January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The GFS loves to dig and amplify stuff thouhh. Look what it did January 2025 and what it did for 1/16. It’s a known bias. Wouldn’t put any credence into it 

Dude just stop posting 

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, eduggs said:

The GFS still isn't great for Sunday. A little 12z Canadian like with a mid-level low in the Lakes and a pos tilted trof structure

Yeah even with GFS digging bias, it’s still positive throuhh because of the fast flow. I think if we were to get anything, you’d need rapid changes. It’s still 4 days away but still. Thungs are trending closer but it’s far from good enough 

[eduggs]

I think the 0z GFS is now one decent step away from a plowable snowfall. Last run it was 2 steps away. It's at least starting to look plausible when you loop 500mb

[MJO812]

Very close

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very close

This has legs I think. Really nice ridge out west. Just hope the flow isn't too fast 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This has legs I think. Really nice ridge out west. Just hope the flow isn't too fast 

Thats the problem of late

[eduggs]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This has legs I think. Really nice ridge out west. Just hope the flow isn't too fast 

I'm not really sure what fast flow means here in context. In the past I think it referred to an anomalously strong jet stream across the Pacific that penetrated the North American continent with mild air. "Fast flow" seems to have become a scapegoat when anything fails regardless of cause. In this case the flow is straight out of central Canada and the flow looks seasonably fast, i.e., not too fast. The speed of a SLP is partly dependent on steering currents but also on the structure and degree of maturity of a trof. For example, a SLP may slow and stall near a cutoff upper level low even if the associated jet has winds speeds over 80 knots.

[eduggs]

The UK is similar to the GFS, but better. Accumulating snow to the coastal plain just NW of NYC. Nice h5 and surface almost as good as GFS-AI. Great 0z.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The UK is similar to the GFS, but better. Accumulating snow to the coastal plain just NW of NYC. Nice h5 and surface almost as good as GFS-AI. Great 0z.

what's the ceiling for this type of event?

[eduggs]

The GEFS improved again for Sunday (trof and individual members) even if QPF doesn't fully reflect the improvement.

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what's the ceiling for this type of event?

I don't really believe in ceilings, especially beyond 24 or 48 hours or so. I remember Feb. 11, 2006 looked like a miss or fringe event 4 days out. 2 days out it looked like a plowable snowfall with a fantasy ceiling of maybe 8". Then the storm dropped 27" at NYC. If the synoptic scale features break right and the small-scale stuff aligns perfectly, sometimes there is no ceiling.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GEFS improved again for Sunday (trof and individual members) even if QPF doesn't fully reflect the improvement.

Ukie also. Accumulating snow. 

[BoulderWX]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The emotions on here if we get minimal snowfall will be insane. Mid-late February 2025 looked great from a distance too. Until we got 2 mix storms and a major snowstorm that was suppressed south. Wouldn’t be surprised if that happens this time too. We lost the 16th, so now the 18th is light precip at best 

Goes both ways. The emotions of people clawing at any hope for a storm is equally as annoying as those who dismiss any chance of them. Very few posters on here are capable of being even keel. 

[eduggs]

ECM-AI is west of 18z with the SLP and sharper with the trof. It's a scraper now. Very consistent trends across guidance.

That's a solid improvement. 18z was well offshore and barely had a discernible coastal SLP. 0z forms a low and tracks it east of the benchmark.

[Rjay]

[eduggs]

The Jan 25 event is still in the GEFS mean. In fact it's stronger this run than last. It's a major QPF signal for 11 days out and has been for several runs. Obviously a tiny model change at initialization will propagate across the entire globe over 11 days to result in huge differences at the regional/synoptic scale. 

[EasternLI]

 

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, Rjay said:

Be careful. MJO812 may use this as evidence to arrest you for theft of digital snow. That's a grave crime during a period of years with below and much below normal snowfall.

 

[SACRUS]

35 / 32 cloudy with some showers as the front comes through.  Last warm day for the next 7 - 10 days with highs upper 40s / low 50s.  Colder period starting tomorrow and persisting into the week of the 26th.  Beyond there overall below normal.  Still chance to see if storm threats materialize in the period as cold looks in place for ingredient number one now all we need is the energy / track and storm to come together in the 1/24 - 1/30 period. 
 

