January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

you have the precip outlook maps to post ? - this time of year below normal temps here  almost guarantee frozen precip

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you have the precip outlook maps to post ? - this time of year below normal temps here  almost guarantee frozen precip

 

[MJO812]

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Upton is unsure about this but mentions in their discussion its possible - anyones guess right now

[WeatherGeek2025]

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton is unsure about this but mentions in their discussion its possible - anyones guess right now

FROPA

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

FROPA

Yep right now

[Krs4Lfe]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton is unsure about this but mentions in their discussion its possible - anyones guess right now

Looks like good snow showers and squalls over Appalachian mountains and inland regions of PA and New England. Those rarely ever make it to the coast. Looks cold enough for accumulation though if anything does fall. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks like good snow showers and squalls over Appalachian mountains and inland regions of PA and New England. Those rarely ever make it to the coast. Looks cold enough for accumulation though if anything does fall. 

Lets see

[Krs4Lfe]

Looks decent for some light snow accumulations in New England on New Years day but those usually don't pan out well for us down here. FROPA is usually all dried out for us

[Krs4Lfe]

Looks nice and cold to end December and to start January. That warmup became very muted and only limited to like 2 days, as opposed to some depictions of a torch between Christmas and New Years. But throughout the first week of January, the Northeast is really the only region that will be colder than normal. Yes, there is an increasing likelihood that areas further west and south become colder but they've been so warm for so long now. Typical La Nina down there I guess, but the persistent warmth in the west and Central US is more surprising

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks decent for some light snow accumulations in New England on New Years day but those usually don't pan out well for us down here. FROPA is usually all dried out for us

Arctic FROPA’s tend to squeeze whatever little bit of moisture there is out of the atmosphere when they pass. There may be some dustings/coatings in parts of the area, but that’s about it. As you said, we normally end up getting the downsloping NW flow off the Apps which usually dries the snow showers and squalls out 

[MJO812]

Rgem

[MJO812]

Have to watch this

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Have to watch this

Still FROPA. Extremely minimal QPF

[mob1]

This is probably the next period to highlight 

[Krs4Lfe]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Still FROPA. Extremely minimal QPF

Nothing more than mood flakes most likely. Models have the tendency to overdo depictions of snow showers (which can perform very well for Upstate PA, NY and New England but completely dry out by the time they reach here. Either way, temps in the 20s all throughout so anything that does fall will stick but unlikely anything falls at all

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, mob1 said:

This is probably the next period to highlight 

Gfs has a couple clippers around that time

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs has a couple clippers around that time

Big dog on the cmc. Eps is hinting at this timeframe. 

[NJwx85]

If we can get some decent blocking the pattern is ripe for a big Miller B.

[binbisso]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big dog on the cmc. Eps is hinting at this timeframe. 

Ec-ai too and a few days later 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Ec-ai too and a few days later 

Yep very loaded

[NEG NAO]

impressive to say the least - individual storms produced by this still to be determined

[North and West]

Ec-ai too and a few days later 

In your estimation, what are the time frames for this? I know there are dates on the models, but do they pan out correctly? I have to go to Germany for work in two weeks.


.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

In your estimation, what are the time frames for this? I know there are dates on the models, but do they pan out correctly? I have to go to Germany for work in two weeks.


.

It's too soon to pin down events or dates, but not too soon to be looking at these:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2025122912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eu_40.png

[RU848789]

At the 30,000 foot level, the EPS, GEPS and GEFS ensemble means are far more similar (for 95, inland and even through interior PA, NY, New England) out to 360 hrs than they are different, indicating pretty good agreement on the general idea of a snowy period with most of this falling after 1/5 (all have <1" for most of the 95 corridor from DC thru NYC and even inland a bit through then and).

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Some nice potential from off hour gfs op. A bit suppressed but it's nice to see snowy solutions showing. 

Best to take it one day at a time though otherwise you'll drive yourself nuts. 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs has something around the 5th and the 8th-9th

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs has something around the 5th and the 8th-9th

Any maps too post showing it ?

[EastonSN+]