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January 2026 OBS and Discussion


TriPol
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5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton is unsure about this but mentions in their discussion its possible - anyones guess right now

Looks like good snow showers and squalls over Appalachian mountains and inland regions of PA and New England. Those rarely ever make it to the coast. Looks cold enough for accumulation though if anything does fall. 

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1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks like good snow showers and squalls over Appalachian mountains and inland regions of PA and New England. Those rarely ever make it to the coast. Looks cold enough for accumulation though if anything does fall. 

Lets see

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_78.png

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Looks nice and cold to end December and to start January. That warmup became very muted and only limited to like 2 days, as opposed to some depictions of a torch between Christmas and New Years. But throughout the first week of January, the Northeast is really the only region that will be colder than normal. Yes, there is an increasing likelihood that areas further west and south become colder but they've been so warm for so long now. Typical La Nina down there I guess, but the persistent warmth in the west and Central US is more surprising

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31 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks decent for some light snow accumulations in New England on New Years day but those usually don't pan out well for us down here. FROPA is usually all dried out for us

Arctic FROPA’s tend to squeeze whatever little bit of moisture there is out of the atmosphere when they pass. There may be some dustings/coatings in parts of the area, but that’s about it. As you said, we normally end up getting the downsloping NW flow off the Apps which usually dries the snow showers and squalls out 

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Still FROPA. Extremely minimal QPF

Nothing more than mood flakes most likely. Models have the tendency to overdo depictions of snow showers (which can perform very well for Upstate PA, NY and New England but completely dry out by the time they reach here. Either way, temps in the 20s all throughout so anything that does fall will stick but unlikely anything falls at all

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1 hour ago, North and West said:


In your estimation, what are the time frames for this? I know there are dates on the models, but do they pan out correctly? I have to go to Germany for work in two weeks.


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It's too soon to pin down events or dates, but not too soon to be looking at these:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2025122912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eu_40.png

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