January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Jersey_Snowhole]

gfs very active next week / weekend

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

gfs very active next week / weekend

Yep all the models are

[MJO812]

Gefs is insane

[SnoSki14]

Nice test of the AI models, we'll see if they have a clue

[bluewave]

I think the key next week will be how deep a trough we can get out West. All winter long the models have been too aggressive in digging those troughs beyond 168 hrs. We actually need the Southeast ridge to put up some resistance so the overrunning doesn’t get suppressed.

The EPS doesn’t dig as much energy into the west so it’s less amped up with the overrunning in the East. It’s been a while since once of these overrunning set ups produced more than 4” from EWR to ISP. But we saw how back in December we finally got two clippers to work out for 4”+.

Maybe it’s possible we can finally get a decent overrunning event here. But it’s still way too early to know for sure exactly where the nest overrunning zone sets up. 

We really want to get to within the 120hr mark for the details to come into clearer focus. At least the potential is there. Whether the potential gets realized is another story. 

EPS diggs less energy west so overrunning is further south than GEFS

 

 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the key next week will be how deep a trough we can get out West. All winter long the models have been too aggressive in digging those troughs beyond 168 hrs. We actually need the Southeast ridge to put up some resistance so the overrunning doesn’t get suppressed.

The EPS doesn’t dig as much energy into the west so it’s less amped up with the overrunning in the East. It’s been a while since once of these overrunning set ups produced more than 4” from EWR to ISP. But we saw how back in December we finally got two clippers to work out for 4”+.

Maybe it’s possible we can finally get a decent overrunning event here. But it’s still way too early to know for sure exactly where the nest overrunning zone sets up. 

We really want to get to within the 120hr mark for the details to come into clearer focus. At least the potential is there. Whether the potential gets realized is another story. 

EPS diggs less energy west so overrunning is further south than GEFS

 

 

Phase 8 should help