January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That definitely does not look like a Miller A KU setup to me. Maybe @forkyfork can chime in? 

Maybe you can see for yourself 

[WeatherGeek2025]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our area generally doesn’t get big East Coast snowstorms when there is a strong kicker coming through the Great Lakes and a weak cold high pressure in between.

 

unless the low in the east coast merges with the kicker! and it actually slows the storm down completely but it has to be perfect timing. 

[MANDA]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our area generally doesn’t get big East Coast snowstorms when there is a strong kicker coming through the Great Lakes and a weak cold high pressure in between.

I'd also like to see the ridge axis further east by about 10 degrees and I'd also like to see a 50/50 low to lock in cold air.  Map as shown has fast flow off and along the east coast.  Would take something to make that dog bark.  Nice map to look at but to me it is more of a meow meow.  

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

unless the low in the east coast merges with the kicker! and it actually slows the storm down completely but it has to be perfect timing. 

Very difficult to pull off a phase like that with such a dominant Northern Stream pattern and lack of cold high pressure in place.

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

12z GFS is closest to an east coast snowstorm. It has a thin, high amplitude trof that rapidly takes on a negative tilt. This is at the extreme end of its multi-day ensemble spread. And it still misses well east. Then look at the CMC, ICON, and UK. All not close. GFS-AI and ECM are less dreadful but not great. Any reasonable look at this would have to conclude that an east coast snowstorm next week is a longshot at this juncture. I really really hope it changes for the better. But if we want to be rational, we should acknowledge the situation for what it is.

You said it best earlier.  Ensemble support is not there.  

[IrishRob17]

38 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That looks like a MA blockbuster with snow to mix and dry slot NYC to BOS.  I guess I'm still a little disappointed about 1993 

And that makes sense since that looks like a DT graphic and he lives in VA last I knew. Assuming it is some other forecasters graphic it should be in the banter thread.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 1960s had the best Long Island and surrounding area radiational cooling following the big snowstorms of that era. 

 for January 21, 1961 through January 31, 1961
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	-25
NY	CARMEL	COOP	-24
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-21
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	-21
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-20
CT	WATERBURY RADIO WBRY	COOP	-19
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-18
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	-18
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	-17
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	-16
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-16
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	-16
NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	-15
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	-14
CT	GROTON	COOP	-14
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-13
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	-12
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	-12
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-11
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	-10
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-10
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	-10
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	-10
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	-10
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-7
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	-7
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-7
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	-7
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	-2
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	-2
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	-2
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	-2
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-1
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	-1
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	-1

 

Monthly Snowfall Data for January 1961 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	WARWICK	COOP	45.2
NY	GARDNERVILLE	COOP	44.0
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	37.6
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	37.2
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	35.9
CT	WOLCOTT RESERVOIR	COOP	33.5
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	32.7
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	32.5
NJ	MAHWAH	COOP	32.0
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	31.1
NJ	MIDLAND PARK	COOP	31.0
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	31.0
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	30.9
NY	CARMEL	COOP	30.0
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	29.0
NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	28.0
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	27.7
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	27.5
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	27.5
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	27.4
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	27.0
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	26.2
CT	COCKAPONSET RANGER STA	COOP	25.0
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	24.0
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	22.8
CT	WATERBURY RADIO WBRY	COOP	22.5
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	22.2
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	21.6
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	21.5
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	21.5
NJ	CEDAR GROVE	COOP	21.0
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	20.6
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	20.5
NJ	IRVINGTON	COOP	20.5
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	20.5
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	20.2
NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	20.0
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	20.0
CT	DANBURY	COOP	20.0
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	20.0
CT	GROTON	COOP	20.0

Data for February 7, 1967 through February 14, 1967
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	-20
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	-16
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	-16
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	-15
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	-15
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	-14
NY	CARMEL	COOP	-12
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	-12
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	-11
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-10
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	-10
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-10
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-10
CT	GROTON	COOP	-9
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-9
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-9
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	-8
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	-7
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-6
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	-6
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	-5
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	-5
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	-4
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	-4
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-4
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	-4
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	-3
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-2
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-2
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-2
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	-1

 

Monthly Snowfall Data for February 1967 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	WOLCOTT RESERVOIR	COOP	34.2
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	33.2
CT	EASTON RESERVOIR	COOP	32.5
CT	COCKAPONSET RANGER STA	COOP	32.3
NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	32.1
NY	WARWICK	COOP	32.1
CT	DANBURY	COOP	31.6
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	30.5
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	30.5
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	29.6
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	29.5
CT	TRAP FALLS RESERVOIR	COOP	29.5
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	29.1
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	28.6
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	28.5
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	28.1
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	28.0
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	27.8
NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	27.7
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	27.6
NJ	MIDLAND PARK	COOP	27.5
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	27.3
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	27.0
NY	CARMEL	COOP	27.0
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	26.8
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	26.6
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	26.3
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	26.0
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	25.5
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	25.4
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	25.3
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	25.3
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	25.3
NY	GARDNERVILLE	COOP	25.0
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	24.6
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	24.3
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	24.3
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	24.0
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	24.0
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	23.8
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	23.7
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	23.6
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	20.5
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	20.0

 

Great data as always. 
 

I know you were just using Upton area temperatures but that was also the period Poughkeepsie recorded their all time low of -30. 

[Wannabehippie]

53 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The next model doesn't really show this classic Miller A. Nor does the one after that. Typical for systems a week out IMHO.

[WeatherGeek2025]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very difficult to pull off a phase like that with such a dominant Northern Stream pattern and lack of cold high pressure in place.

it's happened before so it's not impossible!

 

improbable but not impossible 

[Tatamy]

41 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

unless the low in the east coast merges with the kicker! and it actually slows the storm down completely but it has to be perfect timing. 

