12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

??

this is better than 06z for almost everyone here 

TSSN’s computer screen is zoomed way in on Hanover, PA and doesn’t look anywhere else. 

[TJ3]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm convinced it's a dna hardwired trait. I was obsessed with snow when I was 2 and my parents didn't care for it all that much. There was no conditioning and I was too young to understand science. Simply born this way... for better or worse... probably worse 

I definitely believe I’m hardwire for snow. My parents didn’t know what to make of it when I was a child. Then as teenager when I witnessed PD I, well, it cemented in me forever. 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Talking about the main slug and overall precip field. Low closer to coast too.

 

 

Sorry I was trying to factor in your location. You worrying about more N usually is bad for most of us 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Last four runs.  Precip shield has shifted W into western NVA and N/W into the NW areas in MD.  

Went from flurries here to 3-5” in 24hrs on the gfs. Solid work 

[snowfan]

Just now, nj2va said:

TSSN’s computer screen is zoomed way in on Hanover, PA and doesn’t look anywhere else. 

Dude took a hit of snow weenie bump this morning. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Sorry I was trying to factor in your location. You worrying about more N usually is bad for most of us 

Wasn’t talking about 50 miles north haha just meant the whole thing keeps backing up to the nw each run. 

[DDweatherman]

That 4 run loop of the gfs is sweet. Look at the QPF max increasing as well on the east side out towards NJ. In general, slightly slower, more amplified system and some great rates in the main bands. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z GFS now has a surface low off the Jersey coast, which allows precip to fill in better. Looks like 0.5" QPF line bumps back from Delaware to the Harford/Cecil County line.

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Talking about the main slug and overall precip field. Low closer to coast too.

 

 

Looking a lil bit more like an actual storm there,  unless I'm seeing things it looks like a lil bit of a coastal signal there compared to 06z... 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

TSSN’s computer screen is zoomed way in on Hanover, PA and doesn’t look anywhere else. 

Hey I don’t use a computer, I use my phone so ha! Lol. 

[WxUSAF]

Some personal MBY stats.  Biggest December snowfall since 2009 is 3.3", which happened in both 2017 and 2020.  Think I got a puncher's chance to top that.  

[winter_warlock]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

??

this is better than 06z for almost everyone here 

I'll take that for 2000 alex!!!

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Some personal MBY stats.  Biggest December snowfall since 2009 is 3.3", which happened in both 2017 and 2020.  Think I got a puncher's chance to top that.  

I honestly don’t remember the last December snow for me outside some snow showers or like 1” or whatever. I was in Westminster before this past year. 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

??

this is better than 06z for almost everyone here 

Weenie run for Baltimore!

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Some personal MBY stats.  Biggest December snowfall since 2009 is 3.3", which happened in both 2017 and 2020.  Think I got a puncher's chance to top that.  

I think you get 3" of snow from this.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Better for the nw crew yes. The difference between yesterday run and today is big nw jump.

I told y'all in my post last night it was happening and why. It has been incremental over several runs as guidance has been getting a better handle on the h5 vorticity interactions.

[WxUSAF]

Nice sounding in the band as it starts cranking around 1am in @mappyland

[baltosquid]

I'm a little worried about some models running on the north end of the envelope we've seen, I think at this point the fail case for 95 is temps come in a tad high and a slightly overamped storm screws us with too much rain in the early morning to get much. Fingers crossed we see the GFS or something like it pan out...

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I think you get 3" of snow from this.

3" seems like a decent floor right now based guidance.  Was thinking more 2-2.5" yesterday.  4" might be a stretch, but possible.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I told y'all in my post last night it was happening and why. It has been incremental over several runs as guidance has been getting a better handle on the h5 vorticity interactions.

I expect a new snowy cabin profile pic!

[CAPE]

Just now, nj2va said:

I expect a new snowy cabin profile pic!

Yeah I'm a little late changing from my Fall pic aren't I? 

[T. August]

4 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

I'm a little worried about some models running on the north end of the envelope we've seen, I think at this point the fail case for 95 is temps come in a tad high and a slightly overamped storm screws us with too much rain in the early morning to get much. Fingers crossed we see the GFS or something like it pan out...

Like I posted earlier, I think worst-case scenario would too warm at the start but then heavy snow at 33°. I think 2” is almost guaranteed.

[TSSN+]

I’m thinking it’s time for Lwx to push advisories back west some 

[HighStakes]

This is turning into a pretty serious event especially for mid-December. This is the opposite of what we usually see occur. As we get closer the snow amounts keep increasing and the cold shot is looking stronger behind the snow. 3-6 inches followed by wind and teens is quite impressive. Low teens Monday morning then highs only in the 20's and flurries likely. 

[baltosquid]

RAP 15z is a bit north

[WxUSAF]

Let's goooo clouds.  Keep the temps as low as possible.  

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, T. August said:

Like I posted earlier, I think worst-case scenario would too warm at the start but then heavy snow at 33°. I think 2” is almost guaranteed.

Looking at the HRRR now, even with temps reaching low/mid 40s for majority of the area, DPs are below freezing, and the 925 freezing line cuts through C MD this afternoon (aka cold air is close above).  I don’t think temps will be a major concern - but will lose some at the start in the usual spots.

[dailylurker]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I told y'all in my post last night it was happening and why. It has been incremental over several runs as guidance has been getting a better handle on the h5 vorticity interactions.

I feel like it's not a big nw jog. The precipitation area has expanded to include a lot more people. 

[winter_warlock]

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z GFS now has a surface low off the Jersey coast, which allows precip to fill in better. Looks like 0.5" QPF line bumps back from Delaware to the Harford/Cecil County line.

   Central North Maryland  may be entering warning criteria if this trend keeps up

[baltosquid]

12z CMC is largely unchanged