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26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.


Go Kart Mozart
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There’s going to be a warm layer aloft but it probably won’t be significant for anyone in SNE but there’s a very real possibility NYC gets brief snow then goes to sleet. 
 

what the warm layer aloft will mean to us is where that warm front ends up residing and how strong exactly is it. Northeast of this is where the banding, snowfall rates, and ratios will be enhanced. 

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4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

my question to you guys is why are you using a model that's literally about to get discontinued? look at reggie and rap those are good mesoscale models

Because one thing its very very good at is sniffing out warm layers when other models don't 

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15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Won’t hear a single bad word from me if we somehow pull 4-6 from this 

You and me both. My son got all new snow gear and sled for Christmas and in the back of my head I was thinking what if he doesn't even get to use it this winter.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll be lucky to get 2", but ignore the NAM with respect to WAA at your own peril...no, it's not a SWFE per se, but you're still advecting a warm layer over top of a cold air mass.

We will both get accumulating snow,  I will be on the edge of maybe getting several inches.  Not huge, but definitely an interesting system.  

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