong banana high to be not as strong as currently modeled. Or, the high further north than currently modeled. But I'll leave that to the Mets on here to figure out.

I'm leaning suppression less because of what the OP models are showing this far out and more just the pattern/strength of high/depth of cold. I can't think of the last time NYC saw a significant snowstorm at 10 degrees, we don't have 90s climo anymore. Could it happen? sure I guess.

 

It's also possible the models could be overdoing the high/cold etc.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

So honest question is anyone really concerned about suppression with a 1053 high to the north? 

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I'm leaning suppression less because of what the OP models are showing this far out and more just the pattern/depth of cold. I can't think of the last time NYC saw a significant snowstorm in the single digits, we don't have 90s climo anymore. Could it happen? sure I guess.

Ill have to check and i dont think we'll quite be in the single digitis in the city / metro areas byt of recent Jan 3 2014 comes to mind.  Will need to check  (low teens then)

[vegan_edible]

8 minutes ago, Nibor said:

He's vegan, have some class.

THANK YOU

[TriPol]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

you should start the weekend storm thread ASAP not just because of the snow threat BUT also the incredible arctic airmass that will be in place starting later this week through the weekend.....and once we get past a certain number of pages break it up into part 2 - part 3 etc. etc. like we did for the 2010 Boxing day storm who's thread was started well in advance

Done.

[WeatherGeek2025]

kuchera euro ai clown map... those were 10:1 that u guys posted

[TriPol]

5 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

So honest question is anyone really concerned about suppression with a 1053 high to the north? 

A 1053 mb Arctic high to the north absolutely guarantees cold and it does press the baroclinic zone south, but it does not automatically choke off coastal systems. In fact, highs of that magnitude often enhance the setup by sharpening the thermal gradient and strengthening the coastal front. Suppression becomes a real concern when the high is not only strong but also poorly positioned, centered too far west with confluent flow flattening the downstream wave. That is not what this pattern suggests.

Here, the high acts more like an anchor than a lid. Cold air is locked in, the storm track is displaced south and east, and lows tend to ride the boundary offshore rather than cut inland. That favors snow and keeps systems close enough to matter. You can still miss if a wave stays too far offshore, but that is a track issue, not classic suppression. With a high this strong, the outcome is not rain or nothing. It is snow or a near miss, and NYC sitting near the gradient is exactly where small adjustments can pay off.

[Monty]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

ok amwx family. 

 

i studied photography. i like snow. my understanding of how weather works has greatly improved over the past 3 years ive been on the board but compared to the rest of you... im an idiot

 

i have a flight scheduled to san diego sunday. girlfriend (who is already in SD) birthday celebration is monday

 

should i start thinking about switching my flight to saturday? 

 

pls don't weenie me to oblivion... im vegan

Dude. She will have other birthdays, including one next year. She's not even your wife. Stay home and enjoy what could be historic. Tell her flights canceled it's out of your control and send regards. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, TriPol said:

A 1053 mb Arctic high to the north absolutely guarantees cold and it does press the baroclinic zone south, but it does not automatically choke off coastal systems. In fact, highs of that magnitude often enhance the setup by sharpening the thermal gradient and strengthening the coastal front. Suppression becomes a real concern when the high is not only strong but also poorly positioned, centered too far west with confluent flow flattening the downstream wave. That is not what this pattern suggests.

Here, the high acts more like an anchor than a lid. Cold air is locked in, the storm track is displaced south and east, and lows tend to ride the boundary offshore rather than cut inland. That favors snow and keeps systems close enough to matter. You can still miss if a wave stays too far offshore, but that is a track issue, not classic suppression. With a high this strong, the outcome is not rain or nothing. It is snow or a near miss, and NYC sitting near the gradient is exactly where small adjustments can pay off.

