mitchnick Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Today’s temp max seem to be playing a bigger part than most modeling indicated before last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Although it still favors north as last night's 3z run, the 9z run of the Rap would be acceptable to most I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Anyone have the latest Rufus (future Nam replacement)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Euro 6z with its best run yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Euro 6z with its best run yet! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Mount Holly is pretty bullish For this package, main changes to the forecast were a modest uptick in snowfall, which resulted in an expansion of the winter weather advisory northward and southward. Both expansions are still a little marginal, 2-4 inches along the I-78/I-287 corridors (criteria is 3 here) and 1-3 inches in Sussex County Delaware (criteria is 2 here), but enough confidence is present to bring them into the fold. Across a large central portion of the advisory, areas along and southeast of I-95 in PA, NJ DE and MD, we`re now expecting a wide area of 3-5 inches, and there are some snowier models suggesting a stripe of warning criteria (which is mostly 5 inches in this area, though 6 in central NJ) could occur. Not quite sold on that yet given potential for lost QPF from the transition from rain to snow, but its definitely on our minds for potential changes. For now however, kept advisory level forecast across this region, though high-end for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 10 minutes ago, Ji said: Kuchie 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Euro looking a lot like Rap and Hrrr, but with its typical drier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 LWX probably weighing watches or warnings for Cecil and Harford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Nail biter until the end with this one for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Nail biter until the end with this one for usI’ll be happy with 1 the way this has oscillated for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, Ji said: I’ll be happy with 1 the way this has oscillated for us It's literally gone from being able to see the cloud deck to our east to a few flurries to 1-2" and back. Almost game time so buckle up buttercup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Yeah the 6z euro getting the 2” to my yard is an accomplishment for sure. My hopes were solely resting on the high resolution (and also low performing at times) models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Still expecting 1” only. Boom is 2, bust is flizzard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Eps fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Hoping for a few mangled flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 7 hours ago, TSSN+ said: If we get 5” of snow, I’ll streak around my apt complex. Euro putting me on notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 I’m surprised Mt Holly hasn’t upgraded to warnings. They have 4-6” for a lot of their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I’m surprised Mt Holly hasn’t upgraded to warnings. They have 4-6” for a lot of their area. I mean besides the gfs most models show higher amounts than what nws has. Probably should have advisories back to like Frederick county now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m surprised Mt Holly hasn’t upgraded to warnings. They have 4-6” for a lot of their area. I have a feeling they will upgrade to warnings for the upper MD eastern shore, N DE, and a chunk of NJ with the afternoon package. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I have a feeling they will upgrade to warnings for the upper MD eastern shore, N DE, and a chunk of NJ with the afternoon package. Yeah I think that’ll make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Morning peeps! So how much trust do we have in the 6z RGEM. Wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 I am seeing conflicting start times. It is the oldest Ms J’s birthday today and we are headed into DC this evening for dinner. Guess we will have to watch driving home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Morning peeps! So how much trust do we have in the 6z RGEM. Wow! About as much as you posting the national map and trusting that’s the closest look we can get! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 The 6Z reggie is a shellacking. I’ve been burned so many times believing that model lol but I’m gonna do it again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Uh: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 12 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: About as much as you posting the national map and trusting that’s the closest look we can get! I was too lazy to zoom in. Looks like you are too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Uh: Where is Burg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: I was too lazy to zoom in. Looks like you are too. Well I had already seen the zoomed maps, so I knew it was a nice run for many haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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