January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Jersey_Snowhole]

gfs very active next week / weekend

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

gfs very active next week / weekend

Yep all the models are

[MJO812]

Gefs is insane

[SnoSki14]

Nice test of the AI models, we'll see if they have a clue

[bluewave]

I think the key next week will be how deep a trough we can get out West. All winter long the models have been too aggressive in digging those troughs beyond 168 hrs. We actually need the Southeast ridge to put up some resistance so the overrunning doesn’t get suppressed.

The EPS doesn’t dig as much energy into the west so it’s less amped up with the overrunning in the East. It’s been a while since once of these overrunning set ups produced more than 4” from EWR to ISP. But we saw how back in December we finally got two clippers to work out for 4”+.

Maybe it’s possible we can finally get a decent overrunning event here. But it’s still way too early to know for sure exactly where the nest overrunning zone sets up. 

We really want to get to within the 120hr mark for the details to come into clearer focus. At least the potential is there. Whether the potential gets realized is another story. 

EPS diggs less energy west so overrunning is further south than GEFS

 

 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the key next week will be how deep a trough we can get out West. All winter long the models have been too aggressive in digging those troughs beyond 168 hrs. We actually need the Southeast ridge to put up some resistance so the overrunning doesn’t get suppressed.

The EPS doesn’t dig as much energy into the west so it’s less amped up with the overrunning in the East. It’s been a while since once of these overrunning set ups produced more than 4” from EWR to ISP. But we saw how back in December we finally got two clippers to work out for 4”+.

Maybe it’s possible we can finally get a decent overrunning event here. But it’s still way too early to know for sure exactly where the nest overrunning zone sets up. 

We really want to get to within the 120hr mark for the details to come into clearer focus. At least the potential is there. Whether the potential gets realized is another story. 

EPS diggs less energy west so overrunning is further south than GEFS

 

 

Phase 8 should help

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, eduggs said:

Rates (precipitation per hour) are actually modeled to be fairly high. Modeled FGEN is significant across several models. But total precipitation is relatively light due to the short duration. Several models including the GFS deliver over 0.3" liquid over 4-6 hours in or near our region. A few models even have greater than 0.5" liquid nearby. That's a fairly significant QPF signal for short-duration frontogenic banding. The forecast difficulty is that the modeled placement of this banded feature (CT, LHV, CNJ) is highly variable.

Forecast temperatures range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across our region with NYC roughly 31F to 35F depending on model during precipitation. Wetbulb temperatures are a little lower and modeled surface temperatures dropping during precipitation. Notably the HRRR is warmest, particularly after precipitation ends Saturday afternoon.

NYC will probably record a minimum temperature below 33F on Saturday.

If the models can continue to hold the frontogenic signature, I'll be more enthusiastic about it. I do think the Hudson Valley can wind up with 1"-2" amounts (colder readings), but the City and nearby suburbs still looks like a coating to an inch. I agree about the uncertainty regarding CT, lower Hudson Valley, and central NJ. The models are still jumping around with the QPF (the 0z GFS was probably an outlier with almost 0.40"). A realistic ceiling for the City is probably around 0.30", as fewer than 20% of EPS members have 0.30" or more. The ceiling might be somewhat higher in the areas you highlighted for banding.

Finally, we agree that NYC will have a minimum temperature below 33° (probably 30°-31° very early), but most of the precipitation will likely fall when the temperature is 33°-34°. I used the 33° minimum as a proxy because most or all of the precipitation will fall with above freezing temperatures. That still hasn't changed on the overnight guidance. 

