December 14th - Snow showers or Plowable snow?

[CoastalWx]

At this point I don’t expect big changes on guidance. Just need to hope the mid level goodies can try and deliver to the pike. Probably will south coast.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not sure why. We tried. 

We’ll let em know tomorrow 

[moneypitmike]

56 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Conservative final call, may be nudged north 5-15 miles tonight if mesos beef up. 
 

I wouldn’t be surprised in 5-7” amounts along the immediate south coast if that fronto band clips there. 
 

With .25-.45” qpf model blend in southern CT 2-4” should be easily attainable and if we can get those ratios to :15:1 there will be some surprises. 

 

Thanks for dipping me into the 4-7 band.  That will amount to the 7" seasonal total I predicted in the earlier poll that I think Ray started.  Sticking with the 7". 

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z AI looks nice.

[weatherwiz]

Well after looking over this morning made some tweaks and here are some thoughts/reasonings to go along

• I originally wanted to do the ranges as 2-4" and C-2" yesterday but there are certain ranges I hate doing (2-5" and C-2" are a few of them). Not that I make these forecasts or maps for anyone (outside of just posting for friends and here) but those ranges drive me nuts. I guess they're fine when doing a larger area but they still drive me nuts. 
• I am still very cautious about how far north the fronto banding gets and for anything more than an inch of snow, it's going to be banding or bust. 
• Under the banding, is where snow growth and ratios will be maximized with ratios upwards of 15:1 and maybe even 18:1 if the banding verifies even stronger. Caveat with this is, the stronger the banding, the greater the likelihood there will be some degree of subsidence north of the banding. 
• Outside of the banding, snow growth and subsequent flake size will struggle. Under the banding you'll see the flat and fluffy dendrites, outside of the banding we'll see much smaller flakes size and the rates are going to be relatively meh and accumulation won't be sufficient (hence the Up to a coating). Radar is just going to be kind of putrid looking, except where the banding is. 
• The other issue is going to be the speed - this won't be as much of a factor where the fronto evolves (but will make it difficult to get widespread totals > 5", but we're only looking at maybe 4-6 hours of snow with rates not even close to 1/2" per hour. 

 

[ineedsnow]

12z UKIE even gives a inch or two here.. we take!

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z UKIE even gives a inch or two here.. we take!

It seems to be overdoing the low level moisture on the northern edge. There will probably be some radar echoes even up here, but not much reaching the ground.

Some of the mesos have a little inverted trough enhancement in coastal NH/MA on the tailend as the H5 low/vortmax moves into the region.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks to me like 2-4 most of state north of 95 and 3-6” south. Exception CTRV north of HFD with 1”or less especially BDL north 

South of 95 in CT is about 0 -3 miles. 

[JKEisMan]

HREF looks good

 

[dendrite]

Did mekster draw this?

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Did mekster draw this?

 

Even managed to get me close to the 2-3 range.  I wonder if any of that is from stuff falling today.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Even managed to get me close to the 2-3 range.  I wonder if any of that is from stuff falling today.

I think it’s the low probability of a little weenie norlun I mentioned. That may explain the shape too.

[CT Rain]

The GFS has only 0.15" of liquid in Hartford but this is a damn good snow growth setup. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The GFS has only 0.15" of liquid in Hartford but this is a damn good snow growth setup. 

What’s your latest thoughts with everything beefing up? 

[FlashFreeze]

light snow just started 26°

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What’s your latest thoughts with everything beefing up? 

I'd say 2-4" up to HFD and 1-2 north. 

I-95 corridor may be a bit close to 32F for really good ratios. 

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'd say 2-4" up to HFD and 1-2 north. 

I-95 corridor may be a bit close to 32F for really good ratios. 

South of 195 is even worse.  BOX has the new Pit as rain until after midnight.

[Damage In Tolland]

Light snow flying around out there 

[dendrite]

Calculated some Cobb snow estimates from the 12z gfs and nam (respectively)

CON 0.0/0.1
PWM 0.1/0.4
BOS 0.9/1.1
ORH 0.7/0.5
PSF 1.9/0.7
EWB 3.5/3.7
HYA 0.8/3.7
BDL 0.7/0.3
HFD 3.2/1.0
HVN 1.3/2.5
GON 1.3/3.4
PVD 2.1/2.9

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Feel like somewhere like lakeville or carver would be the best spot to pull a surprise 6. Might be the sweet spot or ratios and dynamics there

[weatherwiz]

Getting flurries 

[CT Rain]

Midday video update if anyone's interested lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F45qrarkeBY

 

[weatherwiz]

flurries falling

[CoastalWx]

Euro seems to hint at drier air near pike. Hope it stays north. 

[UnitedWx]

Very light snow / flurries in Westfield the last half hour 

[Shaun Curry]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Conservative final call, may be nudged north 5-15 miles tonight if mesos beef up. 
 

I wouldn’t be surprised in 5-7” amounts along the immediate south coast if that fronto band clips there. 
 

With .25-.45” qpf model blend in southern CT 2-4” should be easily attainable and if we can get those ratios to :15:1 there will be some surprises. 

You can almost put a pin on my house on the line between 2-4" and 4-7" at the top of Point Judith Pond in South Kingstown, RI.

[UnitedWx]

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Midday video update if anyone's interested lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F45qrarkeBY

 

Looking forward to the YouTube videos Ryan. I hope it works out well, seeing as 80 percent of what i watch is there... and lacking serious meteorologists

[CTSkywarn]

Of course I am in the UK right now until Tuesday and will miss the south coast CT special, it sounds like.  Hopefully not the only advisory level event this season.  Upper 40s here, clear skies right now.  

[ineedsnow]

Light snow.in leominster right now

[weathafella]

25 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Midday video update if anyone's interested lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F45qrarkeBY

 

Great presentation Ryan.  If anything my advice would be to use a virtual background.