Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

22 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yep.  It's hard to find a spot that works perfectly year around but it sounds like you've done as well as possible.  From my experience, virtually all home stations run a bit high when compared to the official NWS stations and are particularly prone to spiking when in direct no sun, no matter what claims they make.  It's why I don't fully trust most home stations.  It's also why I don't report my own daily highs (except for very cloudy days), because unfortunately the only spot I have for it leads to full sun exposure most of the midday and typically leads to readings a good 3-5 degrees too high during the hours of like 10:30-2:30.  LNS and MDT both on the verge of officially going above 32 for the first time in eons.  Exciting times ha. 

I think it's been a good 12 days or so since it's been above freezing officially? Looking at data it appears we were in the mid to upper 30s on the 22nd of January. That's one heck of an impressive run. We'll start another little streak in the coming days, too. 

[Itstrainingtime]

I feel like Elliott at MU downplays wind almost as much as he does wintry weather. Having said that, he's already emphasizing that Saturday will feature 60mph winds...

[Yardstickgozinya]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

southern tier has been close enough on many runs to keep some mood flakes in the offing tonight/tom morning.  

Friday clipper still seems to be holding some promise for a winter landscape refresher for much of the state.  Still think SE of mtns mood flakes to a coating at best w/ typical clipper fashion favoring nother westers.  

and while the 7-10 look quiet outside of above mentioned chances, I'm not gonna waste a week of winter, searching for another week of winter.  Gonna enjoy what we have and see how things look next week at this time.  Ens guidance 2m's look warmish, but tellies beyond 2/15 seem to be zonal/neutral, and with expansive snow pack, It may mute warm signals back towards normal or slightly above.  In peak climo, thats not horrible IMO.  MJO is concerning, but lets see what it looks like a week from now.  SSW event also happening, and downwelling and lag time of it, will likely have an affect on tellies as we look longer range.  

 

My expectations for this winter weren't that high to begin with .The pattern has already verified quite a bit colder then I would have thought, due to my solar cycle biases. Hopefully, when we reap the benefits of the SSW later this month we're not in the hostile phases of the MJO and can time some other interactions properly. As far as any guidance goes,  I don't put any emotion or thought into any qualitative or quantitative forecast this  far out for a number of my own reasons,  but mainly because I just can't handle the f****** ride.  Until we're inside 96 to 72  I  view  most of the data as noise and look for other cues . 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

My expectations for this winter weren't that high to begin with .The pattern has already verified quite a bit colder then I would have thought, due to my solar cycle biases. Hopefully, when we reap the benefits of the SSW later this month we're not in the hostile phases of the MJO and can time some other interactions properly. As far as any guidance goes,  I don't put any emotion or thought into any qualitative or quantitative forecast this  far out for a number of my own reasons,  but mainly because I just can't handle the f****** ride.  Until we're inside 96 to 72  I  view  most of the data as noise and look for other cues . 

Yeah my bar was lower side of middle so like you, I'm more than happy that we've seen snow as much as we have, but moreover were able to keep what we got.  thats  Huge win for me personally.  Winter landscape is what I love most.

as you suggest, enough variables left to not put to much into MBY worries.  I like you will enjoy the next week of cold and see how long we relax, and by some nooners, the relax may have some fun sprinkled in.  Fine by me.

 

[pasnownut]

car digi verified exactly 32 at 1:58 pm at 283 interchange of etown.  downtown lanco had 34-35, then to lititz and 33.  Now back home and 33.  pretty uniform.

right in line w/ meso analysis as of 4pm.

My kinda thaw....

 

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I feel like Elliott at MU downplays wind almost as much as he does wintry weather. Having said that, he's already emphasizing that Saturday will feature 60mph winds...

Climate Prediction Center has had us in high winds for this coming weekend since last Saturday. 
 

With the temps it will feel like about the coldest the winter has been. 

[Superstorm]

Climate Prediction Center has had us in high winds for this coming weekend since last Saturday. 
 
With the temps it will feel like about the coldest the winter has been. 

Brutal windchills


.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Climate Prediction Center has had us in high winds for this coming weekend since last Saturday. 
 

With the temps it will feel like about the coldest the winter has been. 

 

27 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Brutal windchills


.

-25 wind chills!

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GFS had an interesting solution for a Valentine’s weekend Winter storm chance.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z EPS & AI EPS also have the Winter storm signal for Valentine’s weekend.

[Superstorm]

12z EPS & AI EPS also have the Winter storm signal for Valentine’s weekend.

Do like the signal.


.

[CarlislePaWx]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

-25 wind chills!

For the following I'm assuming -25 F (not C)...

To achieve this windchill reading you would need an ambient temperature of +3 F combined with a sustained wind of 41 mph.  Increasing windspeeds above 40mph lead to negligible additional chill.  For example, a 45mph wind at the same +3 F produces a windchill of -25 F (no change) while a 50mph wind drops the windchill by just one degree F to -26 degrees F.  So basically, after 41 mph a nearly 10mph increase in windspeed results in virtually no additional chill.