[SACRUS]

24 / 8 off was down to 19.  Cold today mid 30s.  Weekend / Monday light snow / showers, flurries accumulations much discussed and much to be determined but looking like an overall Sat sticks on cars and concrete Coating to an inch or so.  Sunday more snow north and east.  Monday unknown.  Perhaps the bigger story is the building overall cold the bext 13 days.   Coldest of the next 5 is Tuesday/Wed with highs stuck in the 20s and some single figit lows.   Cold reloads in spikes of 1-2 day much below normal 1/24-1/25 and again between the 1/26-1/28 period.  Looks like moderation as we move into next month.  Storms TBD in the 1/21 - 1/27 period look to have ingredients key one - cold, now all we need is the storm track.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 58 (1995)  *odd day with a low record max below 60s
NYC: 58 (1995)
LGA: 59 (1953)
JFK: 58 (1995)

 

Lows:

EWR: 0 (2004)
NYC: 1 (2004)
LGA: 2 (2004)
JFK: 1 (2004)

 

Historical:

1831 - A great snowstorm raged from Georgia to Maine. Snowfall totals greater than 30 inches were reported from Pennsylvania across southern New England. (David Ludlum)

1921: Winds gusting up to 59 mph created a sand blizzard across southwest Minnesota and a snowstorm across the north. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1959: Bennet’s Bridge, NY received 51 inches of snow in just 16 hours from a lake effect snowstorm generated as cold air swept across the relatively warm waters of Lake Ontario. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
Cold night in the Shenandoah Valley as Dale Enterprise had a low temperature of 14 °F and Naked Creek in Rockingham County, Virginia recorded a minimum of -5 °F. (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia)

 

1964 - Fort Worth, TX, received 7.5 inches of snow, and Dallas reported a foot of snow. (David Ludlum)

1967: In Minnesota, a fast moving blizzard brought winds in excess of 75 mph. The snowfall was light to moderate with extensive blowing and drifting snow. Visibility was near zero for an extended period of time. Temperatures fell rapidly during the storm and by the morning of the 18th, many record lows were set. Many vehicles went into the ditch. Thousands of motorists and school children found shelter wherever they could as travel came to a standstill. In South Dakota, rain followed by a sudden drop in temperatures of nearly 30 degrees in two hours resulted in widespread freezing rain and significant icing on roads and trees. Strong winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 75 mph along with the ice halted most travel. The wind and icing also caused the toppling of a 270 foot radio tower near Aberdeen. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - A winter storm produced a total of 61 inches of snow at Rye CO, and wind gusts to 100 mph in Utah. The storm then spread heavy snow from the Texas panhandle to Indiana. Tulia TX received 16 inches of snow, and up to 14 inches was reported in western Oklahoma. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A small storm in the western U.S. produced a foot of snow and wind gusts to 70 mph in the Lake Tahoe Basin of Nevada. Showers and thunderstorms produced 2.28 inches of rain at Brownsville TX,their third highest total for any day in January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong chinook winds plagued much of the state of Wyoming. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cody, and wind gusts to 100 mph were reported in eastern and northwestern Wyoming. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Heavy snow fell across the Prince Williams Sound area and the Susitna Valley of southern Alaska. Valdez was buried under 64.9 inches of snow in less than two days, including a record 47.5 inches in 24 hours. Up to 44 inches of snow was reported in the Susitna Valley. The heavy snow blocked roads, closed schools, and sank half a dozen vessels in the harbor. (Storm Data)

1994: Minimum 1° the lowest temperature since January 1985 then -7 degrees January 16, saw an unusual assault of ice storms on the Commonwealth. It began in mid January with an arctic blast that sent temperatures below zero over northern and western Virginia for a couple mornings. Winchester recorded -18°F on the 16th, Harrisonburg reached -13°F, Woodstock was -17°F and western Loudoun County reached -15°F. Between then and mid February, about a dozen storms hit dropping snow, sleet, and freezing rain over all but the southeast.(Ref. Virginia Weather History)
Bitter cold gripped areas across the Great Lakes and Northeast: Alpena, MI tied its record low for January with -28 °F. Boston, MA suffered through its coldest day in 26 years with an average temp for the day of only 2°. Watertown, NY was the nation’s cold spot with a reading of -43°. Blackouts were reported over a large area of Virginia as the power drain overwhelmed utilities. A layer of ice up to two inches thick formed over sections of southeast Missouri, followed by 6 to 10 inches of snow. Numerous trees and power lines fell down due to ice accumulation. Structural damage to older barns and collapsed roofs were also reported due to the heavy weight of the snow and ice. A large number of car accidents were also reported on area highways. Some areas were without power in excess of 24 hours.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Mount Washington Observatory, New Hampshire: The observatory, boasting of having "the world's worst weather," records a morning temperatures of 43 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. The previous evening, the observatory reported a wind chill of 97 below zero Fahrenheit based on a combination of wind speed gusting at 92 mph and an air temperature of minus 39 Fahrenheit. (Ref. Wx.Doctor)

 

2008: An area of low pressure brought snow, sleet, and freezing rain across northern Georgia. Three to four inches was a typical amount reported from many of the northeast Georgia counties.

