Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU ain't playing around with the wind threat:

NW winds of 20-40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph will buffet the region on Sat. In addition, temps will plunge into the teens Sat morning with wind chills as low as -15°F throughout the day and -20 to -25°F at night. Exposed skin could develop frostbite in just 10-15 minutes. Roadways may be littered with debris from the high winds, as well. Uninsulated/unprotected pipes may freeze or burst, and widespread power outages are also likely. Stock up on extra water, food, blankets, coats, flashlights and other supplies late this week. Make sure you have a backup generator too. In the event of a power outage, the internal temp of your house may drop to unsafe levels in just 12-24 hours. Finally, fill your vehicle's gas tank to prevent fuel lines from freezing.

Geesh, I guess not. I’m probably in the minority here but I’m not really all that impressed with the wind threat if we’re talking strictly from a mph standpoint. Most guidance and that includes the high res stuff like the HRRR that normally ramps up surface winds barely support advisory winds much less anything of the variety that would cause widespread power outages. But I could get on board with a wind advisory for 45-50mph I suppose. Basically a typical wind event in other words, it gusts to 60mph at @canderson’s house in those anyways haha. This event also has a more northerly trajectory to the wind as well being more NW or even NNW.. less of a direct downslope component to enhance wind gusts IMO. 

What I am impressed with is the COMBO of the winds and cold temperatures. Dynamically this will be the coldest shot of the winter to date. The more northerly component to the wind minimizes modification of the airmass source travelling over the Lakes, which already have a good bit of ice with Erie >95% covered.  Non-diurnal “High” temps for Saturday will occur before about 3-4am Sat morning. Sat daytime temps will struggle to get out of the single digits in most of the area. Laurels and some north-central might not crack zero.

You can see how there’s an appendage of non-modified Arctic air that reaches PA. I drew the rough surface wind direction. It mostly goes over the frozen portion of Huron and Erie. 

Saturday morning will probably be the worst for wind chills, though it won’t be good all day. I think most of that extreme cold watch has a good chance of being upgraded to the full blown warning.

Here’s the kind of wind chills the 18z HRRR put out after daybreak Saturday morning. I haven’t really seen those kind of wind chills since the Christmas 2022 cold shot. 

[pasnownut]

6 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1221 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

PAZ019-026>028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-060800-
/O.EXB.KCTP.EC.A.0004.260207T0900Z-260208T1500Z/
Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Sunbury, Gettysburg, Carlisle, Hershey,
Mifflintown, Selinsgrove, Chambersburg, State College, Newport,
Mount Union, Lewisburg, York, Williamsport, Shamokin, Lewistown,
Lebanon, Harrisburg, Pottsville, Danville, Lancaster, Berwick,
McConnellsburg, Bloomsburg, Lock Haven, and Huntingdon
1221 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below possible.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero
  could result in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not
  taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must go outside, dress in layers. Cover exposed skin to
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia...and Nut, you're an idiot for going snowmobiling in this....

Fixed

[Blizzard of 93]

Both the 18z AI Euro & AI GFS have a potential Winter storm chance near President’s Day this run.

[Blizzard of 93]

I just noticed that MDT got down to 2 degrees this morning.