January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Krs4Lfe]

Cold front moving through later day. That sets up the colder half of the month after 9 days with above average temperatures. I wonder what the anomalies were like for NYC during this period. Had to have been around average of +10 for the past 9 days. Felt real toasty after a colder November through New Years regime 

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I honestly have lost all confidence in the GFS. Go with the EURO and CMC.

Yeah not even worth looking at the GFS other than entertainment purposes

[SACRUS]

 

Breezy now with gusts to 25 here more towards NYC

[winterwx21]

48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I honestly have lost all confidence in the GFS. Go with the EURO and CMC.

It's tough to take any threat seriously if the Euro isn't onboard. Sunday always seemed like a longshot. 

[MJO812]

Euro is snowy and active in the mid to long range.

[SI Mailman]

Yeah not even worth looking at the GFS other than entertainment purposes

So I’m not getting the 3 feet of snow it was promising for late next week?

[MJO812]

Jeez euro is brutally cold in the long range

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Jeez euro is brutally cold in the long range

That would be historic. Euro is probably overdoing it since it's very long range, but the cold for the week of the 26th is probably going to be more impressive than what we're going to see next week. And Tuesday the 20th it might struggle to get above 20. Very cold times ahead the next couple weeks. We're having a real winter this year. Hopefully we'll start seeing snowstorms again in late January. The snowy December gives us a good chance to have an above average snowfall season. 

[psv88]

Low of 40, high of 45. 

Helluva way to run a cool down!

[Dan76]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Phase 6 isnt working. Hopefully things pick up when it goes into 7 and 8.

We need DefCon 8

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Low of 40, high of 45. 

Helluva way to run a cool down!

hasn't dropped yet-was supposed to fall all day but I'm holding at 45

[winterwx21]

The temp is falling during the afternoon here as expected. Down to 34 now. Wind feels very cold. 

[SACRUS]

 

Down to 34 here - breezy

[WeatherGeek2025]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Jeez euro is brutally cold in the long range

does it show below 0 for central park?

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

does it show below 0 for central park?

-20

[[email protected]]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

-20

No chance that the park gets under 10 degrees!

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

No chance that the park gets under 10 degrees!

Good chance of single digits

[uofmiami]

57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

hasn't dropped yet-was supposed to fall all day but I'm holding at 45

Luck you, dropped from 44 this morning to 37 this afternoon.

[MANDA]

50 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The temp is falling during the afternoon here as expected. Down to 34 now. Wind feels very cold. 

Never got above 41 here today and is currently 30.  The torch, thaw, respite from the cold December or whatever you want to call it is over.

If the EURO is on the right track and I suspect it is (although over doing the cold) it will take the positive temperature departures for the first half of the month to the woodshed.

Only way we get even close to the 12Z depiction of the coming cold  is if we can get a decent snow cover down and that is questionable at this time.  I'd like to see forum wide depth of at least 6" to maximize the coming cold.

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Luck you, dropped from 44 this morning to 37 this afternoon.

39 here. We can asterisk your temps now that they are confirmed as 1 degree too low...

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

39 here. We can asterisk your temps now that they are confirmed as 1 degree too low...

43.4 in Muttontown & 43.8 in Syosset, about 3.5 miles apart.

[donsutherland1]

A sustained colder-than-normal period is commencing. The temperature will tumble into the 20s overnight and then rise only to the middle 30s tomorrow. With the exception of Saturday, highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on Sunday and Monday. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least the most of next week. 

Flurries and perhaps a heavier snow shower are possible on Saturday and Sunday as a renewed flow of cold air moves across the region. Any accumulations should be light (mainly a coating to an inch). A coastal storm could begin to develop off the Southeast coast and then track south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. On such a track, it could bring a period of light snow to eastern Long Island into southeastern New England on Sunday into Sunday night. 

After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for both cold and snowfall. The probability of a PNA+ regime has increased in recent days. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +11.08 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.231 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.1° (-0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.