Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

22 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yep.  It's hard to find a spot that works perfectly year around but it sounds like you've done as well as possible.  From my experience, virtually all home stations run a bit high when compared to the official NWS stations and are particularly prone to spiking when in direct no sun, no matter what claims they make.  It's why I don't fully trust most home stations.  It's also why I don't report my own daily highs (except for very cloudy days), because unfortunately the only spot I have for it leads to full sun exposure most of the midday and typically leads to readings a good 3-5 degrees too high during the hours of like 10:30-2:30.  LNS and MDT both on the verge of officially going above 32 for the first time in eons.  Exciting times ha. 

I think it's been a good 12 days or so since it's been above freezing officially? Looking at data it appears we were in the mid to upper 30s on the 22nd of January. That's one heck of an impressive run. We'll start another little streak in the coming days, too. 

[Itstrainingtime]

I feel like Elliott at MU downplays wind almost as much as he does wintry weather. Having said that, he's already emphasizing that Saturday will feature 60mph winds...

[Yardstickgozinya]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

southern tier has been close enough on many runs to keep some mood flakes in the offing tonight/tom morning.  

Friday clipper still seems to be holding some promise for a winter landscape refresher for much of the state.  Still think SE of mtns mood flakes to a coating at best w/ typical clipper fashion favoring nother westers.  

and while the 7-10 look quiet outside of above mentioned chances, I'm not gonna waste a week of winter, searching for another week of winter.  Gonna enjoy what we have and see how things look next week at this time.  Ens guidance 2m's look warmish, but tellies beyond 2/15 seem to be zonal/neutral, and with expansive snow pack, It may mute warm signals back towards normal or slightly above.  In peak climo, thats not horrible IMO.  MJO is concerning, but lets see what it looks like a week from now.  SSW event also happening, and downwelling and lag time of it, will likely have an affect on tellies as we look longer range.  

 

My expectations for this winter weren't that high to begin with .The pattern has already verified quite a bit colder then I would have thought, due to my solar cycle biases. Hopefully, when we reap the benefits of the SSW later this month we're not in the hostile phases of the MJO and can time some other interactions properly. As far as any guidance goes,  I don't put any emotion or thought into any qualitative or quantitative forecast this  far out for a number of my own reasons,  but mainly because I just can't handle the f****** ride.  Until we're inside 96 to 72  I  view  most of the data as noise and look for other cues .