Possible Light Snowfall (1" - 4") on Tuesday Dec 23

[qg_omega]

NYC needs 0.2 to go above 3 inches, Kalshi odds only 45 percent for December.  Seems low to me

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

NYC needs 0.2 to go above 3 inches, Kalshi odds only 45 percent for December.  Seems low to me

I’d give them a decent shot now but we got a ways to go.  This system will probably have two maxes.  The area that gets hit from the initial warm advection and clipper and then from the developing surface low offshore.  Someone in between will get the shaft.  Right now the prime shaft zones may be places like central MA down through CT and central to eastern LI.  It’s a case where Morristown could see more snow than New Haven 

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

NYC needs 0.2 to go above 3 inches, Kalshi odds only 45 percent for December.  Seems low to me

Literally +110 odds lmao

[SI Mailman]

NYC needs 0.2 to go above 3 inches, Kalshi odds only 45 percent for December.  Seems low to me

We all know there could be 3 inches on the ground and they’d measure it as a trace

[North and West]

Not to mention, being December 23rd it will be practically the best sun angle possible, especially at night.

are you sure? We will already be past the solstice, so it’s sun angle city from here on out.




.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

NYC needs 0.2 to go above 3 inches, Kalshi odds only 45 percent for December.  Seems low to me

it's going to most likely be white rain!

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's going to most likely be white rain!

Definitely with the low heading north of the area. Would be white rain to start And then dry slot . And considering central park is notorious for under measurement, it would be like nothing ever fell 

[the_other_guy]

To play devils advocate, LGA has the same low measurement. They both seem low, but support each other

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Definitely with the low heading north of the area. Would be white rain to start And then dry slot . And considering central park is notorious for under measurement, it would be like nothing ever fell 

Stop posting 

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's going to most likely be white rain!

Maybe

[MJO812]

Nam was colder and further south 

 

[eduggs]

RRFS is even further south than 12z. Precip is not quite as robust as 12z but it's basically all snow for our area except maybe ELI. Quick burst then the forcing quickly fizzles. Not much snow for SNE. Good sign to see the south shift but we don't want to lose the signal for heavier banding.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

RRFS is even further south than 12z. Precip is not quite as robust as 12z but it's basically all snow for our area except maybe ELI. Quick burst then the forcing quickly fizzles. Not much snow for SNE. Good sign to see the south shift but we don't want to lose the signal for heavier banding.

 

[eduggs]

The RRFS actually has additional snow showers for the area (esp N) Tue night. Doubtful since there's not much support and the RRFS isn't reliable at the end of its run. But if the tight thermal boundary stays close to our area and we remain on the cold side, there will be chances for snow. Different models at different times have shown snow chances every day from Tue through Fri. It depends on the track of the very minor shortwaves in the longwave flow and how they interact with the thermal boundary. At some point next week I suspect we'll switch to warmth... but it's not certain yet.

[MJO812]

Rgem further north but its in the long range. 

[MJO812]

Icon

[eduggs]

The RGEM wasn't further north. The shortwave was actually a hair south. But lighter precipitation and different distribution of precipitation screwed the impression.

ICON and RRFS highlighting the potential for a narrow area of heavier banding. Some indications of possible 0.1" liquid per hour. It probably wouldn't last too long as it shifts east, but it could put down a quick couple of inches if we're lucky.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon

I still think any of these solutions is possible since we are still closer to 60 hours from the event - we are right on the border of the cold enough air and significant enough precip - could go either way.......

[snowman19]

Hot off the presses from NWS Upton. 
 

New anticipated Snowfall map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

New Disco: 

A near zonal northern stream flow will predominate through the
extended forecast period, except for Wednesday with a ridge building
from the Gulf coast states into central Canada. With the near zonal
flow temperatures will be generally near seasonal normals, with no
cold surges expected. Late Monday nigh a warm front will approach
from the southwest, and push through most of the area during the day
Tuesday. Light precipitation is likely with the front, and will
begin as light snow across the region late Monday night, then as the
warm air moves northward, the precipitation will mix with and
eventually change to rain, initially along the coast, and then
further inland as the day progresses. The warm air may not reach the
far inland section, mainly the Lower Hudson Valley, and a rain/snow
mix may continue through Tuesday. Bufkit soundings are indicating
the possibility of a wintry mix inland as warmer air aloft surges
northward. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible.
And with the upper levels drying through the day the precipitation
becomes light. With the uncertainty in precipitation type, and
timing will continue with just a rain/snow mix. 

High pressure builds into the region for late Tuesday

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I still think any of these solutions is possible since we are still closer to 60 hours from the event - we are right on the border of the cold enough air and significant enough precip - could go either way.......

Agree

[MJO812]

Gfs south 

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs south 

seems like a few models are shifting the colder air south along with more moisture and interaction with the warm front to the south 1 -4 inches still on the table as of now IMO...

[sussexcountyobs]

I don't do forecasts. But. Looking at all the forecasts I've seen right now. Looks like a good bet for a coating to 2" for NYC proper. 1-3"/2-4" nw of 287. 

Currently: clear, calm, 27.9

[snowman19]

Once again, the GEFS is in total disagreement with its own op, red flag: 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

NWS Blend of Models: 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[WeatherGeek2025]

i'll tell you one thing that snow Tuesday early am will be heavy with big flakes! if it's below freezing it's going to accumulate!

[dmillz25]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, the GEFS is in total disagreement with its own op, red flag: 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

NWS Blend of Models: 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Let the weenies have this one lol

[NEG NAO]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, the GEFS is in total disagreement with its own op, red flag: 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

NWS Blend of Models: 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122018&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

why are you posting a second link blend of models 6 hr snowfall that ends at 12Z 12/24 ? Plus its just not the GFS showing greater amounts

[sussexcountyobs]

31 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Let the weenies have this one lol

Please elaborate?

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why are you posting a second link blend of models 6 hr snowfall that ends at 12Z 12/24 ? Plus its just not the GFS showing greater amounts

Ignore him

Euro is further south but weaker 

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why are you posting a second link blend of models 6 hr snowfall that ends at 12Z 12/24 ? Plus its just not the GFS showing greater amounts

Huh? The link to the NWS blend of models is the TOTAL snowfall out to 89 hours, which is Wednesday. Look at what it’s showing…that’s now till Wednesday, total. And the GEFS is in complete disagreement with its own operational run, that is fact and it’s a red flag