Yes agree rain is not even really a possibility in this setup with a high like that. If the low somehow hugged the coast worst case scenario is sleet but most likely its either heavy snow, light snow on the fringe, or nothing. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

A 1053 mb Arctic high to the north absolutely guarantees cold and it does press the baroclinic zone south, but it does not automatically choke off coastal systems. In fact, highs of that magnitude often enhance the setup by sharpening the thermal gradient and strengthening the coastal front. Suppression becomes a real concern when the high is not only strong but also poorly positioned, centered too far west with confluent flow flattening the downstream wave. That is not what this pattern suggests.

Here, the high acts more like an anchor than a lid. Cold air is locked in, the storm track is displaced south and east, and lows tend to ride the boundary offshore rather than cut inland. That favors snow and keeps systems close enough to matter. You can still miss if a wave stays too far offshore, but that is a track issue, not classic suppression. With a high this strong, the outcome is not rain or nothing. It is snow or a near miss, and NYC sitting near the gradient is exactly where small adjustments can pay off.

Very informative Ty 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Jan 2026 Weekend Event.pdfAnd Central Park does it again. You would think that their ratios should usually fall somewhere in between Newaks and LGA since they are located in the middle.

This is only two events, so a skeptic might say it's just an aberration. Let me assure the doubters it isn't. This happens much more often than it should and rarely the other way around. It all comes down to being sloppy  when or how or how far after an event when they take measurements, or don't at all. This is what happens when you don't have a professional manning the ruler (it's actually a pretty simple device to work with).

 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And Central Park does it again. You would think that their ratios should usually fall somewhere in between Newaks and LGA since they are located in the middle.

This is only two events, so a skeptic might say it's just an aberration. Let me assure the doubters it isn't. This happens much more often than it should and rarely the other way around. It all comes down to being sloppy  when or how or how far after an event when they take measurements, or don't at all. This is what happens when you don't have a professional manning the ruler (it's actually a pretty simple device to work with).

 

 

At this point. Why even pay any attention to what the ass clown who measures in CP says. In a city of 8-9 million people, there's not 1 weather nerd like us that lives nearby that can go stick a ruler in the snow? 

[Tar Heel Snow]

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

At this point. Why even pay any attention to what the ass clown who measures in CP says. In a city of 8-9 million people, there's not 1 weather nerd like us that lives nearby that can go stick a ruler in the snow? 

Its more for almanac and historical purposes

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Well, that tells you what they are thinking.  Of course subject to change if necessary but for now they are thinking max totals south of this forum.

They door leave the door open for some northward adjustments.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[RU848789]

11 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Odd that they wouldn't have the heavy snow outlook up to at least Philly/SNJ given the NBM map showing 6" up to 276/195. 

  

[NEG NAO]

38 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Done.

Thanks - I also like your discussion write up in the new thread - very well written.

[Prue11]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Odd that they wouldn't have the heavy snow outlook up to at least Philly/SNJ given the NBM map showing 6" up to 276/195. 

  

They’re concerned like many others with suppression

[Jt17]

Odd that they wouldn't have the heavy snow outlook up to at least Philly/SNJ given the NBM map showing 6" up to 276/195. 
  

Does the blend of models include AI models too?


.

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Odd that they wouldn't have the heavy snow outlook up to at least Philly/SNJ given the NBM map showing 6" up to 276/195. 

  

Freezing rain all the way down to the central South Carolina coast ? really ?

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

End of run euro ai 

Surprised nobody posted the zoomed in version of the AIFS 360 hour map.  It's insane and I can't imagine it verifying, but it surely shows the potential of the pattern. 

Also, I know this is the NYC forum, but I was wondering if anyone had access to the AIFS ZR maps for the southern US at least for the 1/25 storm, which is looking pretty "real" right now.  The CMC and Euro are bad enough and if they verify, the ice may be the biggest story with this storm (and if the AIFS is right, it'll likely be close to the CMC ice map as they're close on snowfall for 1/25), but given how good the AIFS has been would love to see that map. TIA.

[NEG NAO]

What are Northern  Mid-Atlantic and New England in the dark blue for ? its not clear if its the cold or snow or both