12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[mitchnick]

Today’s temp max seem to be playing a bigger part than most modeling indicated before last night.

[mitchnick]

Although it still favors north as last night's 3z run, the 9z run of the Rap would be acceptable to most I think.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Anyone have the latest Rufus (future Nam replacement)?

[Ji]

Euro 6z with its best run yet!

[Ji]

Euro 6z with its best run yet!

[CAPE]

Mount Holly is pretty bullish

For this package, main changes to the forecast were a modest uptick in snowfall, which resulted in an expansion of the winter weather advisory northward and southward. Both expansions are still a little marginal, 2-4 inches along the I-78/I-287 corridors (criteria is 3 here) and 1-3 inches in Sussex County Delaware (criteria is 2 here), but enough confidence is present to bring them into the fold. Across a large central portion of the advisory, areas along and southeast of I-95 in PA, NJ DE and MD, we`re now expecting a wide area of 3-5 inches, and there are some snowier models suggesting a stripe of warning criteria (which is mostly 5 inches in this area, though 6 in central NJ) could occur. Not quite sold on that yet given potential for lost QPF from the transition from rain to snow, but its definitely on our minds for potential changes. For now however, kept advisory level forecast across this region, though high-end for sure.

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Kuchie

[mitchnick]

Euro looking a lot like Rap and Hrrr, but with its typical drier solution. 

[WxUSAF]

LWX probably weighing watches or warnings for Cecil and Harford?

[aldie 22]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Nail biter until the end with this one for us

[Ji]

Nail biter until the end with this one for us

I’ll be happy with 1 the way this has oscillated for us

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I’ll be happy with 1 the way this has oscillated for us

It's literally gone from being able to see the cloud deck to our east to a few flurries to 1-2" and back. Almost game time so buckle up buttercup

[DDweatherman]

Yeah the 6z euro getting the 2” to my yard is an accomplishment for sure. My hopes were solely resting on the high resolution (and also low performing at times) models. 

[H2O]

Still expecting 1” only. Boom is 2, bust is flizzard 

[mitchnick]

Eps fwiw

[Solution Man]

Hoping for a few mangled flurries 

[TSSN+]

7 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

If we get 5” of snow, I’ll streak around my apt complex. 

Euro putting me on notice

[WxUSAF]

I’m surprised Mt Holly hasn’t upgraded to warnings. They have 4-6” for a lot of their area.

[CAPE]

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m surprised Mt Holly hasn’t upgraded to warnings. They have 4-6” for a lot of their area.

I mean besides the gfs most models show higher amounts than what nws has. Probably should have advisories back to like Frederick county now. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m surprised Mt Holly hasn’t upgraded to warnings. They have 4-6” for a lot of their area.

I have a feeling they will upgrade to warnings for the upper MD eastern shore, N DE, and a chunk of NJ with the afternoon package.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I have a feeling they will upgrade to warnings for the upper MD eastern shore, N DE, and a chunk of NJ with the afternoon package.

Yeah I think that’ll make sense

[Scraff]

Morning peeps! So how much trust do we have in the 6z RGEM. Wow!

[Mrs.J]

I am seeing conflicting start times. It is the oldest Ms J’s birthday today and we are headed into DC this evening for dinner. Guess we will have to watch driving home. 

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Morning peeps! So how much trust do we have in the 6z RGEM. Wow!

About as much as you posting the national map and trusting that’s the closest look we can get! 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The 6Z reggie is a shellacking.  I’ve been burned so many times believing that model lol but I’m gonna do it again. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Uh:

 

 

[Scraff]

12 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

About as much as you posting the national map and trusting that’s the closest look we can get! 

I was too lazy to zoom in. Looks like you are too. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Uh:

 

 

Where is Burg?

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I was too lazy to zoom in. Looks like you are too. 

Well I had already seen the zoomed maps, so I knew it was a nice run for many haha