January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The GFS loves to dig and amplify stuff thouhh. Look what it did January 2025 and what it did for 1/16. It’s a known bias. Wouldn’t put any credence into it 

Dude just stop posting 

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, eduggs said:

The GFS still isn't great for Sunday. A little 12z Canadian like with a mid-level low in the Lakes and a pos tilted trof structure

Yeah even with GFS digging bias, it’s still positive throuhh because of the fast flow. I think if we were to get anything, you’d need rapid changes. It’s still 4 days away but still. Thungs are trending closer but it’s far from good enough 

[eduggs]

I think the 0z GFS is now one decent step away from a plowable snowfall. Last run it was 2 steps away. It's at least starting to look plausible when you loop 500mb

[MJO812]

Very close

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very close

This has legs I think. Really nice ridge out west. Just hope the flow isn't too fast 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This has legs I think. Really nice ridge out west. Just hope the flow isn't too fast 

Thats the problem of late

[eduggs]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This has legs I think. Really nice ridge out west. Just hope the flow isn't too fast 

I'm not really sure what fast flow means here in context. In the past I think it referred to an anomalously strong jet stream across the Pacific that penetrated the North American continent with mild air. "Fast flow" seems to have become a scapegoat when anything fails regardless of cause. In this case the flow is straight out of central Canada and the flow looks seasonably fast, i.e., not too fast. The speed of a SLP is partly dependent on steering currents but also on the structure and degree of maturity of a trof. For example, a SLP may slow and stall near a cutoff upper level low even if the associated jet has winds speeds over 80 knots.

[eduggs]

The UK is similar to the GFS, but better. Accumulating snow to the coastal plain just NW of NYC. Nice h5 and surface almost as good as GFS-AI. Great 0z.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The UK is similar to the GFS, but better. Accumulating snow to the coastal plain just NW of NYC. Nice h5 and surface almost as good as GFS-AI. Great 0z.

what's the ceiling for this type of event?

[eduggs]

The GEFS improved again for Sunday (trof and individual members) even if QPF doesn't fully reflect the improvement.

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

what's the ceiling for this type of event?

I don't really believe in ceilings, especially beyond 24 or 48 hours or so. I remember Feb. 11, 2006 looked like a miss or fringe event 4 days out. 2 days out it looked like a plowable snowfall with a fantasy ceiling of maybe 8". Then the storm dropped 27" at NYC. If the synoptic scale features break right and the small-scale stuff aligns perfectly, sometimes there is no ceiling.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GEFS improved again for Sunday (trof and individual members) even if QPF doesn't fully reflect the improvement.

Ukie also. Accumulating snow. 

[BoulderWX]

2 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The emotions on here if we get minimal snowfall will be insane. Mid-late February 2025 looked great from a distance too. Until we got 2 mix storms and a major snowstorm that was suppressed south. Wouldn’t be surprised if that happens this time too. We lost the 16th, so now the 18th is light precip at best 

Goes both ways. The emotions of people clawing at any hope for a storm is equally as annoying as those who dismiss any chance of them. Very few posters on here are capable of being even keel. 

[eduggs]

ECM-AI is west of 18z with the SLP and sharper with the trof. It's a scraper now. Very consistent trends across guidance.

That's a solid improvement. 18z was well offshore and barely had a discernible coastal SLP. 0z forms a low and tracks it east of the benchmark.

[Rjay]

[eduggs]

The Jan 25 event is still in the GEFS mean. In fact it's stronger this run than last. It's a major QPF signal for 11 days out and has been for several runs. Obviously a tiny model change at initialization will propagate across the entire globe over 11 days to result in huge differences at the regional/synoptic scale.