Saturday night/Sunday 12/13-12/14 Jawn

[LVblizzard]

54 minutes ago, simbasad2 said:

What the hell is this 00z NAM lmfao... I think this solution is unlikely at the moment so this doesn't worry me, but this is a really funny snow map

NAM doing NAM things. It will look entirely different at 6z.

[Albedoman]

The higher snow ratios maybe achieved north of South Mountain which could  lead to a solid 3-5 inch snow event even in the LV if get good digging and upper moisture.  South of South Mountain range will be more moisture acceptable so this is a tough call for the LV.  The mesos are also having a tough time absorbing the digging aspect of this event -- the GFS was lost-- and the fact there maybe one hell of alot of virga throughout the profile until it collapses. We have a lot of cold dry air to overcome for this event to unfold. This storm event could easily become a debbie downer based on this fact, especially for those north of Philly.  

[LVblizzard]

12 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

The higher snow ratios maybe achieved north of South Mountain which could  lead to a solid 3-5 inch snow event even in the LV if get good digging and upper moisture.  South of South Mountain range will be more moisture acceptable so this is a tough call for the LV.  The mesos are also having a tough time absorbing the digging aspect of this event -- the GFS was lost-- and the fact there maybe one hell of alot of virga throughout the profile until it collapses. We have a lot of cold dry air to overcome for this event to unfold. This storm event could easily become a debbie downer based on this fact, especially for those north of Philly.  

I went with 2-4” yesterday for our area and I’m making my final call tomorrow morning. I’m pretty sure I’ll be sticking with that. I expect closer to 2” for most of the area but I can’t rule out banding upping totals to 3-4” for some people.

[Albedoman]

40 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I went with 2-4” yesterday for our area and I’m making my final call tomorrow morning. I’m pretty sure I’ll be sticking with that. I expect closer to 2” for most of the area but I can’t rule out banding upping totals to 3-4” for some people.

Its a tough call period. Banding could be an issue as the  S Mountain area favors that the last few years. I got nearly 16 inches a few years ago while other got less than 6 inches. Either way it goes, the snow will immediately stick given given how cold it is right now. The big tell, is how cold and dry it is right now 14 degrees at my house with dew points in the single digits.  That is a hell of lot of dry air to overcome in this typical alberta clipper. I expect a lot of virga. That is why this event is a wait and see game if the moisture gets more involved with this clipper before the shortwave digs in off the coast.