26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAM a good bump SW unfortunately .. let's hope the qpf overcorrected south for you guys, everyone still gets plowable which is a win from where we were 

Sobering up.

[CoastalWx]

As soon as Tblizz gets excited we get porked. I want depressed Tblizz back. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3k is not SW

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

lol that’s awesome. Basically just halved totals for SNE in one run. Completely loses the push of heavy snow here.

Sucked us all back in for 2 days only to pull the rug out 12 hours before 

[CoastalWx]

Yes. Now he’s back. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

lol that’s awesome. Basically just halved totals for SNE in one run. Completely loses the push of heavy snow here.

Sucked us all back in for 2 days only to pull the rug out 12 hours before 

Maybe it sucked you back in.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Maybe it sucked you back in.

He got C-Teased.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

lol that’s awesome. Basically just halved totals for SNE in one run. Completely loses the push of heavy snow here.

Sucked us all back in for 2 days only to pull the rug out 12 hours before 

Thank god the depressed Brett is back. SEMA rejoices. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Maybe it sucked you back in.

Looks like a lot of people were interested 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like a lot of people were interested 

So the NAM has the final call? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

He got C-Teased.

You almost have to respect the worst case scenario as the most possible outcome here now. Just the way it goes for winter weather in 2025

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You almost have to respect the worst case scenario as the most possible outcome here now. Just the way it goes for winter weather in 2025

That’s our boy. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You almost have to respect the worst case scenario as the most possible outcome here now. Just the way it goes for winter weather in 2025

What would you be happy with in this storm? 3"? I mean you are in Taunton correct, I've been tossing the NAM, if you do that, the EURO,GFS,HRRR, all have you at 2-3" if we assume 12:1 ratios or so..

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3k is not SW

You would get into the heavy stuff too on the 3km. The 3km definitely isn't bad looking. Its a wall of snow coming in but it quickly starts to lose its oomph as it moves east. 

[CoastalWx]

Hey Brett, it’s gone in two days anyways.  

[CoastalWx]

Think we get a few here which is cool with me. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3k is different than 12

[dendrite]

lol at putting your faith in the 12k nam when it’s well north of consensus. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

lol at putting your faith in the 12k nam when it’s well north of consensus. 

ehhh some people put faith in the Cowboys every year 

[Fozz]

The NAM is just a return to reality.

Nobody actually believed the 6z QPF when it was completely alone, right? Especially knowing its biases to overamp these systems.

[WxWatcher007]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hammer updating maps to 6-10” most of CT and 3-6” far NE 

Still like our map from yesterday. Glad I put in a high ceiling. I could see you with 6-8 easily while lower elevations like East Hartford is at 5-6". Steve is in the 2-5 zone but he probably does pretty well out there too. This should be a good one for CT. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like a lot of people were interested 

There is a clear difference in being interested in its output and taking them seriously. It has its usefulness in some aspects of storms but overall it’s a garbage model when it comes to winter storms.

[bristolri_wx]

The NAM has been having trouble with this one.  There are always a few storms every season where the NAM is totally out to lunch even when close to the start time.  Hard to discount the GFS+Euro+HRRR all looking very similar overall...

[Go Kart Mozart]

58 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Under the banding the snowfall rates would probably approach 2"/hr and maybe even upwards of 2.5". Feasibly, because of the crosshair signature (the -30 dissecting the snow growth zone) that should elicit great snowgrowth...the dendrites which accumulate quickly. I am a little worried though we may not get the perfect dendrites and snow growth will be a bit impacted by some dry air. 

The big question is what happens outside of the banding...that's where there could be more of a struggle and if we end up with multiple band signatures there will be some screw zones. In between these, perhaps even outside the banding, this is where you'll get more in the way of Arctic dust. 

Regardless, a widespread 4-7" is still in the cards but we need to be mindful there will be some screw zones. I don't think we'll see many totals eclipse 7-8" only because its really a 3 hour period of heavy accumulating snow and that's it. 

This is going to be fun to track in real time

Wiz, I gather that the "crosshair" indicates rapid lift through the DGZ.  What am I looking for on a skew-T to see that?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Most models spitting out around 0.3 here around Foxborough area. Think we lose some of that to saturation, but think ratios will be pretty good with the 700mb fronto push through the area. Think 2-4” is on the table.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still like our map from yesterday. Glad I put in a high ceiling. I could see you with 6-8 easily while lower elevations like East Hartford is at 5-6". Steve is in the 2-5 zone but he probably does pretty well out there too. This should be a good one for CT. 

He purposely cut it off right on TOL line . Has 3-6 here . He’s admitted in past sometimes he purposely does it 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

He purposely cut it off right on TOL line . Has 3-6 here 

3-6 for you. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What would you be happy with in this storm? 3"? I mean you are in Taunton correct, I've been tossing the NAM, if you do that, the EURO,GFS,HRRR, all have you at 2-3" if we assume 12:1 ratios or so..

3” would be nice 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

He purposely cut it off right on TOL line . Has 3-6 here 

Weak psyche 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Fozz said:

The NAM is just a return to reality.

Nobody actually believed the 6z QPF when it was completely alone, right? Especially knowing its biases to overamp these systems.

Hmm a lot of "users" in this "psychotropic crack-house" are not constrained by negations such as the bold ^ ... because it gets in the way of their high.  LOL  

Seriously ... if there were more willingness to objectivity, sans the most jerked off solution, that obvious and true aspect about the NAM would be elaborated upon by more people that just you and I and one or two randoms.   But that's not what this engagement's all about.