1/14 :   Front / warm day
1/15 - 1/26 : Colder below to much below normal.  Coldest period focused on 1/19-1/22
1/27 - Beyond : Overall below normal

 

 

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

 

Euro also showing this trend to a lesser extent. We’ll see. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1932)
NYC: 70 (1932)
LGA: 64 (1995)
JFK: 60 (1950)


Lows:

EWR: 7 (1957)
NYC: -5 (1914)
LGA: 7 (1988)
JFK: 5 (1988)

Historical:

1831: The greatest snowstorm recorded in American history until this time occurred from Georgia to the northeast and west to the Ohio Valley. Gettysburg, PA reported 30 inches and Pittsburgh, PA recorded 22 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1863 - The greatest snowstorm of record for Cincinnati OH commenced, and a day later twenty inches of snow covered the ground. That total has remained far above the modern day record for Cincinnati of eleven inches of snow in one storm. (David Ludlum)

1882 - Southern California's greatest snow occurred on this date. Fifteen inches blanketed San Bernardino, and even San Diego reported a trace of snow. (David Ludlum)

1888: The temperature in Eureka, CA fell to 20F as a cold spell affected the Golden State. The temperature at San Francisco dropped to 29F. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1912: This was the last month that double digit sub-zero temperatures were recorded in Washington, DC.
The minimum temperature for the date is -13°F. in Washington, DC and at College Park, Md. The temperature fell to an incredible low reading of 26 degrees below zero.       The Great Cold Wave of January 1912 a record cold wave settled across the South to the Mid-Atlantic region. Some of the extremely cold temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic included: Bayard, WV: -30°, Hagerstown, MD: -27°, College Park, MD: -26°, Lincoln, VA: -25°, Dale Enterprises near Harrisonburg, VA: -25°, Frederick, MD: -21°, Culpeper, VA: -20°, Laurel, MD: -19°, Lost City, WV: -14°, Washington, DC: -13°, Fredericksburg, VA: -11°, Baltimore, MD: -2°. Other locations that reported record low temperatures for the date included: Williamsport, PA: -17°, Harrisburg, PA: -14°, Hartford, CT: -12°, Elkins, WV: -12°, Huntington, WV: -12°, Avoca, PA: -10°, Roanoke, VA: -8°, Lynchburg, VA: -7°, Providence, RI: -6°, Dayton, OH: -4°, Tulsa, OK: -3°, Baltimore, MD: -2°, Charleston, WV: -2°, Richmond, VA: -1°, New York (Central Park), NY: 2°, Philadelphia, PA: 2°, Greensboro, NC: 3°, Raleigh, NC: 6°, Charlotte, NC: 7°, Columbia, SC: 10°, Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 10°, Athens, GA: 15°, Waco, TX: 16° and Austin, TX: 18 °F.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1916: Locations from the northern Plains to the deep south reported record low temperatures for the date including: Watertown, SD: -38°, Aberdeen, SD: -36°, Grand Forks, ND: -35°, Mobridge, SD: -35°, Timber Lake, SD: -31°, Sioux Falls, SD: -31°, Wheaton, SD: -28°, Waterloo, IA: -26°, Kennebec, SD: -24 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1932: The home of a 13 member family in Lexington, TN was destroyed by a tornado. 10 fatalities resulted. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 76°F.
(Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1952: Glaze, Sleet and Ice storm across Minnesota from St Cloud south into Iowa. 1,100 Northwestern Bell telephone wires down. The Buffalo Ridge in the Pipestone area the hardest hit with ¾ inches of solid ice on Northern State Power wires with icicles to 3 inches. Northwestern Bell reported ice to 1 ½ inches of ice on their wires in the same area. Thunder and a shower of ice pellets accompanied the storm in New Ulm and Mankato. Minneapolis General Hospital treated 81 people, victims of falls on icy streets. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1972: In Loma, Montana, the temperature soared from 54 degrees below zero to 49 degrees above zero on January 14-15, 1972. The 103-degree change is the greatest ever recorded in the world for a 24 hour period.

1882: Snow fell in southern California, with the highest amount of 15 inches at San Bernardino. Three feet of snow fell in Campo over four days and produced 8-foot drifts in spots. Two to five inches fell in outlying San Diego, including four inches along Poway Grade, 3 inches at El Cajon, and one inch in Poway. Five inches fell in Riverside. Light snow fell in Del Mar. Snowflakes fell but did not stick at San Diego Lindbergh Field. Birds and livestock were killed, telegraph lines were knocked down, and citrus crops were damaged.