2009: As New England was under the grip of an arctic blast, an all-time low temperature of -50° Fahrenheit was recorded for Maine. It was recorded at 7:30 a.m. EST at a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauge on the Big Black River near Depot Mountain in northwestern Aroostook County. The previous record, -48° Fahrenheit, was set in Van Buren, Maine almost 84 years earlier, on January 19, 1925.

[SACRUS]

 

Departures mid way through Jan 1/15:

 

EWR: +4.3
ISP: + 4.2
NYC: +3.6
JFK: +3.1
TTN: +2.6
LGA: +2.3

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Phase 8 should help

If we get to phase 8. Being teased by the MJO is not fun.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 58 (1995)  *odd day with a low record max below 60s
NYC: 58 (1995)
LGA: 59 (1953)
JFK: 58 (1995)

 

Lows:

EWR: 0 (2004)
NYC: 1 (2004)
LGA: 2 (2004)
JFK: 1 (2004)

 

Historical:

1831 - A great snowstorm raged from Georgia to Maine. Snowfall totals greater than 30 inches were reported from Pennsylvania across southern New England. (David Ludlum)

1921: Winds gusting up to 59 mph created a sand blizzard across southwest Minnesota and a snowstorm across the north. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1959: Bennet’s Bridge, NY received 51 inches of snow in just 16 hours from a lake effect snowstorm generated as cold air swept across the relatively warm waters of Lake Ontario. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
Cold night in the Shenandoah Valley as Dale Enterprise had a low temperature of 14 °F and Naked Creek in Rockingham County, Virginia recorded a minimum of -5 °F. (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia)

 

1964 - Fort Worth, TX, received 7.5 inches of snow, and Dallas reported a foot of snow. (David Ludlum)

1967: In Minnesota, a fast moving blizzard brought winds in excess of 75 mph. The snowfall was light to moderate with extensive blowing and drifting snow. Visibility was near zero for an extended period of time. Temperatures fell rapidly during the storm and by the morning of the 18th, many record lows were set. Many vehicles went into the ditch. Thousands of motorists and school children found shelter wherever they could as travel came to a standstill. In South Dakota, rain followed by a sudden drop in temperatures of nearly 30 degrees in two hours resulted in widespread freezing rain and significant icing on roads and trees. Strong winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 75 mph along with the ice halted most travel. The wind and icing also caused the toppling of a 270 foot radio tower near Aberdeen. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - A winter storm produced a total of 61 inches of snow at Rye CO, and wind gusts to 100 mph in Utah. The storm then spread heavy snow from the Texas panhandle to Indiana. Tulia TX received 16 inches of snow, and up to 14 inches was reported in western Oklahoma. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A small storm in the western U.S. produced a foot of snow and wind gusts to 70 mph in the Lake Tahoe Basin of Nevada. Showers and thunderstorms produced 2.28 inches of rain at Brownsville TX,their third highest total for any day in January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong chinook winds plagued much of the state of Wyoming. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cody, and wind gusts to 100 mph were reported in eastern and northwestern Wyoming. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Heavy snow fell across the Prince Williams Sound area and the Susitna Valley of southern Alaska. Valdez was buried under 64.9 inches of snow in less than two days, including a record 47.5 inches in 24 hours. Up to 44 inches of snow was reported in the Susitna Valley. The heavy snow blocked roads, closed schools, and sank half a dozen vessels in the harbor. (Storm Data)

