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26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.


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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

lol that’s awesome. Basically just halved totals for SNE in one run. Completely loses the push of heavy snow here.

Sucked us all back in for 2 days only to pull the rug out 12 hours before 

Maybe it sucked you back in.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

lol that’s awesome. Basically just halved totals for SNE in one run. Completely loses the push of heavy snow here.

Sucked us all back in for 2 days only to pull the rug out 12 hours before 

Thank god the depressed Brett is back. SEMA rejoices. 

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You almost have to respect the worst case scenario as the most possible outcome here now. Just the way it goes for winter weather in 2025

What would you be happy with in this storm? 3"? I mean you are in Taunton correct, I've been tossing the NAM, if you do that, the EURO,GFS,HRRR, all have you at 2-3" if we assume 12:1 ratios or so..

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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hammer updating maps to 6-10” most of CT and 3-6” far NE 

Still like our map from yesterday. Glad I put in a high ceiling. I could see you with 6-8 easily while lower elevations like East Hartford is at 5-6". Steve is in the 2-5 zone but he probably does pretty well out there too. This should be a good one for CT. 

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12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like a lot of people were interested 

There is a clear difference in being interested in its output and taking them seriously. It has its usefulness in some aspects of storms but overall it’s a garbage model when it comes to winter storms.

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58 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Under the banding the snowfall rates would probably approach 2"/hr and maybe even upwards of 2.5". Feasibly, because of the crosshair signature (the -30 dissecting the snow growth zone) that should elicit great snowgrowth...the dendrites which accumulate quickly. I am a little worried though we may not get the perfect dendrites and snow growth will be a bit impacted by some dry air. 

The big question is what happens outside of the banding...that's where there could be more of a struggle and if we end up with multiple band signatures there will be some screw zones. In between these, perhaps even outside the banding, this is where you'll get more in the way of Arctic dust. 

Regardless, a widespread 4-7" is still in the cards but we need to be mindful there will be some screw zones. I don't think we'll see many totals eclipse 7-8" only because its really a 3 hour period of heavy accumulating snow and that's it. 

This is going to be fun to track in real time

Wiz, I gather that the "crosshair" indicates rapid lift through the DGZ.  What am I looking for on a skew-T to see that?

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still like our map from yesterday. Glad I put in a high ceiling. I could see you with 6-8 easily while lower elevations like East Hartford is at 5-6". Steve is in the 2-5 zone but he probably does pretty well out there too. This should be a good one for CT. 

He purposely cut it off right on TOL line . Has 3-6 here . He’s admitted in past sometimes he purposely does it 

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16 minutes ago, Fozz said:

The NAM is just a return to reality.

Nobody actually believed the 6z QPF when it was completely alone, right? Especially knowing its biases to overamp these systems.

Hmm a lot of "users" in this "psychotropic crack-house" are not constrained by negations such as the bold ^ ... because it gets in the way of their high.  LOL  

Seriously ... if there were more willingness to objectivity, sans the most jerked off solution, that obvious and true aspect about the NAM would be elaborated upon by more people that just you and I and one or two randoms.   But that's not what this engagement's all about.   

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