Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU ain't playing around with the wind threat:

NW winds of 20-40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph will buffet the region on Sat. In addition, temps will plunge into the teens Sat morning with wind chills as low as -15°F throughout the day and -20 to -25°F at night. Exposed skin could develop frostbite in just 10-15 minutes. Roadways may be littered with debris from the high winds, as well. Uninsulated/unprotected pipes may freeze or burst, and widespread power outages are also likely. Stock up on extra water, food, blankets, coats, flashlights and other supplies late this week. Make sure you have a backup generator too. In the event of a power outage, the internal temp of your house may drop to unsafe levels in just 12-24 hours. Finally, fill your vehicle's gas tank to prevent fuel lines from freezing.

Geesh, I guess not. I’m probably in the minority here but I’m not really all that impressed with the wind threat if we’re talking strictly from a mph standpoint. Most guidance and that includes the high res stuff like the HRRR that normally ramps up surface winds barely support advisory winds much less anything of the variety that would cause widespread power outages. But I could get on board with a wind advisory for 45-50mph I suppose. Basically a typical wind event in other words, it gusts to 60mph at @canderson’s house in those anyways haha. This event also has a more northerly trajectory to the wind as well being more NW or even NNW.. less of a direct downslope component to enhance wind gusts IMO. 

What I am impressed with is the COMBO of the winds and cold temperatures. Dynamically this will be the coldest shot of the winter to date. The more northerly component to the wind minimizes modification of the airmass source travelling over the Lakes, which already have a good bit of ice with Erie >95% covered.  Non-diurnal “High” temps for Saturday will occur before about 3-4am Sat morning. Sat daytime temps will struggle to get out of the single digits in most of the area. Laurels and some north-central might not crack zero.

You can see how there’s an appendage of non-modified Arctic air that reaches PA. I drew the rough surface wind direction. It mostly goes over the frozen portion of Huron and Erie. 

Saturday morning will probably be the worst for wind chills, though it won’t be good all day. I think most of that extreme cold watch has a good chance of being upgraded to the full blown warning.

Here’s the kind of wind chills the 18z HRRR put out after daybreak Saturday morning. I haven’t really seen those kind of wind chills since the Christmas 2022 cold shot. 

[pasnownut]

6 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1221 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

PAZ019-026>028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-060800-
/O.EXB.KCTP.EC.A.0004.260207T0900Z-260208T1500Z/
Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Sunbury, Gettysburg, Carlisle, Hershey,
Mifflintown, Selinsgrove, Chambersburg, State College, Newport,
Mount Union, Lewisburg, York, Williamsport, Shamokin, Lewistown,
Lebanon, Harrisburg, Pottsville, Danville, Lancaster, Berwick,
McConnellsburg, Bloomsburg, Lock Haven, and Huntingdon
1221 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below possible.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero
  could result in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not
  taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must go outside, dress in layers. Cover exposed skin to
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia...and Nut, you're an idiot for going snowmobiling in this....

Fixed

[Blizzard of 93]

Both the 18z AI Euro & AI GFS have a potential Winter storm chance near President’s Day this run.

[Blizzard of 93]

I just noticed that MDT got down to 2 degrees this morning.

[pasnownut]

5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Both the 18z AI Euro & AI GFS have a potential Winter storm chance near President’s Day this run.

 

 

Overnighters look to have flattened the flow, which makes more sense to me.  While nao and ao are on the rise,both still in - territory next week.  Add to it - pna, a flatter look seems reasonable.  Beyond that...dunno, but next week still doesnt look bigly warm to me. 

Every week we add to this awesome stretch is fine by me.  Spring will be springin soon enough and it'll make the warmth feel gooder.  

Headed north in a few hours.  Have a great weekend all.  Bundle up and enjoy the snow.

 

[pawatch]

15 degrees this morning. Still feels bitter out.

Have a good trip Nut! 

 

[Voyager]

I don't know. I either need a different job, or a different weather forum (probably both) but this is really getting hard to take anymore. And I just need to vent.

And it's not the cold as much as the duration of it. If we'd get a break every couple weeks, I could tolerate it, but as it is, I dread going to a job I generally and genuinely love, because it's so difficult (and hazardous) with the ice buildup, not to mention frozen equipment.

I know that every winter we get one or a couple of true arctic air masses, but it's been relentless this year. Usually at some point we moderate, but not this winter. Normal to slightly below is ok, but this stuff is harsh.

With that, I'm sorry to pee in everyone's Cheerios, but my mental state is precarious right now. I should have stayed in AZ after my mom passed, and let the chips fall where they would as far as the survival of my marriage.

[mahantango#1]

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I don't know. I either need a different job, or a different weather forum (probably both) but this is really getting hard to take anymore. And I just need to vent.

