MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3k Nam came south with the heavy banding . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The op EURO and EPS has been rock solid for days, hasn’t budged at all on a general 4-6 inches area wide, run after run. Makes me believe it has the right idea Gfs has been pretty consistent to though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago This is going to be a brutal borderline to ride. I wouldn’t be surprised with 2 or 6” and were less than twelve hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Fv3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: This is going to be a brutal borderline to ride. I wouldn’t be surprised with 2 or 6” and were less than twelve hours out. Hrrr flips us to sleet by 8pm then it pushes the sleet line back south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Good trends this morning for those of us in Central NJ. No matter how long I'm at this, I STILL underestimate how much things can change at the (relatively) last minute...I was feeling pretty discouraged last night (I'm in southern Middlesex, near the Monmouth border). At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if I get an inch of sleety slop and also wouldn't be surprised if I get six inches of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Yes, new NAM caved, and now has whole of NYC region in 5"+ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The op EURO and EPS has been rock solid for days, hasn’t budged at all on a general 4-6 inches area wide, run after run. Makes me believe it has the right idea Of course you do. Not hugging the nam today? Other models that show more have been just as consistent. Also ratios will be in the 13-15:1 range in northern sections. Many areas will see 6-8. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Of course you do. Not hugging the nam today? Other models that show more have been just as consistent. Also ratios will be in the 13-15:1 range in northern sections. Many areas will see 6-8. The NAM isn’t showing much more than 6. Even the SREFs (NAM ensembles) are showing just over 6 as a max. Good try 3K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 12K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 SREFs: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122609&fh=39&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, snowman19 said: The NAM isn’t showing much more than 6. Good try In all fairness the NAM has handled the storm terribly. I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on that. I have no dog in this fight as I’m not in NYC but I think they do very well (5+) with this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said: Look at the STLR for my neck of the woods! Snow to liquid ratios will be at or above the climo normals in the 13-17:1 range from south to north across the forecast area. The precipitation efficiency will be the best in the southern most zones based on the latest hi resolution and short range guidance, as the best dendritic growth zone will be higher across the northern zones. All said, a widespread moderate to locally heavy snow event is expected over the forecast area. . We are in a good spot for around 8 tonight. It's going to come down hard for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago What time is this shindig starting in Westchester and rockland? Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: In all fairness the NAM has handled the storm terribly. I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on that. I have no dog in this fight as I’m not in NYC but I think they do very well (5+) with this setup. Even though it's been erratic it still shows a warm nose. The NAM for all its flaws scores well when mid levels can taint the precip. Could it be wrong? Sure, and I'm hoping it is but it'd be foolish not to take it into account. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The NAM isn’t showing much more than 6. Even the SREFs (NAM ensembles) are showing just over 6 as a max. Good try 3K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 12K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 SREFs: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122609&fh=39&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 ratios arent going to be 10:1 dude get over it!!!!!!!!! your posts are quite annoying to say the least. especially north of the city should be seeing 5-10" out of this with lolli's up to 12" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: What time is this shindig starting in Westchester and rockland? Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk 4PMish, give or take an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Nibor said: He said he was following the Euro Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Even though it's been erratic it still shows a warm nose. The NAM for all its flaws scores well when mid levels can taint the precip. Could it be wrong? Sure, and I'm hoping it is but it'd be foolish not to take it into account. Oh it’s in the mix of guidance, I use all of it though, not just one model which the OP does all the time. I know I’m gonna get mixing, that’s for sure - it’s just how much and I think the NAM is still clearly playing catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, TriPol said: I'll never forget the Valentines Day Storm of 2007. I had so much hope for that. So much f'ing sleet. yeah, but it was really impressive sleet...so. much so that henry marguisity quoted me on it....but it was a heartbreaking winter all around that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 850-700mb vertical velocity is the X factor. Really only about a 6 hour window for it to shine. Stronger, we stay snow, and heavy snow. Weaker, we ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Oh it’s in the mix of guidance, I use all of it though, not just one model which the OP does all the time. I know I’m gonna get mixing, that’s for sure - it’s just how much and I think the NAM is still clearly playing catch up It is kinda crazy how so many of the other models aren't capable of sniffing out the warm nose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: It is kinda crazy how so many of the other models aren't capable of sniffing out the warm nose Happens alot-the Dec 2020 was a good example where the sleet line ended up further north and the NAM was the only model that had it. That said the NAM has been all over the place with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Brian5671 said: Happens alot-the Dec 2020 was a good example where the sleet line ended up further north and the NAM was the only model that had it. That said the NAM has been all over the place with this one. It was too warm with the Feb SWFE last winter though because the snow came in heavy from the start. The strong lift and heavy rates help win the race against the mid levels warmth. I was on the south shore that evening and still had a good 4-5” thump before sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, Nibor said: Even though it's been erratic it still shows a warm nose. The NAM for all its flaws scores well when mid levels can taint the precip. Could it be wrong? Sure, and I'm hoping it is but it'd be foolish not to take it into account. TBH I think NYC and points northeastward will hit a decent bare minimum of like 3-5 inches unless absolutely everything goes wrong. We are really just relying on a strong snow band to hit the region which should be all snow before possible mixing concerns as the 850-700mb temp advection continues. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Some of the models do have sleet but then the mix line retreats as precip rates pick up. So we'll have to see how that plays out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It was too warm with the Feb SWFE last winter though because the snow came in heavy from the start. The strong lift and heavy rates help win the race against the mid levels warmth. I was on the south shore that evening and still had a good 4-5” thump before sleet. That's the key here-southern areas want a heavy thump of snow up front then went the sleet gets there it's mostly done with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It was too warm with the Feb SWFE last winter though because the snow came in heavy from the start. The strong lift and heavy rates help win the race against the mid levels warmth. I was on the south shore that evening and still had a good 4-5” thump before sleet. Yeah even Central park had over 3” with that one. Lots of 3-5” across the island. NAM usually sniffs out the warm nose pretty well but it can overdo it at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: TBH I think NYC and points northeastward will hit a decent bare minimum of like 3-5 inches unless absolutely everything goes wrong. We are really just relying on a strong snow band to hit the region which should be all snow before possible mixing concerns as the 850-700mb temp advection continues. I don't think anyone would argue against a decent snowfall before a change over. Some here, as is tradition, are looking at snow maps and not soundings setting themselves up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Rgem looks mostly unchanged. The mix line surges and then stalls around a Nb to SMQ line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem looks mostly unchanged. The mix line surges and then stalls around a Nb to SMQ line Looks about right to me. I could see it going a little further though and reaching SI/Brooklyn/JFK area. Can’t rule that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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