Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Voyager]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam was further west but it couldn't climb 

It tried, but then moved east-northeast off of Virginia Beach.

[Jns2183]

And then the 6z NAM totally shuts out the eastern half of PA. No snow, no precipitation. Absolutely nothing north of the M/D line.

This afternoon the nam barely had the low to the NC/GA border

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[Jns2183]

And then the 6z NAM totally shuts out the eastern half of PA. No snow, no precipitation. Absolutely nothing north of the M/D line.

Id follow my rule with this one of not taking any model and forecast seriously till 5pm Saturday

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[Yardstickgozinya]

There hasn't been any lightning strikes detected for quite a while, but it looks like a lot of the sub is getting some decent rain atm.

[Voyager]

Just now, Jns2183 said:

Id follow my rule with this one of not taking any model and forecast seriously till 5pm Saturday

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Probably not a bad idea...

I've got to say, I've always been a go big or go home snow person. This time even moreso. We're down to barely a 2" snowpack, and the rain we had Wednesday afternoon/evening washed most of the salt residue off the roads. At this point, if we can't get 8-12+, then I'd prefer the NAM's no snow showing.

[Jns2183]

Probably not a bad idea...
I've got to say, I've always been a go big or go home snow person. This time even moreso. We're down to barely a 2" snowpack, and the rain we had Wednesday afternoon/evening washed most of the salt residue off the roads. At this point, if we can't get 8-12+, then I'd prefer the NAM's no snow showing.

I'm almost at a point with just how arrogant some local and national meteorologist have become combined with endless whining about models where Im praying for a once in a generation bust either way, just so it pushes out some of these people due to ridicule, installs some humility, and forces people to use model runs like a tool instead of like heroin.

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[TheDreamTraveler]

Absolutely pouring out right now. Haven't seen a big blob of heavy rain like that in a while

[Yardstickgozinya]

15 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm almost at a point with just how arrogant some local and national meteorologist have become combined with endless whining about models where Im praying for a once in a generation bust either way, just so it pushes out some of these people due to ridicule, installs some humility, and forces people to use model runs like a tool instead of like heroin.

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  I could have the wrong person here, but I believe it was @anotherman that brought up the Megalopolitan Blizzard of 1983 last week. I'm certainly not saying that it will, but given what the gfs has shown at times and the slightly cooler column ,I feel that this one has more of a legitimate chance, then last week, to bust towards something like that. I could definitely live with that .

[Yardstickgozinya]

Heavy rain here flash of lightning.

[Yardstickgozinya]

I love seeing the volatility in the atmosphere in Pa. the last two nights. Makes me more hopeful maybe we can bust big . 

[Jns2183]

Absolutely pouring out right now. Haven't seen a big blob of heavy rain like that in a while

God do we need it. March, April, May average 11" and we need a good 21". The top ever for those 3 months was 20.79" in 2011. I'd kill for a good 60"+ year again. Praying we finally get a big tropical system up here for first time in a while.

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[Jns2183]

  I could have the wrong person here, but I believe it was [mention=1189]anotherman[/mention] that brought up the Megalopolitan Blizzard of 1983 last week. I'm certainly not saying that it will, but given what the gfs has shown at times and the slightly cooler column ,I feel that this one has more of a legitimate chance, then last week, to bust towards something like that. I could definitely live with that .

I want something that is the equivalent of launching an m80 into a giant African killer bee nest. It would be good for the profession.

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[Yardstickgozinya]

16 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I love seeing the volatility in the atmosphere in Pa. the last two nights. Makes me more hopeful maybe we can bust big . 

@Jns2183 Yardstick short range regime sequencing . Thanks for that too by the way, It was a good listen. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

This mornings write up from Nws forcast discussion on this weekend’s winter potential.  

KEY MESSAGE 3: Reminder that it`s still winter with potential for
accumulating snow Sunday followed by a brief cold spell with
brisk winds Monday and Tuesday.

Main chance for snow on Sunday would be more from the inverted
trough, still a ways out to pinpoint location and amts of snow
with such a feature. Upper level low dynamics might be the key
for our area as well.

Earlier discussion below.

There remains a strong potential for a low pressure system off
the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday intensifying into a nor`easter by
Monday. However, the track of the low remains uncertain with
plenty of variability in the model guidance. The ECMWF and the
UKMET remain farther south and offshore as it exits the coast,
whereas the GFS is closest and has the greatest impacts to the
Mid-Atlantic region. This is a low confidence forecast at this
time with northern and southern stream phasing differences
still to be resolved. It seems that even with a more suppressed
and eastward track, the associated upper trough and inverted
trough axis may be able to provide sufficient forcing/lift to
produce a broad area of accumulating snow. Confidence in
accumulating snowfall continues to increase, but significant
details remain TBD as it relates to the potential for
significant snowfall.

