Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

7 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z ICON went all in on the weekend system the GFS has been showing on and off


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Das ist sehr gut!

[pasnownut]

42 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z ICON went all in on the weekend system the GFS has been showing on and off


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Just saw it.  If we could get this to deliver as depicted, just give me a few days to enjoy and I'll stop wishing for snow.....

 

Till the next one comes.  36 hr event verbatim. 

[pasnownut]

GFS still has decent event for same time frame.  While I know we are skeptics of much modeling of late, one thing that GFS has done a decent job of in recent years, is seeing an event at 7 days.  While obviously not a lock, it often has the right general idea, and since I like what it's showing in the last few runs.  I'm huggin. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Ukie on board with the Miller B type scenario for Sunday.  We may have another week of tracking ahead fellas.  Buckle up.

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Ukie on board with the Miller B type scenario for Sunday.  We may have another week of tracking ahead fellas.  Buckle up.

Yep.  Just checked pivotal and it has a B w/ nice transfer.  Little scary thermally, but I'd sign.  

 

so, Ukie/GFS/Icon have us snowing Sunday.  Let see how this goes, but yeah definitely something to watch.  

[pasnownut]

also not sure how much time we have left, cause tellies look less than stellar beyond, so yall might wanna get pom poms out for this one.  

 

[CarlislePaWx]

32 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

also not sure how much time we have left, cause tellies look less than stellar beyond, so yall might wanna get pom poms out for this one.  

 

Last night's GFS had all of us well into the sixties at the end of its run on March 4th.  However, temps were all over the place through the run (0 Z).

[AccuChris]

12 Euro Op still not buying next weekends storm but the 12z AI GFS was on board and the 12z Euro AI was not a full hit for us but was very close and much more amped then its Operational suite


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[anotherman]

12 Euro Op still not buying next weekends storm but the 12z AI GFS was on board and the 12z Euro AI was not a full hit for us but was very close and much more amped then its Operational suite


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Not that is matters as much but the ICON and UKIE were massive hits.

[Superstorm]

Ukie on board with the Miller B type scenario for Sunday.  We may have another week of tracking ahead fellas.  Buckle up.

Sure hope so


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[canderson]

A friend of mine in who knows the river well is worried about an ice jam in HBG. 

[MAG5035]

In what has been a pretty good indicator of warmer times ahead for us the last few winters, Mammoth Mountain point and click has 59-93” in the grids from now through Thursday lol. 

I do like the weekend timeframe if we can line something up at the proper time. There looks to be 2-3 different waves this week… Wed, Fri, and then the Sunday system that has occasionally shown up as a snowstorm. The first two waves favor rain with some potential for mix NE. 

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

In what has been a pretty good indicator of warmer times ahead for us the last few winters, Mammoth Mountain point and click has 59-93” in the grids from now through Thursday lol. 

I do like the weekend timeframe if we can line something up at the proper time. There looks to be 2-3 different waves this week… Wed, Fri, and then the Sunday system that has occasionally shown up as a snowstorm. The first two waves favor rain with some potential for mix NE. 

I've been following Mammoth's weather almost daily since my visit a few years ago. They desperately needed this storm, it hasn't snowed of much significance since right around New Year's. That's the thing about out there though - all it takes is a good week or so and they can pile it quickly. Despite the weeks without snow, this storm will put them over 200" for the season. Far short of normal but it's a start. They need to build up the water table now, otherwise fire season later this year might be grim. 

[Superstorm]

Euro AI is a beat down


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[Blizzard of 93]

39 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Euro AI is a beat down


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Yes, indeed, hopefully we reel this one in for Sunday.

[Yardstickgozinya]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, indeed, hopefully we reel this one in for Sunday.

It moves like a tortoise.I like it. If it does the old loopy loop or retrogrades on the next panel, I'll take. 

[AccuChris]

18z Euro AI 10:1 snowmap just for fun


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[Yardstickgozinya]

7 hours ago, pasnownut said:

also not sure how much time we have left, cause tellies look less than stellar beyond, so yall might wanna get pom poms out for this one.  

 

  I'm not disagreeing with you. Maybe my constant search for cold and snow has given me cold bias algorithms. Is there still two trains of thought on this or has there been some type of agreement.  From what I'm gathering the Europeans don't  seem to agree with this but everything i've read, is a few hours to a day old so maybe a lot has changed.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z EPS & 18z AI EPS look great as well for the Sunday chance. Lots of maps are posted in the Mid Atlantic thread for your viewing pleasure.

[Yardstickgozinya]

7 hours ago, pasnownut said:

also not sure how much time we have left, cause tellies look less than stellar beyond, so yall might wanna get pom poms out for this one.  

 

My understanding has been that the p v was to split and send down at least two cold lobes into  central then the eastern US late this month, but the MJO would be somewhat muting, and delaying its effects here on the east coast. Was it a pile of rubbish i've been reading, or still being worked out?