Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

MU is coming unglued on twitter. Love to see it. He's posting his map soon, should be interesting at least to see how low he goes.

[Superstorm]

MU is coming unglued on twitter. Love to see it. He's posting his map soon, should be interesting at least to see how low he goes.

I had a good laugh


.

[WmsptWx]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU is coming unglued on twitter. Love to see it. He's posting his map soon, should be interesting at least to see how low he goes.

That dude has been replying to EVERY met on Twitter who has an opinion on this storm. 

 

Very bad look for the program. If I were a HS Junior, this would be disqualifying.

[NepaJames8602]

Nam dropping 30 burger here in high elevations of Poconos lol!

[GrandmasterB]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU is coming unglued on twitter. Love to see it. He's posting his map soon, should be interesting at least to see how low he goes.

I just trolled him on X. I’m not proud of it but he rubs it in our face when storms miss. 

[WmsptWx]

Just now, GrandmasterB said:

I just trolled him on X. I’m not proud of it but he rubs it in our face when storms miss. 

Ooh I'll join 

[GrandmasterB]

ICON a hair stronger and further west. Low position is very close to the MD coast. 

[DDweatherman]

MU is an absolute noob. If that’s how he is on social media, imagine in real life. No thanks if I’m someone interested in the program…things have changed there

[Porsche]

Don't look at the GFS, not much west of Philly.  Hopefully a hiccup.

[Superstorm]

Don't look at the GFS, not much west of Philly.  Hopefully a hiccup.

I assume that is model MU is going with.


.

[Superstorm]

Don't look at the GFS, not much west of Philly.  Hopefully a hiccup.

Actually an increase from 12Z


.

[GrandmasterB]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Actually an increase from 12Z


.

A hair west and better precip vs. 12Z. All I care about at this point. Same for RGEM.

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU is coming unglued on twitter. Love to see it. He's posting his map soon, should be interesting at least to see how low he goes.

Can you post his Twitter link 

[Mshaffer526]

It's the RAP, but really nice trends especially for LSV. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Often imitated, never duplicated.....the RAP

[Blizzard of 93]

Great exchange here between @MillvilleWx & @DDweatherman

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Damn. MU is lock and step with me. 3-6" for all of us and he doesn't go up in amounts until you get into extreme eastern Chester County. Seems quite confident we'll all be in the subsidence zone.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just realized that WGAL is still calling for just 2-5".

[Yardstickgozinya]

43 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Can you post his Twitter link 

Step one.Try putting an m into your search bar.

Step two. Put a u into the search bar. 

Steps 3 through 9 are basically the same as step one and two .  You want to put your letters in the right order to spell out the word weather. if you make a mistake, don't worry, it just has to be close. 

Step ten is a the real doozy. Next, you wanna press the enter button, but be warned, you will be amazed.

[MAG5035]

I’m gonna throw out a map at some point I think, though I better do it soon since it looks like the first snow moves into the central counties by 12-2am. Might wait to see some early 0z stuff. 

I still consider the bust potential at least moderate in the corridor between I-81 (including Harrisburg metro) and the Laurels. Rates will be crucial with the first half or so of this event occurring during the daytime in that area with the temps near freezing. High res models kind of hint at this with their more elevational look to snow totals in the ridge and valley. On top of all that is that this is the region of central PA most likely to see that inverted trough related band set up somewhere. That feature’s about the only thing the Euro has been modelling consistently with this system. I think where that sits the longest will put down a narrow stripe of 8-12” within what I currently think will be a general 4-7” for this corridor. 

Still definitely some bust potential for York/Lancaster counties as well in terms of the top end potential. Obviously short term/high res guidance like the HRRR and NAM throttle this part of the Sus Valley, while the globals do not. GFS has tightened a bit, only clipping the far end of Lancaster with double digits. I’m weighing a bit more toward high res stuff at this point but this is where how far inside that coastal low can get becomes very important.