December 14th - Snow showers or Plowable snow?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

C-2” deal except maybe south coast and Cape can still get something a little higher. 

Something tells me 1-2” is going to be hard to come by outside of the cape. Just a feeling.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Something tells me 1-2” is going to be hard to come by outside of the cape. Just a feeling.

NAMs and HRRR show Litchfield county getting some bonus snow tomorrow night too.. Watch them jack

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Something tells me 1-2” is going to be hard to come by outside of the cape. Just a feeling.

Might be. Dry air will be eating away at the precip shield as it moves ENE. Could be a scenario where SW CT does a lot better than SE MA outside of the Cape. 

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might be. Dry air will be eating away at the precip shield as it moves ENE. Could be a scenario where SW CT does a lot better than SE MA outside of the Cape. 

I thought the airmass was well saturated?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I thought the airmass was well saturated?

Trending drier on the meh guidance especially as you go NE / dry air then fights in from the NW Sunday morning with the front 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAMs and HRRR show Litchfield county getting some bonus snow tomorrow night too.. Watch them jack

Interesting that high res does have some snow in the air tomorrow. Not much but would be festive. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah this has Bruce Willis flags with flow out of the NW from 850 and below. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Would be funny if we all got a coating to an inch or less and it was all done before sunrise so no one saw a flake.. 

[Brian5671]

NAMS looks awful for just about everyone

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

NAMS looks awful for just about everyone

It's usually an awful model close to an event 

[SouthCoastMA]

Nothing impressive. 1-3" is my call. The storm seemed to lose that vort hang back, jog north that was being advertised on the 12/10 18z Euro. That would've made it interesting. 

Also, definitely not buying the 6z Euro's .5 liquid..which would be 4-6" 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Nothing impressive. 1-3" is my call

Definitely not buying the 6z Euro's .5 liquid..which would be 4-6" 

Gonna look pretty cool at the heritage museum lights. Hope you get at least a couple. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Gonna look pretty cool at the heritage museum lights. Hope you get at least a couple. 

Ya, kinda wish I was going this weekend. My tickets are for 12/20..so expecting bare ground by then. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's usually an awful model close to an event 

The fact it hasn’t given me 2-4” on a run yet is a bad sign.

[weatherwiz]

I think the northern extent for anything accumulating beyond a coating will be Long Island and maybe extreme southern RI. The DGZ is certainly very deep and the potential for ratios to be great (>15:1) are high, however, we will need to at least generate enough lift into the DGZ (which is thankfully low) but just don't see that happening. Yeah I know the famous if's...if x does this or y does that but maybe most will at least see a coating but there is the risk for alot of virga (think Will said) so we'll have to rely on localized areas of stronger lift so it's possible many struggle to even get a coating 

[Damage In Tolland]

Hammertime!

 

[CoastalWx]

Reggie cut back just a bit but still aggressive. Tough to buy in.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

RRFS back to earth looks like Euro now, I think the Nam's have the right idea as they are a blend of EURO and GFS

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie cut back just a bit but still aggressive. Tough to buy in.

Ya tossing reggie and 6z euro.. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie cut back just a bit but still aggressive. Tough to buy in.

Actually improved here. Looks like we’d get some form of CCB for a bit 

[ORH_wxman]

Not buying Reggie 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not buying Reggie 

Nope

[QuietCorner]

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/festive-light-snowfall-likely-sunday.html

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nope

 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Small improvement on the gfs 

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS improved a bit

[CoastalWx]

Went from a coating to maybe an inch on gfs. 

[SouthCoastMA]

If anything, this GFS run might be indicatng the floor (1") while eliminating the complete whiff scenario. 

[ORH_wxman]

Need a lot more than that outside of the Cape/South coast