1974: Severe flooding in Idaho was the result of unseasonably warm temperatures, Chinook winds and heavy rains. The flooding is regarded to be the worst weather disaster in the history of the state. Damage totaled $50 million. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1979 - Chicago, IL, was in the midst of their second heaviest snow of record as, in thirty hours, the city was buried under 20.7 inches of snow. The twenty-nine inch snow cover following the storm was an all-time record for Chicago. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. By evening blustery northwest winds and temperatures near zero at Grand Forks ND were producing wind chill readings of 50 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1988 - A powerful Pacific storm produced rain and high winds in the western U.S. In Nevada, a wind gust to 90 mph at Reno was an all-time record for that location, and wind gusts reached 106 mph southwest of Reno. A wind gust to 94 mph was recorded at nearby Windy Hill. Rainfall totals in Oregon ranged up to six inches at Wilson River. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A winter storm spread snow and sleet and freezing rain from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the northeastern U.S. Freezing rain in West Virginia caused fifteen traffic accidents in just a few minutes west of Charleston. Tennessee was deluged with up to 7.5 inches of rain. Two inches of rain near Clarksville TN left water in the streets as high as car doors.

1990 - A winter storm in the southwestern U.S. blanketed the mountains of southwest Utah with 18 to 24 inches of snow, while sunshine and strong southerly winds helped temperatures warm into the 60s in the Central Plains Region. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE with a reading of 63 degrees. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: A low pressure area deepened 18 millibars (0.71 inches of mercury) in only 12 hours and bottomed out at 969 millibars (28.62 inches of mercury) as it tracked from the Tennessee Valley to northern New York state. It produced quite a range of nasty weather. Heavy snow with blizzard conditions prevailed in Ohio and eastern Michigan. Detroit, MI reported thunder and lightning with heavy snow and received a total of 11 inches, their biggest single storm snowfall in nearly 10 years. An unusual severe weather outbreak for the time of the year so far north occurred in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southeastern New York. Tornadoes touched down at Moosic and Lumberville, PA. Dime size hail fell at Orange, NJ and thunderstorm winds gusted to 87 mph at Gettysburg, PA. Small hail fell at Weather Service Office in Newark, NJ, the first time hail had ever fallen at this location in January. Emmitsburg, MD reported a wind gust of 88 mph. Rare January thunderstorm outbreak in DC area 40-50mph.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

 

2009: In Washington State, freezing fog and freezing drizzle enveloped much of the Inland Northwest during 13-23 January 2009. The area most affected by this was the high plateau region along Highway 2 between Wenatchee and Spokane. 

 

2016: Hurricane Alex became the first January hurricane in the Atlantic since Hurricane Alice in 1955.

 

[cleetussnow]

8 hours ago, Rjay said:

Model is broken

[SACRUS]

 

A bit more deeper on the Jan 13-14 1992 noreaster 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1992_nor'easter

[SnoSki14]

Snow chances will start to increase a lot in a week or so. MJO going to 8 again. Just not sure if it'll be more of what we saw in December or something more noteworthy.

Hopefully the flow can slow down enough to allow shortwaves to dig and amplify. 

[Nibor]

35 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Model is broken

The GFS? That’s a feature!

[NEG NAO]

[Krs4Lfe]

Models really lost the storm signal around the 24th big time. They were honking on it yesterday but now…. Nothing. I’m sure something will reappear at some point because the pattern is conducive. But wow what a change in a 6 hour model run period !

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Models really lost the storm signal around the 24th big time. They were honking on it yesterday but now…. Nothing. I’m sure something will reappear at some point because the pattern is conducive. But wow what a change in a 6 hour model run period !

Do you understand why the change happened and why it has happened in the past many times ?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Model is broken

Why? Just because in some areas it went from 50 inches to 3 inches in a six hour period? It's trying to give you every option possible. Maybe the 12 Z will show a heat wave today just to open up all possibilities. 

[CentralNJSnowman]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

That's pretty wild.  Looks like a total of only 6 out of 34 happened earlier than January 15.