12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[NorthArlington101]

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

RGEM holds 

[T. August]

Icon is worse - mainly due to it being warm at the sfc. That unfortunately seems to be the trend across guidance. Temps at onset aren’t cooling quick enough.

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The LWX AFD effectively highlights the strong dynamics at work. It would not surprise me to see someone between Baltimore and Philly/S Jersey get half a foot of snow from this.

Hasn't that area been constantly shafted the last several years even though we had good snows the last couple of winters? I'm rooting hard for you folks up there!

[Paleocene]

I hope the broader Baltimore crew hits on this one. 4 plus inches. They're due

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Hasn't that area been constantly shafted the last several years even though we had good snows the last couple of winters? I'm rooting hard for you folks up there!

Yeah it has been a historical shaft to say the least! Would be so good to get this one

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Hasn't that area been constantly shafted the last several years even though we had good snows the last couple of winters? I'm rooting hard for you folks up there!

Yes. We've had it bad in this subforum, but the eastern shore and south jersey has effectively been on weenie suicide warning for almost a decade.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The RGEM would certainly make more people happy, but it doesnt really fit the specific features driving this event- it simply looks like the more impressive precip(snow) will fall in a relatively localized area. Hard to envision 4" in Frederick to N central Carroll Co AND 4-5" from  N DE to Philly into in SNJ. 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS a teeny bit more NE but really just noise. Still fine around DC. Best stuff definitely NE MD plummeled

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS a teeny bit more NE but really just noise. Still fine around DC. Best stuff definitely NE MD plummeled

Ya spreads more NW. finally in some accumulation on the gfs here. Keep it coming. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS a teeny bit more NE but really just noise. Still fine around DC. Best stuff definitely NE MD plummeled

Seems the "death band" is a bit earlier... now more around 09z 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ya spreads more NW. finally in some accumulation on the gfs here. Keep it coming. 

[yoda]

I'll take my 1-2" and call it a day from the 18z GFS 

[Winter Wizard]

16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Hasn't that area been constantly shafted the last several years even though we had good snows the last couple of winters? I'm rooting hard for you folks up there!

For reference my hometown of Wilmington, DE hasn’t seen a 6” snowfall since March 2018 while I’m pretty sure almost everyone else on this forum and northward has. Unfathomably bad luck. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Maybe I’ll eek out that inch after all. 

[T. August]

Gfs is nice man. I think the spot to be for this one is Wilmington to south Jersey.

[Eskimo Joe]

Based off the 12z Euro and 18z GFS, it would not surprise me to see Mt. Holly hoist a watch for their zones on Maryland's eastern shore into Delaware and S. Jersey.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The thing with this event is it’s really quick hitting, a few hours of snow.  We’re gonna need it to not be 35 degrees at the onset because by the time it cools it’ll be over. 

[WxUSAF]

Hoco already brined roads 

[stormy]

This is a long shot for D.C................  But I wish everyone all the best of their wishes.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The thing with this event is it’s really quick hitting, a few hours of snow.  We’re gonna need it to not be 35 degrees at the onset because by the time it cools it’ll be over. 

If this happens it’s high rates and crashing temperatures in the middle of the night. It’s not my concern maybe outside of right in the middle of Downtown DC (where I’m at lol)

[Snowman.]

This one isn’t meant for us in Loudoun. Rooting for y’all in the 95 corridor.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Based off the 12z Euro and 18z GFS, it would not surprise me to see Mt. Holly hoist a watch for their zones on Maryland's eastern shore into Delaware and S. Jersey.

Very upper ES, N DE into interior SNJ maybe. Marginal tho. Would probably just go to a warning

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Hoco already brined roads 

Same here. Did it for the last minor event too.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The LWX AFD effectively highlights the strong dynamics at work. It would not surprise me to see someone between Baltimore and Philly/S Jersey get half a foot of snow from this.

Impressive afd! 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS a teeny bit more NE but really just noise. Still fine around DC. Best stuff definitely NE MD plummeled

Still got 36 hours...NAM went more NE as did the Icon...gonna watch to see if that trend continues at 0z

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Impressive afd! 

Yes it is. It's a real shame this event doesn't have even another 0.1" - 0.25" liquid to work with. We're really on the cusp of a respectable event here.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Still got 36 hours...NAM went more NE as did the Icon...gonna watch to see if that trend continues at 0z

Oh trust me I’m very concerned about it. I’d be less concerned if I was you just based on locations but we both could get mega screwed here. 
 

What’s funny is if things hold we’ll just be waiting for that band to form and praying for our nowcasting. Can’t really even watch it come in. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Is this ant different from other clippers? Are we just lucky in the positioning?  

[CAPE]

Latest blend. The 4" over my yard is from some of the CAMs, like the FV3. Not buying that. All other guidance indicates 2-3.

[WhiteoutMD]

Hoco already brined roads 

Same with AA county


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