Moderate snowfall 12/14/2025 WWA up for most of the area

[Bxstormwatcher360]

6z gfs also improved, bumped up the snow totals a bit.nam also..

[Yanksfan]

Good to see the 6z models improved over the 00z runs. 3-5” is a good call right now. One more bump north and we will be in warning criteria snowfall.

[EasternLI]

Soundings aren't looking half bad... When the lift comes through it's smack in the DGZ. Should see a pretty good shot of snow growth with this. Not really seeing any dry layers to eat it up. That's on the nam. If the RRFS were to verify, would put my area right near average snow for the entire month of December. Something that hasn't happened here since winter 20-21.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Good to see the 6z models improved over the 00z runs. 3-5” is a good call right now. One more bump north and we will be in warning criteria snowfall.

Euro also

[MJO812]

6z aifs bumped north 

[MJO812]

RRFS A

[MJO812]

John Marshall

[MJO812]

6z eps bumped up snow amounts from 0z

[brooklynwx99]

definitely seeing a solid trend towards more buckling of the trough, leading to a bump north with precip. i'm thinking that NYC's looking at 2-4"... might honestly be more like 3-6" at this rate. we'll see if these trends persist. if so, we're looking at more of the latter range

[SnoSki14]

Definitely a high end advisory event looking more likely but only local spots hit warning criteria. 

[psv88]

New WWA for Suffolk for 3-5”. Nassau west still 2-4”

[Yanksfan]

Channel 7 (accu-weather) not buying the more amped trends as of yet. Still calling for 1-3 with 3+ at the shoreline.

[weathermedic]

11 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Channel 7 (accu-weather) not buying the more amped trends as of yet. Still calling for 1-3 with 3+ at the shoreline.

They are also still mentioning it starts off as rain in the city

[Mr. T.]

HRRR is way amped. Looking even better now.

[weathermedic]

OKX AM AFD:

 

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* 1 to 4 inches of snow are expected across the area tonight into
  Sunday morning, with up to 5 inches in eastern Long Island.

* Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded slightly west and
  north to include all coastal zones from 10pm tonight through 1pm
  Sunday.

* Windy and cold Sunday night into Monday morning with wind chills
  below zero in some areas.

A strong closed h5 low dives SE through the Great lakes tonight.
Associated positively tilted trough helps send a cold front through
the area tonight. An area of low pressure forms along the front to
our south in response. Because of the positive tilt, the low will be
progressive and not really strengthen more rapidly until it is well
off to our east. The precip shield with this system is however still
expected well north of the weak low center and into our area thanks
to synoptic lift courtesy of the right-entrance region of a strong
upper jet streak adding to shortwave lift and the cold front itself.

NBM and WPC liquid equivalent precip are in line with consensus of
deterministic and ensemble model output. While there appears to be
only modest omega in the dendritic snow growth zone, the zone is
large due the magnitude of the cold aloft and is saturated. Upward
motion is still there with the upper divergence and PVA. This, along
with much of snowfall occurring at night and cold/low wet-bulb
zeroes, should help offset the more typical lower liquid to snow
ratios one would expect with surface temperatures close to freezing,
which will be the case for the coastal areas for much of the event.

Generally speaking, precip type starts as rain or a rain/snow mix at
the coast with mainly snow inland this evening before a changeover
to snow everywhere by midnight. Greatest impacts will be from late
evening through at least mid-morning Sunday when the snow will have
an easier time sticking to untreated surfaces. Snow should be
exiting east out of area by around noontime Sunday.

Snow amounts have not changed much from the previous forecasts, but
with more confidence in the totals, Winter Weather Advisories for
tonight into Sunday have expanded to include coastal CT, Southern
Westchester County, and additional parts of NE NJ.

Winds then pick up Sunday night into Monday and will be gusty with
strong cold advection and a tightening pressure gradient. Wind
chills late at night into Monday morning dip to -5 to 10 above, but
are short of Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Highs on Monday will be
averaging only around 30 - well below normal. Winds then diminish
Monday night with wind chills not as cold this time, but still in
the single digits to teens.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Mr. T. said:

HRRR is way amped. Looking even better now.

Yep keeps getting stronger.

[Krs4Lfe]

10 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

They are also still mentioning it starts off as rain in the city

That seems unlikely unless we start off above freezing mark. Some of the more amped model show freezing line running right through NYC and Long Island during the event, so I guess this will be like a pasty snow, not fluffy 

[MJO812]

23 hours ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

I mean what are people really expecting with a very fast progressive flow? 

 

23 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looking more like a whiff at the moment. In the past, these snow bands have set up further north than modeled, but that's when there was a more negative tilt which would allow bands to often move further north than modeled. Can't do that hear due to the fast flow

Enjoy the snow tomorrow 

[donsutherland1]

For reference:

[MJO812]

Nam shifted south with the heavier amounts. Not sure how much I can trust this model. Still decent though.

[North and West]

RGEM held serve or got slightly better I think. 

Add “held serve” to the book.


.

[North and West]

John Marshall

does he make these with Microsoft Paint


.

[jbenedet]

35 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

They are also still mentioning it starts off as rain in the city

I would NOT be using this rationale to go lower. They will lose on that.

Looks good for 99% snow. 

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam shifted south with the heavier amounts. Not sure how much I can trust this model. Still decent though.

It’s a narrow band of frontogenesis. Sinking/subsidence just to the north. Another way to put it is the stronger the band, the worse the subsidence in areas just north of it.
 

Have and have nots right across the sound.

Not an exact forecast here but from a conceptual standpoint it’s a case where commack LI could see 6” and north haven CT, 1.5”.

The modeling likely underdone on the gradient (delta).

[Jersey_Snowhole]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Enjoy the snow tomorrow 

You going to quote the follow up to that when I said NYC is likely to get more

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Up to 20.3° after a morning low of 13.8° before the clouds came in.

Entering day 11 of continuous snow cover, although we're about at 80% coverage now. Pretty amazing from 2.8 inches of sow through the period. Hopefully the bare spots get covered up with another 2-3 inches tonight. Two would be great from this setup, 3 would be a pleasant surprise.

[snywx]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Up to 20.3° after a morning low of 13.8° before the clouds came in.

Entering day 11 of continuous snow cover, although we're about at 80% coverage now. Pretty amazing from 2.8 inches of sow through the period. Hopefully the bare spots get covered up with another 2-3 inches tonight. Two would be great from this setup, 3 would be a pleasant surprise.

It’s been quite a wintry start up here. 5.6” ytd and 1-2” coming tonight. Hopefully NYC/LI can cash in tonight. I’m thinking a solid 3-5” for the coast 

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, Yanksfan said:

Channel 7 (accu-weather) not buying the more amped trends as of yet. Still calling for 1-3 with 3+ at the shoreline.

Yeah, she was more focused on meeting Taylor swift and getting her photo this morning lol

[brooklynwx99]

this looks like more than a minor snowfall for most of the metro, honestly. solid WAA with warning criteria likely even being approached in CNJ and parts of LI

[Tatamy]

57 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That seems unlikely unless we start off above freezing mark. Some of the more amped model show freezing line running right through NYC and Long Island during the event, so I guess this will be like a pasty snow, not fluffy 

Stations right along the south shore of LI have just seen a jump in temperatures to the mid 30s along with a wind shift to the south.  Not sure how this plays into some of the forecasts calling for precipitation starting as rain in immediate coastal areas.