Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[MJO812]

3k Nam came south with the heavy banding .

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The op EURO and EPS has been rock solid for days, hasn’t budged at all on a general 4-6 inches area wide, run after run. Makes me believe it has the right idea

Gfs has been pretty consistent to though 

[BoulderWX]

This is going to be a brutal borderline to ride. I wouldn’t be surprised with 2 or 6” and were less than twelve hours out. 

[MJO812]

Fv3

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

This is going to be a brutal borderline to ride. I wouldn’t be surprised with 2 or 6” and were less than twelve hours out. 

Hrrr flips us to sleet by 8pm then it pushes the sleet line back south

[CentralNJSnowman]

Good trends this morning for those of us in Central NJ.  No matter how long I'm at this, I STILL underestimate how much things can change at the (relatively) last minute...I was feeling pretty discouraged last night (I'm in southern Middlesex, near the Monmouth border).  At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if I get an inch of sleety slop and also wouldn't be surprised if I get six inches of snow.

[Northof78]

Yes, new NAM caved, and now has whole of NYC region in 5"+

[HeadInTheClouds]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The op EURO and EPS has been rock solid for days, hasn’t budged at all on a general 4-6 inches area wide, run after run. Makes me believe it has the right idea

Of course you do. Not hugging the nam today? Other models that show more have been just as consistent. Also ratios will be in the 13-15:1 range in northern sections. Many areas will see 6-8.  

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Of course you do. Not hugging the nam today? Other models that show more have been just as consistent. Also ratios will be in the 13-15:1 range in northern sections. Many areas will see 6-8.  

The NAM isn’t showing much more than 6. Even the SREFs (NAM ensembles) are showing just over 6 as a max. Good try

3K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

12K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

SREFs: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122609&fh=39&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[BoulderWX]

Just now, snowman19 said:

The NAM isn’t showing much more than 6. Good try

In all fairness the NAM has handled the storm terribly. I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on that. I have no dog in this fight as I’m not in NYC but I think they do very well (5+) with this setup. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

Look at the STLR for my neck of the woods!

Snow to liquid ratios will be at
or above the climo normals in the 13-17:1 range from south to
north across the forecast area. The precipitation efficiency
will be the best in the southern most zones based on the latest
hi resolution and short range guidance, as the best dendritic
growth zone will be higher across the northern zones. All said,
a widespread moderate to locally heavy snow event is expected
over the forecast area.


.

We are in a good spot for around 8 tonight. It's going to come down hard for a while. 

[nycemt123]

What time is this shindig starting in Westchester and rockland?

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

In all fairness the NAM has handled the storm terribly. I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on that. I have no dog in this fight as I’m not in NYC but I think they do very well (5+) with this setup. 

Even though it's been erratic it still shows a warm nose. The NAM for all its flaws scores well when mid levels can taint the precip. Could it be wrong? Sure, and I'm hoping it is but it'd be foolish not to take it into account.

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM isn’t showing much more than 6. Even the SREFs (NAM ensembles) are showing just over 6 as a max. Good try

3K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

12K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025122612&fh=37&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

SREFs: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122609&fh=39&r=us_state_ne_s&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

ratios arent going to be 10:1 dude get over it!!!!!!!!! your posts are quite annoying to say the least. especially north of the city should be seeing 5-10" out of this with lolli's up to 12"

[BlueSkiesFading]

5 minutes ago, nycemt123 said:

What time is this shindig starting in Westchester and rockland?

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk
 

4PMish, give or take an hour. 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

He said he was following the Euro

Correct

[SACRUS]

 

 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Even though it's been erratic it still shows a warm nose. The NAM for all its flaws scores well when mid levels can taint the precip. Could it be wrong? Sure, and I'm hoping it is but it'd be foolish not to take it into account.

Oh it’s in the mix of guidance, I use all of it though, not just one model which the OP does all the time. I know I’m gonna get mixing, that’s for sure - it’s just how much and I think the NAM is still clearly playing catch up 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

I'll never forget the Valentines Day Storm of 2007. I had so much hope for that. So much f'ing sleet.

yeah, but it was really impressive sleet...so. much so that henry marguisity quoted me on it....but it was a heartbreaking winter all around that year.

[TJW014]

850-700mb vertical velocity is the X factor. Really only about a 6 hour window for it to shine. Stronger, we stay snow, and heavy snow. Weaker, we ping. 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Oh it’s in the mix of guidance, I use all of it though, not just one model which the OP does all the time. I know I’m gonna get mixing, that’s for sure - it’s just how much and I think the NAM is still clearly playing catch up 

It is kinda crazy how so many of the other models aren't capable of sniffing out the warm nose

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It is kinda crazy how so many of the other models aren't capable of sniffing out the warm nose

Happens alot-the Dec 2020 was a good example where the sleet line ended up further north and the NAM was the only model that had it.   That said the NAM has been all over the place with this one.

[jm1220]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Happens alot-the Dec 2020 was a good example where the sleet line ended up further north and the NAM was the only model that had it.   That said the NAM has been all over the place with this one.

It was too warm with the Feb SWFE last winter though because the snow came in heavy from the start. The strong lift and heavy rates help win the race against the mid levels warmth. I was on the south shore that evening and still had a good 4-5” thump before sleet. 

[SnowenOutThere]

12 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Even though it's been erratic it still shows a warm nose. The NAM for all its flaws scores well when mid levels can taint the precip. Could it be wrong? Sure, and I'm hoping it is but it'd be foolish not to take it into account.

TBH I think NYC and points northeastward will hit a decent bare minimum of like 3-5 inches unless absolutely everything goes wrong. We are really just relying on a strong snow band to hit the region which should be all snow before possible mixing concerns as the 850-700mb temp advection continues. 

[Stormlover74]

Some of the models do have sleet but then the mix line retreats as precip rates pick up. So we'll have to see how that plays out

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It was too warm with the Feb SWFE last winter though because the snow came in heavy from the start. The strong lift and heavy rates help win the race against the mid levels warmth. I was on the south shore that evening and still had a good 4-5” thump before sleet. 

That's the key here-southern areas want a heavy thump of snow up front then went the sleet gets there it's mostly done with

[Krs4Lfe]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It was too warm with the Feb SWFE last winter though because the snow came in heavy from the start. The strong lift and heavy rates help win the race against the mid levels warmth. I was on the south shore that evening and still had a good 4-5” thump before sleet. 

Yeah even Central park had over 3” with that one. Lots of 3-5” across the island. NAM usually sniffs out the warm nose pretty well but it can overdo it at times 

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

TBH I think NYC and points northeastward will hit a decent bare minimum of like 3-5 inches unless absolutely everything goes wrong. We are really just relying on a strong snow band to hit the region which should be all snow before possible mixing concerns as the 850-700mb temp advection continues. 

I don't think anyone would argue against a decent snowfall before a change over. Some here, as is tradition, are looking at snow maps and not soundings setting themselves up for disappointment.

[Stormlover74]

Rgem looks mostly unchanged. The mix line surges and then stalls around a Nb to SMQ line

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem looks mostly unchanged. The mix line surges and then stalls around a Nb to SMQ line

Looks about right to me. I could see it going a little further though and reaching SI/Brooklyn/JFK area. Can’t rule that out.