I took the photo below in April 2024.  This from a park in upstate NY called Mexico Point State Park.  It’s on the shore of Lake Ontario right in the heart of the snow belt country.  It looks and feels like the shore of LI Sound.  A town called Pulaski just a few miles away recorded 4 feet of snow in two days with a lake effect event in the past two weeks.  If you want to see KU style snow events each year this is where you need to be.

[donsutherland1]

An orderly pattern progression remains underway. In the extended range, that progression should culminate in a return to colder weather with persistently below normal temperatures. 

A storm heading through the Great Lakes will bring rain tomorrow into early Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely across much of the region. 

Through the middle of next week, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place.

After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s.

No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +4.62 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.466 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.4° (-0.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

[cleetussnow]

Miller As are touch and go.  Some of the biggest storms we ever got are Miller As but so are some of our biggest busts.  And not the good kind of busts.

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

I took the photo below in April 2024.  This from a park in upstate NY called Mexico Point State Park.  It’s on the shore of Lake Ontario right in the heart of the snow belt country.  It looks and feels like the shore of LI Sound.  A town called Pulaski just a few miles away recorded 4 feet of snow in two days with a lake effect event in the past two weeks.  If you want to see KU style snow events each year this is where you need to be.

Absolutely and I think its either Fulton or Mexico that has a state record 7 foot storm total from LE.  Back in the 90s I think.

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS rolling...

[gravitylover]

There were places just north and east of the big zone this year that got well over 100" in the big event last year. The dick waving banter in the local Fb groups in that area is funny.

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS 18z hits us with a some slop from the Thursdays wave. Gives New England and north a decent event

[Stormlover74]

Gfs still looks like snow on the 18th

[Monty]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's happened before so it's not impossible!

 

improbable but not impossible 

Why did you make this post? Do you think Bluewave needs you to teach him this? Does the general American Wx community benefit from optimism divorced from reality, via a post that has no substance? 

 

Welcome to the boards, I'll guess that you're on the younger end. Noone wants to stifle your enthusiasm but as others have said please read what you've written before you post and ask if it is a valuable contribution that would be interesting to others. 

[NEG NAO]

whats this called ?

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, Monty said:

Why did you make this post? Do you think Bluewave needs you to teach him this? Does the general American Wx community benefit from optimism divorced from reality, via a post that has no substance? 

 

Welcome to the boards, I'll guess that you're on the younger end. Noone wants to stifle your enthusiasm but as others have said please read what you've written before you post and ask if it is a valuable contribution that would be interesting to others. 

thank you and sorry didn't mean to sound like i'm educating, I was just stating the obvious that there is always a possibility of a phase! I am not young i'm an old weather geek tbh and ive been following this board for 15 years already and I decided to make an account. Have a good weekend sir

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

whats this called ?

Snow 

[David-LI]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

whats this called ?

Fantasy

But if it happens looks like an overrunning?

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snow 

i would rather wait a few days and have that second round verify on 1/18 -1/19

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

I took the photo below in April 2024.  This from a park in upstate NY called Mexico Point State Park.  It’s on the shore of Lake Ontario right in the heart of the snow belt country.  It looks and feels like the shore of LI Sound.  A town called Pulaski just a few miles away recorded 4 feet of snow in two days with a lake effect event in the past two weeks.  If you want to see KU style snow events each year this is where you need to be.

went fishing there a couple times back in 90 and 91. i've heard the epic man made salmon runs are largely a thing of the past in most of the lakes, as the invasive alewives themselves could not survive the lakes. efforts are underway to restore natural fisheries, though iirc ontario did have salmon at one time, unlike the other lakes. the fishing i saw there did not make me want to go back, i'll say that. but i was fishing with a bunch of amateurs.....i had read a recent book on the lakes and there is a documentary out there i saw, i've always been fascinated by these huge freshwater seas.....even this photo does not impart the sheer vastness of the lake....

[weatherpruf]

55 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Miller As are touch and go.  Some of the biggest storms we ever got are Miller As but so are some of our biggest busts.  And not the good kind of busts.

but so are miller b's....we can miss the phase....right?

[weatherpruf]

40 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

There were places just north and east of the big zone this year that got well over 100" in the big event last year. The dick waving banter in the local Fb groups in that area is funny.

i simply would not want to live in such a place. there's such a thing as too much of a good thing. 4-8 is about right.

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

but so are miller b's....we can miss the phase....right?

Then its not a miller b. Its a whiff.  Miller bs are more reliable IMO - but they can whiff kicker and miss of course

[weatherpruf]

14 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

thank you and sorry didn't mean to sound like i'm educating, I was just stating the obvious that there is always a possibility of a phase! I am not young i'm an old weather geek tbh and ive been following this board for 15 years already and I decided to make an account. Have a good weekend sir

its a message board; don't take it personally. you'd probably be friends in the real world, because there aren't many out there who enjoy snow....not in these parts.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Then its not a miller b. Its a whiff.  Miller bs are more reliable IMO - but they can whiff kicker and miss of course

my understanding is the storm can phase too far east or north....seen that more than a few times.....jan 2015, march 2001....they were still good storms, just not for us....i did get 7 inches in jan 2015 though, and 6 in feb 2013, which felt like a win after that winter....if those were miller b's....

[cleetussnow]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

my understanding is the storm can phase too far east or north....seen that more than a few times.....jan 2015, march 2001....they were still good storms, just not for us....i did get 7 inches in jan 2015 though, and 6 in feb 2013, which felt like a win after that winter....if those were miller b's....

Oh yeah. They phase in the wrong place at the wrong time for sure.  A Miller A is a blind dart throw.  Inland runner, cosstal runner, benchmark…my bust memories are miller As.