And it's not the cold as much as the duration of it. If we'd get a break every couple weeks, I could tolerate it, but as it is, I dread going to a job I generally and genuinely love, because it's so difficult (and hazardous) with the ice buildup, not to mention frozen equipment.

I know that every winter we get one or a couple of true arctic air masses, but it's been relentless this year. Usually at some point we moderate, but not this winter. Normal to slightly below is ok, but this stuff is harsh.

With that, I'm sorry to pee in everyone's Cheerios, but my mental state is precarious right now. I should have stayed in AZ after my mom passed, and let the chips fall where they would as far as the survival of my marriage.

Hang in there man, Only a month or so to go until Spring.

CTP had this today in their discussion about a little relief next week…
 

KEY MESSAGE 3: Moderating temperatures during the second week of
February

For those looking for a break in the cold pattern, here you go.
Confidence continues to increase that temperatures will moderate
during the second week of February and climb back to seasonal
levels or near the historical average for early to mid February.
This "warmup" puts mixed precipitation on the table with the
next weather system that could arrive Wed/Thu next week. The
guidance has come into better agreement concerning the precip
pattern evolution with best odds around the middle of next
week.

[Blizzard of 93]

 

Here is the AI EPS 72 hour snow from 2/13 am to 2/16 am.

Here is also the 50th percentile map through 2/13 am & through 2/16 am. Very little snow falls before 2/13, so the window for next weekend is evident at least in terms of snow maps.

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I don't know. I either need a different job, or a different weather forum (probably both) but this is really getting hard to take anymore. And I just need to vent.

And it's not the cold as much as the duration of it. If we'd get a break every couple weeks, I could tolerate it, but as it is, I dread going to a job I generally and genuinely love, because it's so difficult (and hazardous) with the ice buildup, not to mention frozen equipment.

I know that every winter we get one or a couple of true arctic air masses, but it's been relentless this year. Usually at some point we moderate, but not this winter. Normal to slightly below is ok, but this stuff is harsh.

With that, I'm sorry to pee in everyone's Cheerios, but my mental state is precarious right now. I should have stayed in AZ after my mom passed, and let the chips fall where they would as far as the survival of my marriage.

Everyday we are getting closer!

How Many Days Until Spring?

Time Remaining Until Spring:

March 20, 2026

42 days

• 1 month 14 days
• 6 weeks
• 1,008 hours

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 14.  A rough average of all the models this morning has us getting about .6" of snow down this way this evening.  It's a shame that arctic front isn't moving through a few hours earlier tonight because, as it stands, we're looking at one heck of a midnight high for tomorrow.  Happy Friday, all. 

[Summit Snow]

Detailed Forecast

Today

A chance of snow after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight

bGM-Waverly Forecast 

 

Snow likely, mainly between 11pm and 4am. Areas of blowing snow after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -6. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest 12 to 17 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Saturday

A chance of snow, mainly before 7am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 2pm. Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 5. Wind chill values as low as -19. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night

A slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -1. Wind chill values as low as -21. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 12. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

 

[Festus]

So the Wind Advisory states a rather pedestrian 15 - 25 mph winds but gusting to 55 which seems a little disproportional.  In my neck of the woods, what are the factors determining wind "gustiness"?

[mahantango#1]

overnight low was 5.

[anotherman]

Thinking this is going to cause some problems today.  People just see half an inch forecast and don't worry.

[canderson]

17 minutes ago, Festus said:

So the Wind Advisory states a rather pedestrian 15 - 25 mph winds but gusting to 55 which seems a little disproportional.  In my neck of the woods, what are the factors determining wind "gustiness"?

More than that , why does it end at 11 am? It’ll be gusting into the 40s all day Saturday. 

[canderson]

CTP has no snow accumulation in my forecast tonight. 

[ChescoWx]

Our coldest weather of the year is on the way over this weekend. Snow showers should begin from west to east across the area this evening with occasional snow showers and maybe a snow squall tomorrow morning. The high tomorrow will be overnight tonight but quickly fall into the single digits above zero during the day tomorrow with winds gusting as high as 50mph. The extreme cold warning goes into effect at 3pm tomorrow. Snow amounts will be light with between a coating and an inch at most. We should finally warm up to near freezing by Tuesday with a chance for some freezing rain or rain by Wednesday with temperatures just above freezing in most spots.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

Thinking this is going to cause some problems today.  People just see half an inch forecast and don't worry.

I've been having similar thoughts all week, that the timing and temps could make that half inch problematic this evening.  I'm just not sure there's enough juice with this system, seems pretty dry.  We'll have to get some semblance of rates at some point to make it happen but if we do, yeah, I think things could turn dicey quickly with no pre-treatment on the roads.