With an ambient temperature of +10 degrees you can't drop to -25F even with a 60mph wind.  At that speed the windchill only drops to -18 F !

At an ambient of +15 F the max drop (at 60mph) results in a windchill of -11 F.  At 40mph the chill is -8 F.

These examples seem to indicate that you must drop to below zero to reach -25 more quickly with a wind of only 30mph.

At -5 F ambient you only need a wind speed of 15mph to hit -25 F.

At -10 F you only need a wisp of a breeze of 7 mph.

 

[mahantango#1]

9 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

For the following I'm assuming -25 F (not C)...

To achieve this windchill reading you would need an ambient temperature of +3 F combined with a sustained wind of 41 mph.  Increasing windspeeds above 40mph lead to negligible additional chill.  For example, a 45mph wind at the same +3 F produces a windchill of -25 F (no change) while a 50mph wind drops the windchill by just one degree F to -26 degrees F.  So basically, after 41 mph a nearly 10mph increase in windspeed results in virtually no additional chill.

With an ambient temperature of +10 degrees you can't drop to -25F even with a 60mph wind.  At that speed the windchill only drops to -18 F !

At an ambient of +15 F the max drop (at 60mph) results in a windchill of -11 F.  At 40mph the chill is -8 F.

These examples seem to indicate that you must drop to below zero to reach -25 more quickly with a wind of only 30mph.

At -5 F ambient you only need a wind speed of 15mph to hit -25 F.

At -10 F you only need a wisp of a breeze of 7 mph.

 

Still gonna feel brutal. With any wind over 20mph.

[Voyager]

Just looked at my forecast. Another solid week of single digit lows. Enough...

This kind of cold is just too much for me. 

[mahantango#1]

16 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Just looked at my forecast. Another solid week of single digit lows. Enough...

This kind of cold is just too much for me. 

Hang in there temps. Will soon have to increase. 

[mahantango#1]

34.2 was the high again today.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

For the following I'm assuming -25 F (not C)...

To achieve this windchill reading you would need an ambient temperature of +3 F combined with a sustained wind of 41 mph.  Increasing windspeeds above 40mph lead to negligible additional chill.  For example, a 45mph wind at the same +3 F produces a windchill of -25 F (no change) while a 50mph wind drops the windchill by just one degree F to -26 degrees F.  So basically, after 41 mph a nearly 10mph increase in windspeed results in virtually no additional chill.

With an ambient temperature of +10 degrees you can't drop to -25F even with a 60mph wind.  At that speed the windchill only drops to -18 F !

At an ambient of +15 F the max drop (at 60mph) results in a windchill of -11 F.  At 40mph the chill is -8 F.

These examples seem to indicate that you must drop to below zero to reach -25 more quickly with a wind of only 30mph.

At -5 F ambient you only need a wind speed of 15mph to hit -25 F.

At -10 F you only need a wisp of a breeze of 7 mph.

 

The met from MU was touting -20 to -25 wind chills on Saturday.

[CarlislePaWx]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The met from MU was touting -20 to -25 wind chills on Saturday.

Well, now you know what weather conditions will have to be like to get to that level of cold.  Realistically, the ambient temp is going to have to be at +5 with winds of 35mph to get there.  Also, if that level of windchill is forecast, then we go beyond a cold weather advisory into a windchill warning.  I really don't want either of those.

[canderson]

22 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, now you know what weather conditions will have to be like to get to that level of cold.  Realistically, the ambient temp is going to have to be at +5 with winds of 35mph to get there.  Also, if that level of windchill is forecast, then we go beyond a cold weather advisory into a windchill warning.  I really don't want either of those.

Seems plausible both temp and wind wise. 

[Jns2183]

Brrrrrrrrrr

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Voyager]

22 this morning here. I can handle winter morning temps in this range. Single digits to near zero, not so much.

[Jns2183]

22 this morning here. I can handle winter morning temps in this range. Single digits to near zero, not so much.

This doesn't even feel like jacket weather. Yesterday afternoon wearing anything but a heavy sweatshirt felt like overkill

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[mahantango#1]

[Voyager]

55 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

This doesn't even feel like jacket weather. Yesterday afternoon wearing anything but a heavy sweatshirt felt like overkill

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Shows how cold it's been when 20's and 30's actually feel warm...lol

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Huge bust in the low forecast here as my temp never went below 27. Clouds were supposed to clear out during the predawn hours and just never did. 

[mahantango#1]

7 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Shows how cold it's been when 20's and 30's actually feel warm...lol

Yea it's been feeling like a heatwave.

[MickeyTim6533]

[anotherman]

1 minute ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

GFS doing GFS things.  Fun to look at but I'm pretty sure it's all by itself.

[MickeyTim6533]

22 minutes ago, anotherman said:

GFS doing GFS things.  Fun to look at but I'm pretty sure it's all by itself.

Euro AI says what storm

[paweather5]

30 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Just need it to be right this one time.