1994: Minimum 1° the lowest temperature since January 1985 then -7 degrees January 16, saw an unusual assault of ice storms on the Commonwealth. It began in mid January with an arctic blast that sent temperatures below zero over northern and western Virginia for a couple mornings. Winchester recorded -18°F on the 16th, Harrisonburg reached -13°F, Woodstock was -17°F and western Loudoun County reached -15°F. Between then and mid February, about a dozen storms hit dropping snow, sleet, and freezing rain over all but the southeast.(Ref. Virginia Weather History)
Bitter cold gripped areas across the Great Lakes and Northeast: Alpena, MI tied its record low for January with -28 °F. Boston, MA suffered through its coldest day in 26 years with an average temp for the day of only 2°. Watertown, NY was the nation’s cold spot with a reading of -43°. Blackouts were reported over a large area of Virginia as the power drain overwhelmed utilities. A layer of ice up to two inches thick formed over sections of southeast Missouri, followed by 6 to 10 inches of snow. Numerous trees and power lines fell down due to ice accumulation. Structural damage to older barns and collapsed roofs were also reported due to the heavy weight of the snow and ice. A large number of car accidents were also reported on area highways. Some areas were without power in excess of 24 hours.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Mount Washington Observatory, New Hampshire: The observatory, boasting of having "the world's worst weather," records a morning temperatures of 43 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. The previous evening, the observatory reported a wind chill of 97 below zero Fahrenheit based on a combination of wind speed gusting at 92 mph and an air temperature of minus 39 Fahrenheit. (Ref. Wx.Doctor)

 

2008: An area of low pressure brought snow, sleet, and freezing rain across northern Georgia. Three to four inches was a typical amount reported from many of the northeast Georgia counties.

2009: As New England was under the grip of an arctic blast, an all-time low temperature of -50° Fahrenheit was recorded for Maine. It was recorded at 7:30 a.m. EST at a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauge on the Big Black River near Depot Mountain in northwestern Aroostook County. The previous record, -48° Fahrenheit, was set in Van Buren, Maine almost 84 years earlier, on January 19, 1925.

Gotta love the 1994 event summary.  Frigid air over eastern Canada just continued to push and funnel straight south over snow covered ground.  Met up with moisture from the south and snow and ice events were plentiful. Thing I remember most is the frozen solid ruts of snow and ice on the roads for days at a time.  With snow, sleet and freezing rain the road crews could not properly clear the roads and everything just froze solid.  Was like driving on an obstacle course.  

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Gotta love the 1994 event summary.  Frigid air over eastern Canada just continued to push and funnel straight south over snow covered ground.  Met up with moisture from the south and snow and ice events were plentiful. Thing I remember most is the frozen solid ruts of snow and ice on the roads for days at a time.  With snow, sleet and freezing rain the road crews could not properly clear the roads and everything just froze solid.  Was like driving on an obstacle course.  

That was a great winter and during a time that chemcial ice treatments were just being developed and adopted. As a result most municipalites just used straight rock salt which is ineffective in such cold weather. So yeah, if you drove a car that winter you can't forget the ice caked on the roads. Nowadays the rock salt gets chemically treated so its effective at lower temps, plus we don't see cold like that.

[donsutherland1]

The 12z guidance has moved into strong agreement concerning the QPF for tomorrow's light precipitation event with only the UKMET and ECMWF left to initialize. The NAM is a notable dry outlier for New York City (0.01"). The RRFS A, the NAM's successor model, has 0.20" QPF. With the NAM doing NAM things in the face of strong agreement among the other guidance, the idea that New York City will see little or no precipitation is discounted.

Snowfall amounts in New York City will still be limited:

• Readings will likely be above freezing for most or all of the event. Readings will generally range from 33°-34° during the event.
• QPF will be on the light side (probably 0.15"-0.25"). The 15z NBM has 0.20". Most of the 12z guidance is just under 0.20".
• Precipitation rates in the City will likely be less than 0.05" per hour except for a brief period.

Measurable snow is likely in Central Park. There's strong agreement among the individual EPS members for this outcome. All of the 12z guidance, except for the NAM, shows measurable snow. 

