12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[bncho]

NAM is very good. Not as good as 6z, but if I get 2" I'd be ecstatic.

[adelphi_sky]

40 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

12z hrrr

 

Amazing that almost the entire state of Ohio will see snow in that panel. 

[hstorm]

12 minutes ago, Interstate said:

If only the Mountains were not there.

Getting rid of the mountains seems extreme.  They are pretty.  And CAD is nice.  Better idea is just to make them retractable.  Lower them into the ground when a storm is coming.  Lift them back up after we get our 3 feet of beautiful powder.  LFG team.  We can figure out how to do this.  It's just basic physics (and perhaps a little geology).

[NorthArlington101]

hi-res FV3/GFS sends the band even further south. Should probably wisen up and just assume we won't know til it happens like our best people have said instead of living and dying by each run. Goalposts still fairly wide

[grhqofb5]

22 minutes ago, Interstate said:

If only the Mountains were not there.

I know. That John Denver is really full of **** man.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

hi-res FV3/GFS sends the band even further south. Should probably wisen up and just assume we won't know til it happens like our best people have said instead of living and dying by each run. Goalposts still fairly wide

They salted the heck out the roads in Westminster. Probably for clouds 

[Pityflakes]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

hi-res FV3/GFS sends the band even further south. Should probably wisen up and just assume we won't know til it happens like our best people have said instead of living and dying by each run. Goalposts still fairly wide

 

We'll be nowcasting this one till the bitter end.  

[Interstate]

7 minutes ago, Pityflakes said:

We'll be nowcasting this one till the bitter end.  

Well where ever the first bands sets up... looks to be where it stays.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

hi-res FV3/GFS sends the band even further south. Should probably wisen up and just assume we won't know til it happens like our best people have said instead of living and dying by each run. Goalposts still fairly wide

This event is going to be driven by what happens in the upper levels, not so much where the weak low forms and tracks. Our region gets underneath the right rear entrance region of a strong jet streak for a time- this area is favorable for strong lift, and is why the heavier stripe of precip essentially forms in place. Question is exactly where that feature will be located, which varies slightly among the guidance and run to run. It will be a small scale event, so relatively few will be happy with the result.

 

 

[WxUSAF]

RGEM is as close as we get to the”everyone wins” scenario 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM is as close as we get to the”everyone wins” scenario 

Indeed it does. Previous rgem runs had almost nothing. That said, you’re in a much better position than I am for this one. 

[BlizzardNole]

39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

hi-res FV3/GFS sends the band even further south. Should probably wisen up and just assume we won't know til it happens like our best people have said instead of living and dying by each run. Goalposts still fairly wide

This run fits our new climo with the favored S&E suburbs.  My Calvert folks got like 2.5 times as much snow as me last winter and I expect that to continue.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM is as close as we get to the”everyone wins” scenario 

Where do I sign for that.

Unfortunately it's the only model really showing much for Frederick/ Hagerstown 

[yoda]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM is as close as we get to the”everyone wins” scenario 

I'd take that and run.

[yoda]

I think many of us would take the 06z UKIE too

 

[dailylurker]

Maps?

Rgem 

UKIE

[yoda]

Just now, dailylurker said:

Maps?

Rgem 

UKIE

I just posted 06z ukie right above yours

[yoda]

Closest I can get on PW with 12z RGEM 

 

[Kay]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Closest I can get on PW with 12z RGEM 

 

Middle finger for Frederick Co, but of joy

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Closest I can get on PW with 12z RGEM 

 

Zoomed in from Warner Brothers

[NorthArlington101]

GFS not a "make everyone happy" run but it did get wetter and expand it's band a bit. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS not a "make everyone happy" run but it did get wetter and expand it's band a bit. 

Expand a bit more and give me at least 1” up here and I’m fine with it. 

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS not a "make everyone happy" run but it did get wetter and expand it's band a bit. 

 

I want that 0.3 contour over my house please.  

[WxUSAF]

36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM is as close as we get to the”everyone wins” scenario 

I’d chug maple syrup for the Herpderp 

[aldie 22]

I'm pretty much done with this storm

[adelphi_sky]

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Closest I can get on PW with 12z RGEM 

 

That's an I-95 special right there. Even Boston gets in on the fun this time.

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d chug maple syrup for the Herpderp 

 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d chug maple syrup for the Herpderp 

 

[yoda]

12z CMC... gimme

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, yoda said:

12z CMC... gimme

Pretty much the Rgem solution