Confidence is much higher in a reality check back to winter
temperatures as a brisk northerly wind behind the departing
nor`reaster directs a much colder Canadian airmass back into the
region. Max temps on Monday and Tuesday will be 5 to 15 degrees
below the historical average. The cold spell won`t last long
with a moderating trend commencing through midweek as low level
winds turn more southwesterly.

Todays full discussion below 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Jns2183]

This mornings write up from Nws forcast discussion on this weekend’s winter potential.  

KEY MESSAGE 3: Reminder that it`s still winter with potential foraccumulating snow Sunday followed by a brief cold spell withbrisk winds Monday and Tuesday.Main chance for snow on Sunday would be more from the invertedtrough, still a ways out to pinpoint location and amts of snowwith such a feature. Upper level low dynamics might be the keyfor our area as well.Earlier discussion below.There remains a strong potential for a low pressure system offthe Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday intensifying into a nor`easter byMonday. However, the track of the low remains uncertain withplenty of variability in the model guidance. The ECMWF and theUKMET remain farther south and offshore as it exits the coast,whereas the GFS is closest and has the greatest impacts to theMid-Atlantic region. This is a low confidence forecast at thistime with northern and southern stream phasing differencesstill to be resolved. It seems that even with a more suppressedand eastward track, the associated upper trough and invertedtrough axis may be able to provide sufficient forcing/lift toproduce a broad area of accumulating snow. Confidence inaccumulating snowfall continues to increase, but significantdetails remain TBD as it relates to the potential forsignificant snowfall.Confidence is much higher in a reality check back to wintertemperatures as a brisk northerly wind behind the departingnor`reaster directs a much colder Canadian airmass back into theregion. Max temps on Monday and Tuesday will be 5 to 15 degreesbelow the historical average. The cold spell won`t last longwith a moderating trend commencing through midweek as low levelwinds turn more southwesterly.

Todays full discussion below 
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Check your messages

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[mahantango#1]

[AccuChris]

The latest 9z SREF controls of the NMB and ARW are massive changes for the 3z prior run. Wow



.

[anotherman]

I saw that and sluffed them off because they are the SREF. But that is a huge change.

[mahantango#1]

So is it still early for a final outcome of this storm, were within about 50 or so hours of the storm?

[GrandmasterB]

The GFS solution went from weenie wishcasting to having the NAM and SREFS on its side plus the AI’s are just a little too east with the coastal (but have trended west). Euro and UKIE with no coastal storm impact. 
We pretty much get another day of constant model watching one way or the other!

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

So is it still early for a final outcome of this storm, were within about 50 or so hours of the storm?

Absolutely too early to call this one. Wide model discrepancy especially between the GFS & Euro.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GFS shows another tucked low just off of OCMD, bringing heavy snow potential to the LSV again this run.

[MAG5035]

30 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

It looks like they are factoring the NBM in pretty heavily into their forecast, which is probably the best move right now.

That’s a comparison of the regular NBM and the v5 NBM which is the parallel one that is eventually going to be the regular operational NBM this spring. The v5 version doesn’t incorporate SREF due to its impending retirement I believe at the end of the year. Actually I’ll just show the relevent slide from NOAA’s presentation on the v5 as to the differences in it and how the blend is made up. 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/7858320/NBMv5.0+Overview+for+Evaluation.pdf

[Superstorm]

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

It looks like they are factoring the NBM in pretty heavily into their forecast, which is probably the best move right now.

That’s a comparison of the regular NBM and the v5 NBM which is the parallel one that is eventually going to be the regular operational NBM this spring. The v5 version doesn’t incorporate SREF due to its impending retirement I believe at the end of the year. Actually I’ll just show the relevent slide from NOAA’s presentation on the v5 as to the differences in it and how the blend is made up. 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/7858320/NBMv5.0+Overview+for+Evaluation.pdf

Now this is solid information!

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro still brings most of its snow to us from the inverted trough.

It still has Warning level snow for the LSV this run.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GEFS is very impressive for this range. Lots of west leaning ensemble members.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z EPS is decent, with several west leaning ensemble members that could provide upside snow potential.

The mean still brings 4 inches to the LSV this run.

[Blizzard of 93]

Another fascinating day of tracking !

[ChescoWx]

We have already picked up 0.57" of much needed rain here in EN since last evening. We could see another 0.10" to 0.25" more this morning before it tapers off this afternoon. We still have on average 2 inches of snow on the ground and today will be our 35th consecutive day with snow cover. This is now the 10th longest stretch and 13th longest overall. We warm tomorrow into the upper 40's which may get rid of the last of the snow cover. Our well-advertised potential 14th winter event of the season looks to arrive on Sunday morning. How much remains to be seen but chances of a plowable event have increased for much of Chester County.

[pasnownut]

4 hours ago, Voyager said:

And then the 6z NAM totally shuts out the eastern half of PA. No snow, no precipitation. Absolutely nothing north of the M/D line.

NAM at this range often does wonky things.  I'd ignore that -  and not because i dont like what it's showing.  Plenty enough consensus forming that your gettin snow.