All said, snow showers or a period of snow remains likely tomorrow. A coating to an inch of snow is likely in and around New York City. The distant northern and western suburbs could see 1"-2" of snow due to slightly higher QPF, precipitation rates, and slightly colder temperatures. 

Sunday still bears some watching, as uncertainty is somewhat greater than it is for tomorrow. The Canadian suite (GGEM-RGEM) continue to bring a light measurable snowfall to New York City and its adjacent suburbs. The earlier runs of the ECMWF keep the snows farther east. As the GGEM is consistently the #2 rated model, it's solution is plausible. There was very little support for accumulating snowfall in New York City among the 1/16 0z EPS members. Therefore, at least for now, a miss to the east still remains more likely than not. Under that baseline scenario, there would be some accumulating snow in eastern Long Island into southeastern New England. Snow flurries and/or snow showers would be possible farther west, including in the New York City area.

[MANDA]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12z guidance has moved into strong agreement concerning the QPF for tomorrow's light precipitation event with only the UKMET and ECMWF left to initialize. The NAM is a notable dry outlier for New York City (0.01"). The RRFS A, the NAM's successor model, has 0.20" QPF. With the NAM doing NAM things in the face of strong agreement among the other guidance, the idea that New York City will see little or no precipitation is discounted.

Snowfall amounts in New York City will still be limited:

• Readings will likely be above freezing for most or all of the event. Readings will generally range from 33°-34° during the event.
• QPF will be on the light side (probably 0.15"-0.25"). The 15z NBM has 0.20". Most of the 12z guidance is just under 0.20".
• Precipitation rates in the City will likely be less than 0.05" per hour except for a brief period.

Measurable snow is likely in Central Park. There's strong agreement among the individual EPS members for this outcome. All of the 12z guidance, except for the NAM, shows measurable snow. 

All said, snow showers or a period of snow remains likely tomorrow. A coating to an inch of snow is likely in and around New York City. The distant northern and western suburbs could see 1"-2" of snow due to slightly higher QPF, precipitation rates, and slightly colder temperatures. 

Sunday still bears some watching, as uncertainty is somewhat greater than it is for tomorrow. The Canadian suite (GGEM-RGEM) continue to bring a light measurable snowfall to New York City and its adjacent suburbs. The earlier runs of the ECMWF keep the snows farther east. As the GGEM is consistently the #2 rated model, it's solution is plausible. There was very little support for accumulating snowfall in New York City among the 1/16 0z EPS members. Therefore, at least for now, a miss to the east still remains more likely than not. Under that baseline scenario, there would be some accumulating snow in eastern Long Island into southeastern New England. Snow flurries and/or snow showers would be possible farther west, including in the New York City area.

Excellent summation of the situation.  Would not expect much deviation from what you have outlined.

For my area I am expecting .5" to 1.5" tops for tomorrow and nothing on Sunday.

[eduggs]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the models can continue to hold the frontogenic signature, I'll be more enthusiastic about it. I do think the Hudson Valley can wind up with 1"-2" amounts (colder readings), but the City and nearby suburbs still looks like a coating to an inch. I agree about the uncertainty regarding CT, lower Hudson Valley, and central NJ. The models are still jumping around with the QPF (the 0z GFS was probably an outlier with almost 0.40"). A realistic ceiling for the City is probably around 0.30", as fewer than 20% of EPS members have 0.30" or more. The ceiling might be somewhat higher in the areas you highlighted for banding.

Finally, we agree that NYC will have a minimum temperature below 33° (probably 30°-31° very early), but most of the precipitation will likely fall when the temperature is 33°-34°. I used the 33° minimum as a proxy because most or all of the precipitation will fall with above freezing temperatures. That still hasn't changed on the overnight guidance. 

I agree with most of this. And I don't expect much if any accumulation in the asphalted area of NYC. But I don't think ensembles have the resolution to capture this partly mesoscale feature. The high QPF - short duration signature is prevalent across multiple models, so I'm inclined to think it's real. The question is where does it set up. Right now it looks north or west of NYC. But if the banding materializes and it impacts NYC, with a little dynamic cooling, I think there could be accumulations even in parts of the City. I really enjoy these low expectation localized events because they make for fun nowcasting.