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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Jns2183
Jns2183

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it wa

WmsptWx
WmsptWx

Pornhub.com

AllWeather
AllWeather

Ridge axis over Idaho Hudson Bay high 50/50 low in ideal position Decent high latitude blocking Sub-trop disturbance Game on. .

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP reissued the Watch early this morning and is going with 5 to 10 inches of snow at this point with winds up to 35 mph.

(yes @canderson this includes downtown Harrisburg…lol)
 

Winter Storm Watch 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
439 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

PAZ057>059-064>066-220000-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Hershey, Harrisburg, Gettysburg,
Pottsville, Lancaster, York, and Lebanon
439 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
  10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph Sunday
  night and Monday.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the
  track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result
  in higher snowfall amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

Well sure but the watch covers all of Lancaster County - where they’ll get on the eastern side likely substantially more snow than MDT. The sharp west gradient isn’t our friend on this one methinks.  

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The GFS is still the furthest NW of any guidance, tucking the low back nearly ashore in Ocean City, MD before the fade to the benchmark…which is even more than the NAM. Unless the new 0z Euro pulls a fast one here in a bit we’re still looking at the same US vs Non-US modelling battle for another run. Things are coming much more in line across the board in favor of the bombing coastal, but Euro/Canadian has been taking this more direct from the Outer Banks to the benchmark with less of a tuck back toward the Delmarva. And that’s the key to both the more excessive totals and also getting any kind of double digit stuff back into any of the LSV. 

looks like your call was a good one. inevitable shift W has ceased.  It's going to be a hell of an event for coastal locals.  Still some fun back here.

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Yardstickgozinya

Yardstickgozinya

Posted
Posted

I'm actually fine with where the storm's at. I would find it much more exciting to watch a tick west on radar real time. Even if we don't get many ticks west on on paper , from this point moving forward, let's not forget the storm itself can tick west, whether the models give it permission or not.  That's exactly what 2016 did. 

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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
Posted
 
 
 
 
 
 
All modeling has the upper low placement in nearly the exact same location 1 am Mon. Every single model shown below. The question is strength. A old forecaster rule of thump is a a foot of snow for every closed contour.GFS is the only one that does that fast enuf for 6-12 in DCA.
 
ImageImageImageImage
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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
Posted
I do not believe there will be any shifting east of the modeling.The storm track is LOCKED IN.The only remaining question is how quickly the upper low strengthens. This impacts the DCA to PHL to eastern MD zone. Sending maps to explain.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
X live this later this AM. MY THOUGHTS.3-6 DCA, BWI into eastern PA & NW NJ.6-12 from PHL-central NJ.12" in NYC. 12-18 along the Jersey shore into central Long Island. 1-2 feet from eastern LI to Boston including the Cape Cop. Around a foot in PVD, 6-12 HFD. 6-12 eastern MD/DE
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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
Posted
Good ole SS:
 
 
⚠️ READ THE ENTIRE UPDATE!!!
*THIS COULD BE A BLIZZARD *OR*
THIS MAY ONLY BE A FEW INCHES.
***WE DON’T KNOW JUST YET***
————————————————-
**STORM MODE ACTIVATED**
————————————————-
**THIS FORECAST COULD EASILY CHANGE TODAY** STAY TUNED!!!
————————————————-
**WE SIMPLY DON’T KNOW THE TRACK DUE TO MODEL SPREAD!
————————————————-
PREPARE FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST!
————————————————-
STARTING: SUNDAY DAYBREAK
ENDING: MONDAY DAYBREAK
(HEAVIEST SNOW LATE SUNDAY)
————————————————-
WHAT: VERY HEAVY WET SNOW!
AMOUNTS: 6”-30” Depending on your location and the track of storm.
Areas along 83 may see close to a FOOT while areas WEST of 83 may only see 4-8”. Areas near I-95 may see 2-3 FEET (Maybe More). Highest amounts of 2-3 Feet will likely be near the coast! If the storm shifts east heavy snow will move out over the ocean. If it shifts west heavy snow will move over Central Pennsylvania. There are so many variables and we do not know.
—————————————————-
WE BELIEVE MANY PEOPLE FROM 83 AND POINTS EAST will “LIKELY” see significant WET snow!
HOWEVER that’s NOT a guarantee!
**Models are all over the place!!!**
Look at these models and you will understand. THERE IS A HUGE SPREAD in totals and not much model agreement. There’s ALSO TIME today for TRACK changes to happen.
We are monitoring all the data that comes in and we’ll get it out to you as fast as possible. We are now in storm mode and we will not answer many questions, but we will get the info out as fast as we can. Please understand this is an extremely difficult forecast. There is no way in this world for anyone to know which way this storm could track or wheel track. Just now that this is an extremely powerful and dangerous storm and a track west or east will change this forecast drastically. Someone will get 24 feet of snow!-
This storm is so big and powerful it will wobble and just a slight wobble WEST will SHIFT huge totals over SCPA. YES THAT IS A POSSIBILITY!!! BUT, we don’t know and likely WONT KNOW until the event is happening!!!
WE STRONGLY SUGGEST GETTING SOME GROCERIES AND SUPPLIES IF YOU ARE NEAR 83 & POINTS EAST!!
You may not need them but time is running out and it’s better to be prepared and not need it !!!
We are monitoring all the data that comes in and we’ll get it out to you as fast as possible. We are now in storm mode and we will not answer many questions, but we will get the info out as fast as we can. Please understand this is an extremely difficult forecast. There is no way in this world for anyone to know which way this storm could track or wheel track. Just now that this is an extremely powerful and dangerous storm and a track west or east will change this forecast drastically. Someone will get 2-4 feet of snow! BUT WHERE????
Even if you only get 6 inches of snow, it’s going to be a very heavy wet snow and extremely hard to shovel. Just imagine if the storm shifts and you get 12 to 20 inches of snow? With this being a very heavy snow that changes things significantly. Please be prepared for that and even possible power outages. There are lots of possibilities with this storm and we just do not know where exactly things will be the worst. We are monitoring and we will do our best to sort through the data, but it may be a storm that we have to just watch and report on in real time.
Stay Tuned For More Updates!
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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I saw you pull that comment @pasnownut.  I was going to cheer you on. I believe in you ! i'm here to help you overachieve. 

yeah it was a good one, but thought I should PG it a bit.  Not sure if that weathergal is real or not, but wowwy.  

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

IMG_5256.png?ex=699af56d&is=6999a3ed&hm=

IMG_5255.png?ex=699af56d&is=6999a3ed&hm=

wow that is just a beaut.  Now how do we get that to verify??

Thats a forum pleaser right there.  I still question the hard NW cutoff w/o 1040hp pressin from the north, and am hoping for the NW qpf shield to expand as we get closer.  Been a gut feeling based on SLP being a bomb with little resistance from the NW.  Thats why trough axis hase been what I'm keying on.  more neg she goes, more west qpf expands.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 33 with .01" of rain.  At this point, I'd just set the Over/Under at 6" for Lanc and call it a day.  @ChescoWx looks to be in a great spot for this but man that coastal cutoff between him and, say @Jns2183, could be brutal.

Still feel like I am on the edge of the truly heavy snows....

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