Saturday night/Sunday 12/13-12/14 Jawn

[LVblizzard]

54 minutes ago, simbasad2 said:

What the hell is this 00z NAM lmfao... I think this solution is unlikely at the moment so this doesn't worry me, but this is a really funny snow map

NAM doing NAM things. It will look entirely different at 6z.

[Albedoman]

The higher snow ratios maybe achieved north of South Mountain which could  lead to a solid 3-5 inch snow event even in the LV if get good digging and upper moisture.  South of South Mountain range will be more moisture acceptable so this is a tough call for the LV.  The mesos are also having a tough time absorbing the digging aspect of this event -- the GFS was lost-- and the fact there maybe one hell of alot of virga throughout the profile until it collapses. We have a lot of cold dry air to overcome for this event to unfold. This storm event could easily become a debbie downer based on this fact, especially for those north of Philly.  

[LVblizzard]

12 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

The higher snow ratios maybe achieved north of South Mountain which could  lead to a solid 3-5 inch snow event even in the LV if get good digging and upper moisture.  South of South Mountain range will be more moisture acceptable so this is a tough call for the LV.  The mesos are also having a tough time absorbing the digging aspect of this event -- the GFS was lost-- and the fact there maybe one hell of alot of virga throughout the profile until it collapses. We have a lot of cold dry air to overcome for this event to unfold. This storm event could easily become a debbie downer based on this fact, especially for those north of Philly.  

I went with 2-4” yesterday for our area and I’m making my final call tomorrow morning. I’m pretty sure I’ll be sticking with that. I expect closer to 2” for most of the area but I can’t rule out banding upping totals to 3-4” for some people.

[Albedoman]

40 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I went with 2-4” yesterday for our area and I’m making my final call tomorrow morning. I’m pretty sure I’ll be sticking with that. I expect closer to 2” for most of the area but I can’t rule out banding upping totals to 3-4” for some people.

Its a tough call period. Banding could be an issue as the  S Mountain area favors that the last few years. I got nearly 16 inches a few years ago while other got less than 6 inches. Either way it goes, the snow will immediately stick given given how cold it is right now. The big tell, is how cold and dry it is right now 14 degrees at my house with dew points in the single digits.  That is a hell of lot of dry air to overcome in this typical alberta clipper. I expect a lot of virga. That is why this event is a wait and see game if the moisture gets more involved with this clipper before the shortwave digs in off the coast. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

I went with 2-4” yesterday for our area and I’m making my final call tomorrow morning. I’m pretty sure I’ll be sticking with that. I expect closer to 2” for most of the area but I can’t rule out banding upping totals to 3-4” for some people.

I went 2-3" in general Friday morning with 4" pockets and see no reason to deviate. Pretty straightforward little system.

[Newman]

6z Euro is quite a bit more wet for the Lehigh Valley. Solid 2-4", many of the mesos are also bringing WWA amounts north. Should be a solid event for the area. 

[Newman]

1am sounding for Allentown off the 3k, wow! Plenty of ascent right in the DGZ. The 10pm - 3am timeframe will probably be when the LHV gets the best rates before everything shunts southeast. Snow might be done by sunrise tomorrow morning

[penndotguy]

13 minutes ago, Newman said:

6z Euro is quite a bit more wet for the Lehigh Valley. Solid 2-4", many of the mesos are also bringing WWA amounts north. Should be a solid event for the area. 

Mt Holly upped our totals out here to 2-4” with WWA Posted now. I would expect DP’s to rise somewhat today with temps mid and upper 30’s and the Se winds. 

[Newman]

Close to go time I know, but 6z EPS bumped up QPF as well. Upper-levels ticking more favorably, hopefully the ticks continue right up to storm onset.

Philly EPS mean is 4" and probability of snowfall exceeding 4" is now 53%.

[anthonyweather]

Hrrr and rap are gonna give yall jawns a heart attack


.

[JTA66]

Yep, we just got jawn’d…I mean HRRR’d and NAM’d.

31F/DP 24F

[Ralph Wiggum]

Side note, since im in point pleasant I was lucky to score this local brew. I hope its tasty! Seems fitting for a 1am beach excursion 

[Newman]

HRRR has a band with 1"+ rates set up over Lancaster -> Lehigh from about midnight through 4am. Whoever ends up under that 850-700mb fronto band for an extended period of time will easily grab 4-6"

[Hurricane Agnes]

12z 3K NAM

 

[penndotguy]

6 minutes ago, Newman said:

HRRR has a band with 1"+ rates set up over Lancaster -> Lehigh from about midnight through 4am. Whoever ends up under that 850-700mb fronto band for an extended period of time will easily grab 4-6"

I mentioned that yesterday, that has happened out here before during a clipper system. not out of the question

[ChescoWx]

Some models for all - which one will be closest to reality?

[The Iceman]

2-4” with lollipops of 6” seems like a safe bet at this point

[LVblizzard]

The HRRR keeps getting more aggressive with the banding. 14z run that just came out has 3-4 hours of near 1”/hr rates along and just south of I-78.

[simbasad2]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

HRRR has a band with 1"+ rates set up over Lancaster -> Lehigh from about midnight through 4am. Whoever ends up under that 850-700mb fronto band for an extended period of time will easily grab 4-6"

Agreed. Was originally thinking that it was going to be in South Jersey but overnight guidance has lead me to believe it'll be somewhere right along I-95.

[LVblizzard]

Not sure how much globals matter at this point, but the 12z GFS has finally fully caught on and has a nice solid 3-6” storm for this entire subforum.