Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU ain't playing around with the wind threat:

NW winds of 20-40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph will buffet the region on Sat. In addition, temps will plunge into the teens Sat morning with wind chills as low as -15°F throughout the day and -20 to -25°F at night. Exposed skin could develop frostbite in just 10-15 minutes. Roadways may be littered with debris from the high winds, as well. Uninsulated/unprotected pipes may freeze or burst, and widespread power outages are also likely. Stock up on extra water, food, blankets, coats, flashlights and other supplies late this week. Make sure you have a backup generator too. In the event of a power outage, the internal temp of your house may drop to unsafe levels in just 12-24 hours. Finally, fill your vehicle's gas tank to prevent fuel lines from freezing.

Geesh, I guess not. I’m probably in the minority here but I’m not really all that impressed with the wind threat if we’re talking strictly from a mph standpoint. Most guidance and that includes the high res stuff like the HRRR that normally ramps up surface winds barely support advisory winds much less anything of the variety that would cause widespread power outages. But I could get on board with a wind advisory for 45-50mph I suppose. Basically a typical wind event in other words, it gusts to 60mph at @canderson’s house in those anyways haha. This event also has a more northerly trajectory to the wind as well being more NW or even NNW.. less of a direct downslope component to enhance wind gusts IMO. 

What I am impressed with is the COMBO of the winds and cold temperatures. Dynamically this will be the coldest shot of the winter to date. The more northerly component to the wind minimizes modification of the airmass source travelling over the Lakes, which already have a good bit of ice with Erie >95% covered.  Non-diurnal “High” temps for Saturday will occur before about 3-4am Sat morning. Sat daytime temps will struggle to get out of the single digits in most of the area. Laurels and some north-central might not crack zero.

You can see how there’s an appendage of non-modified Arctic air that reaches PA. I drew the rough surface wind direction. It mostly goes over the frozen portion of Huron and Erie. 

Saturday morning will probably be the worst for wind chills, though it won’t be good all day. I think most of that extreme cold watch has a good chance of being upgraded to the full blown warning.

Here’s the kind of wind chills the 18z HRRR put out after daybreak Saturday morning. I haven’t really seen those kind of wind chills since the Christmas 2022 cold shot. 

[pasnownut]

6 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1221 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

PAZ019-026>028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-060800-
/O.EXB.KCTP.EC.A.0004.260207T0900Z-260208T1500Z/
Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Sunbury, Gettysburg, Carlisle, Hershey,
Mifflintown, Selinsgrove, Chambersburg, State College, Newport,
Mount Union, Lewisburg, York, Williamsport, Shamokin, Lewistown,
Lebanon, Harrisburg, Pottsville, Danville, Lancaster, Berwick,
McConnellsburg, Bloomsburg, Lock Haven, and Huntingdon
1221 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below possible.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero
  could result in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not
  taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must go outside, dress in layers. Cover exposed skin to
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia...and Nut, you're an idiot for going snowmobiling in this....

Fixed

[Blizzard of 93]

Both the 18z AI Euro & AI GFS have a potential Winter storm chance near President’s Day this run.

[Blizzard of 93]

I just noticed that MDT got down to 2 degrees this morning.

[pasnownut]

5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Both the 18z AI Euro & AI GFS have a potential Winter storm chance near President’s Day this run.

 

 

Overnighters look to have flattened the flow, which makes more sense to me.  While nao and ao are on the rise,both still in - territory next week.  Add to it - pna, a flatter look seems reasonable.  Beyond that...dunno, but next week still doesnt look bigly warm to me. 

Every week we add to this awesome stretch is fine by me.  Spring will be springin soon enough and it'll make the warmth feel gooder.  

Headed north in a few hours.  Have a great weekend all.  Bundle up and enjoy the snow.

 

[pawatch]

15 degrees this morning. Still feels bitter out.

Have a good trip Nut! 

 

[Voyager]

I don't know. I either need a different job, or a different weather forum (probably both) but this is really getting hard to take anymore. And I just need to vent.

And it's not the cold as much as the duration of it. If we'd get a break every couple weeks, I could tolerate it, but as it is, I dread going to a job I generally and genuinely love, because it's so difficult (and hazardous) with the ice buildup, not to mention frozen equipment.

I know that every winter we get one or a couple of true arctic air masses, but it's been relentless this year. Usually at some point we moderate, but not this winter. Normal to slightly below is ok, but this stuff is harsh.

With that, I'm sorry to pee in everyone's Cheerios, but my mental state is precarious right now. I should have stayed in AZ after my mom passed, and let the chips fall where they would as far as the survival of my marriage.

[mahantango#1]

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I don't know. I either need a different job, or a different weather forum (probably both) but this is really getting hard to take anymore. And I just need to vent.

And it's not the cold as much as the duration of it. If we'd get a break every couple weeks, I could tolerate it, but as it is, I dread going to a job I generally and genuinely love, because it's so difficult (and hazardous) with the ice buildup, not to mention frozen equipment.

I know that every winter we get one or a couple of true arctic air masses, but it's been relentless this year. Usually at some point we moderate, but not this winter. Normal to slightly below is ok, but this stuff is harsh.

With that, I'm sorry to pee in everyone's Cheerios, but my mental state is precarious right now. I should have stayed in AZ after my mom passed, and let the chips fall where they would as far as the survival of my marriage.

Hang in there man, Only a month or so to go until Spring.

CTP had this today in their discussion about a little relief next week…
 

KEY MESSAGE 3: Moderating temperatures during the second week of
February

For those looking for a break in the cold pattern, here you go.
Confidence continues to increase that temperatures will moderate
during the second week of February and climb back to seasonal
levels or near the historical average for early to mid February.
This "warmup" puts mixed precipitation on the table with the
next weather system that could arrive Wed/Thu next week. The
guidance has come into better agreement concerning the precip
pattern evolution with best odds around the middle of next
week.