nj2va Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: ?? this is better than 06z for almost everyone here TSSN’s computer screen is zoomed way in on Hanover, PA and doesn’t look anywhere else. 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm convinced it's a dna hardwired trait. I was obsessed with snow when I was 2 and my parents didn't care for it all that much. There was no conditioning and I was too young to understand science. Simply born this way... for better or worse... probably worse I definitely believe I’m hardwire for snow. My parents didn’t know what to make of it when I was a child. Then as teenager when I witnessed PD I, well, it cemented in me forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Talking about the main slug and overall precip field. Low closer to coast too. Sorry I was trying to factor in your location. You worrying about more N usually is bad for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Last four runs. Precip shield has shifted W into western NVA and N/W into the NW areas in MD. Went from flurries here to 3-5” in 24hrs on the gfs. Solid work 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just now, nj2va said: TSSN’s computer screen is zoomed way in on Hanover, PA and doesn’t look anywhere else. Dude took a hit of snow weenie bump this morning. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Sorry I was trying to factor in your location. You worrying about more N usually is bad for most of us Wasn’t talking about 50 miles north haha just meant the whole thing keeps backing up to the nw each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 That 4 run loop of the gfs is sweet. Look at the QPF max increasing as well on the east side out towards NJ. In general, slightly slower, more amplified system and some great rates in the main bands. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 12z GFS now has a surface low off the Jersey coast, which allows precip to fill in better. Looks like 0.5" QPF line bumps back from Delaware to the Harford/Cecil County line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Talking about the main slug and overall precip field. Low closer to coast too. Looking a lil bit more like an actual storm there, unless I'm seeing things it looks like a lil bit of a coastal signal there compared to 06z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: TSSN’s computer screen is zoomed way in on Hanover, PA and doesn’t look anywhere else. Hey I don’t use a computer, I use my phone so ha! Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Some personal MBY stats. Biggest December snowfall since 2009 is 3.3", which happened in both 2017 and 2020. Think I got a puncher's chance to top that. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: ?? this is better than 06z for almost everyone here I'll take that for 2000 alex!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Some personal MBY stats. Biggest December snowfall since 2009 is 3.3", which happened in both 2017 and 2020. Think I got a puncher's chance to top that. I honestly don’t remember the last December snow for me outside some snow showers or like 1” or whatever. I was in Westminster before this past year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: ?? this is better than 06z for almost everyone here Weenie run for Baltimore! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Some personal MBY stats. Biggest December snowfall since 2009 is 3.3", which happened in both 2017 and 2020. Think I got a puncher's chance to top that. I think you get 3" of snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Better for the nw crew yes. The difference between yesterday run and today is big nw jump. I told y'all in my post last night it was happening and why. It has been incremental over several runs as guidance has been getting a better handle on the h5 vorticity interactions. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Nice sounding in the band as it starts cranking around 1am in @mappyland 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 I'm a little worried about some models running on the north end of the envelope we've seen, I think at this point the fail case for 95 is temps come in a tad high and a slightly overamped storm screws us with too much rain in the early morning to get much. Fingers crossed we see the GFS or something like it pan out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: I think you get 3" of snow from this. 3" seems like a decent floor right now based guidance. Was thinking more 2-2.5" yesterday. 4" might be a stretch, but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I told y'all in my post last night it was happening and why. It has been incremental over several runs as guidance has been getting a better handle on the h5 vorticity interactions. I expect a new snowy cabin profile pic! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just now, nj2va said: I expect a new snowy cabin profile pic! Yeah I'm a little late changing from my Fall pic aren't I? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 4 minutes ago, baltosquid said: I'm a little worried about some models running on the north end of the envelope we've seen, I think at this point the fail case for 95 is temps come in a tad high and a slightly overamped storm screws us with too much rain in the early morning to get much. Fingers crossed we see the GFS or something like it pan out... Like I posted earlier, I think worst-case scenario would too warm at the start but then heavy snow at 33°. I think 2” is almost guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 I’m thinking it’s time for Lwx to push advisories back west some 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 This is turning into a pretty serious event especially for mid-December. This is the opposite of what we usually see occur. As we get closer the snow amounts keep increasing and the cold shot is looking stronger behind the snow. 3-6 inches followed by wind and teens is quite impressive. Low teens Monday morning then highs only in the 20's and flurries likely. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 RAP 15z is a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Let's goooo clouds. Keep the temps as low as possible. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, T. August said: Like I posted earlier, I think worst-case scenario would too warm at the start but then heavy snow at 33°. I think 2” is almost guaranteed. Looking at the HRRR now, even with temps reaching low/mid 40s for majority of the area, DPs are below freezing, and the 925 freezing line cuts through C MD this afternoon (aka cold air is close above). I don’t think temps will be a major concern - but will lose some at the start in the usual spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: I told y'all in my post last night it was happening and why. It has been incremental over several runs as guidance has been getting a better handle on the h5 vorticity interactions. I feel like it's not a big nw jog. The precipitation area has expanded to include a lot more people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z GFS now has a surface low off the Jersey coast, which allows precip to fill in better. Looks like 0.5" QPF line bumps back from Delaware to the Harford/Cecil County line. Central North Maryland may be entering warning criteria if this trend keeps up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 12z CMC is largely unchanged 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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