Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

MU is coming unglued on twitter. Love to see it. He's posting his map soon, should be interesting at least to see how low he goes.

[Superstorm]

MU is coming unglued on twitter. Love to see it. He's posting his map soon, should be interesting at least to see how low he goes.

I had a good laugh


.

[WmsptWx]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU is coming unglued on twitter. Love to see it. He's posting his map soon, should be interesting at least to see how low he goes.

That dude has been replying to EVERY met on Twitter who has an opinion on this storm. 

 

Very bad look for the program. If I were a HS Junior, this would be disqualifying.

[NepaJames8602]

Nam dropping 30 burger here in high elevations of Poconos lol!

[GrandmasterB]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU is coming unglued on twitter. Love to see it. He's posting his map soon, should be interesting at least to see how low he goes.

I just trolled him on X. I’m not proud of it but he rubs it in our face when storms miss. 

[WmsptWx]

Just now, GrandmasterB said:

I just trolled him on X. I’m not proud of it but he rubs it in our face when storms miss. 

Ooh I'll join 

[GrandmasterB]

ICON a hair stronger and further west. Low position is very close to the MD coast. 

[DDweatherman]

MU is an absolute noob. If that’s how he is on social media, imagine in real life. No thanks if I’m someone interested in the program…things have changed there

[Porsche]

Don't look at the GFS, not much west of Philly.  Hopefully a hiccup.

[Superstorm]

Don't look at the GFS, not much west of Philly.  Hopefully a hiccup.

I assume that is model MU is going with.


.

[Superstorm]

Don't look at the GFS, not much west of Philly.  Hopefully a hiccup.

Actually an increase from 12Z


.

[GrandmasterB]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Actually an increase from 12Z


.

A hair west and better precip vs. 12Z. All I care about at this point. Same for RGEM.

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU is coming unglued on twitter. Love to see it. He's posting his map soon, should be interesting at least to see how low he goes.

Can you post his Twitter link 

[Mshaffer526]

It's the RAP, but really nice trends especially for LSV. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Often imitated, never duplicated.....the RAP

[Blizzard of 93]

Great exchange here between @MillvilleWx & @DDweatherman

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Damn. MU is lock and step with me. 3-6" for all of us and he doesn't go up in amounts until you get into extreme eastern Chester County. Seems quite confident we'll all be in the subsidence zone.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just realized that WGAL is still calling for just 2-5".

[Yardstickgozinya]

43 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Can you post his Twitter link 

Step one.Try putting an m into your search bar.

Step two. Put a u into the search bar. 

Steps 3 through 9 are basically the same as step one and two .  You want to put your letters in the right order to spell out the word weather. if you make a mistake, don't worry, it just has to be close. 

Step ten is a the real doozy. Next, you wanna press the enter button, but be warned, you will be amazed.

[MAG5035]

I’m gonna throw out a map at some point I think, though I better do it soon since it looks like the first snow moves into the central counties by 12-2am. Might wait to see some early 0z stuff. 

I still consider the bust potential at least moderate in the corridor between I-81 (including Harrisburg metro) and the Laurels. Rates will be crucial with the first half or so of this event occurring during the daytime in that area with the temps near freezing. High res models kind of hint at this with their more elevational look to snow totals in the ridge and valley. On top of all that is that this is the region of central PA most likely to see that inverted trough related band set up somewhere. That feature’s about the only thing the Euro has been modelling consistently with this system. I think where that sits the longest will put down a narrow stripe of 8-12” within what I currently think will be a general 4-7” for this corridor. 

Still definitely some bust potential for York/Lancaster counties as well in terms of the top end potential. Obviously short term/high res guidance like the HRRR and NAM throttle this part of the Sus Valley, while the globals do not. GFS has tightened a bit, only clipping the far end of Lancaster with double digits. I’m weighing a bit more toward high res stuff at this point but this is where how far inside that coastal low can get becomes very important. 

 

[Ruin]

43 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just realized that WGAL is still calling for just 2-5".

Abc was calling 1 to 3 until 5 today now 4 to 8

[Ruin]

36 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Step one.Try putting an m into your search bar.

Step two. Put a u into the search bar. 

Steps 3 through 9 are basically the same as step one and two .  You want to put your letters in the right order to spell out the word weather. if you make a mistake, don't worry, it just has to be close. 

Step ten is a the real doozy. Next, you wanna press the enter button, but be warned, you will be amazed.

I need a name to do that not just mu

[mahantango#1]

All this talk of snow. My NWS forecast has not changed even with the WSW it's still saying 2-4. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

33 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I need a name to do that not just mu

Oh, man, that's because you skip step 3 through 9. Lol If you put the word weather on the end, the twitter feed should be the first thing to pops up. 

https://x.com/muweather

[Yardstickgozinya]

40 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

All this talk of snow. My NWS forecast has not changed even with the WSW it's still saying 2-4. 

Yeah, that's kinda strange. I believe your east of me and  my p&c has 2 to 6 inches total . Nws has also been putting quite an emphasis on their lack of confidence and the possibility of extremely varying accumulations over short distance. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Holy SREFs...

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Yeah, that's kinda strange. I believe your east of me and  my p&c has 2 to 6 inches total . Nws has also been putting quite an emphasis on their lack of confidence and the possibility of extremely varying accumulations over short distance. 

I'm located in Northern Dauphin County. I can throw a stone across the creek into Northumberland county. Yea all these forecasts are all over the place.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Holy SREFs...

You ain't kiddin pal....

[Yardstickgozinya]

First off, I wanna put in a little disclaimer and say that @mahantango#1 has absolutely nothing to do with my comments below I don't want readers to get the impression i'm directing my thoughts at him. 

At the end of the day it's pretty obvious to me that nobody knows exactly how this is going to play out.  There's so much potential right now in either direction. It's situations like these that clearly exposures the forum's actual trolls. Now that said, i'm not saying that giving honest analysis the contradicts accumulating snowfall is trolling . It's obviously a lot more complex than that, but we have a whole bunch of guys here,taking advantage of that complexity, and it's situations like this that make those people stick out amongst the crowd. 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

0z here we come.  Who's with me!?