Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great write up by CTP. 

Thats pure weather porn right there.

Props to them for sharing.  

[GrandmasterB]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

6z's starting off the day w/ good steps.

Icon pops secondary quicker and bring perty blues 40-50 mile SE with it.  Saves my ass from much taint.

Giddy up buttercups....

Yardsticks snippet from ctp also a thing of beauty.

Celebration of life service this morning

Celebration of snow rest of weekend.

 

Outside of the Euro which brought the mix line further north, the rest of the 6Z runs were a noticeable improvement. ICON significantly colder, NAM better up top, RGEM improved. If we are moving to a compromise towards the GFS, that’s a big win! 

[GrandmasterB]

3 hours ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

so the storm is over by Sunday night? seems quick

We don’t know. Read the NWS write-up. They discuss this in some detail with the comma head potentially over us (GFS).

[pasnownut]

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

If you want some extra Friday weather tracking fun, check out the 6z GFS for Next weekend…wow! 
The GFS & some other Op/ensembles have been interested off & on for another chance next weekend.

Oh  & there could be a Clipper around this Thursday that takes a decent track for us a little snow pack refresher.

Exciting times on here!

yeah, this is looking like quite a nice stretch of the "winters of old" coming up.  Just giddy about it.

 

[paweather]

The key is in CTP write up is how long does it take to saturate the air for snow to fall. Always a concern does it take inches of Virgo snow or does it saturate quicker and we do lose that much. 

[CarlislePaWx]

Next weekend's storm (only)...

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Outside of the Euro which brought the mix line further north, the rest of the 6Z runs were a noticeable improvement. ICON significantly colder, NAM better up top, RGEM improved. If we are moving to a compromise towards the GFS, that’s a big win! 

and in truth even if the Euro is right, its still an out and out beatdown w/ me pingin for a couple hours after the hammers already dropped.  I'll take it just as it is n be happy. 

and after looking at 6z, verbatim I'm all snow. 

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

We don’t know. Read the NWS write-up. They discuss this in some detail with the comma head potentially over us (GFS).

as weve been seeing, secondary (coastal) is the key for that deformation band to set up.  longer the primary holds on, it impedes coastal/comma head development.  

[anotherman]

8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Next weekend's storm (only)...

Good lord.  It will change a million times but it's giving me 2010 vibes.

[pasnownut]

Just now, anotherman said:

Good lord.  It will change a million times but it's giving me 2010 vibes.

it really does have that feel.  

[davidjd1114]

How much snow is likely for York??


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[paweather]

I can’t even think about the next storm after tracking this one for days and wanting to see the results but thanks all for sharing. 

[ChescoWx]

A cold weather advisory from the NWS goes into effect from 10pm tonight till 10am tomorrow morning. Highs today before an arctic frontal passage will get close to freezing in spots before dropping quickly by late afternoon. We should fall to the teens during the 7pm hour and near single digits by midnight tonight. Lows tonight should be near 4 degrees above zero and we recover tomorrow to no higher than 15 to 17 degrees. Wind chills near 10 below tomorrow. The well-advertised snowstorm arrives after midnight tomorrow night and could last into Monday morning. Most of Chester County will transition from heavy snow to heavy sleet during the late afternoon on Sunday. This will stop fast accumulating snow and move the area to slow accumulating sleet which does count as snow accumulation....be sure to clean off your snowboards when the snow turns to sleet. Once the storm passes on Monday we will see little melting for at least the next week - in fact, models are hinting we may not see another above freezing day till Groundhog Day in early February. Oh, and indeed I do not think we have seen our last snow event either.

[Superstorm]

That CTP write is one of the best I have read from them.


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 26.  Just got done perusing the 0z/6z model suite and overall pretty solid.  I will say, in the aggregate, the mean sleet line seems to reach almost directly over my area by late Sunday afternoon, with the NAM obviously being the most aggressive.  Luckily most of the qpf will have occurred by then and the loss shouldn't be too great.  We'll have to see if the NAM scores another coup or course corrects to something in between itself and the GFS.  I will be keeping a close eye on the Meso's as they come into range today.  12z HRRR just wrapped up and looks good at the end of the run but hard to make much of it at this point.  Next 24 hours critical for the MD line folks with regard to sleet impact.  Either way, a major storm the likes of which we haven't seen in years is on the way, with deep cold to follow, and perhaps other opportunities thereafter.  We've been cold since November so who knows maybe this will be the winter that won't quit.  Buckle up friends.

[Porsche]

I'm hoping to pass the 12" mark with this storm, just a hair north of Route 30 in New Holland, if we mix 8-12 and if we don't 10-15 is my call.

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Porsche said:

I'm hoping to pass the 12" mark with this storm, just a hair north of Route 30 in New Holland, if we mix 8-12 and if we don't 10-15 is my call.

I like that call. I told family back home to expect around a foot, for the county I'd say 8-16" with the least amount near Kirkwood and highest amounts around Etown.

[paweather]

12z NAM 4am Sunday ripping 

[AccuChris]

12z NAM slightly colder through H60…keeps mix line around the Turnpike and south


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

Primary doesn't reach the latitude that it did on 6z.  Still taints but not as aggressively.  Baby steps for the NAM, good to see.

[GrandmasterB]

15 minutes ago, paweather said:

12z NAM 4am Sunday ripping 

12Z NAM is a big win for our area.  Precip arrives faster, absolute wall of moisture, just when we start to flirt with mixing we get a little coastal influence to save us.  Great run!!  /ninja'd by AccuChris and MJS!

[Superstorm]

NAM is definitely getting to where we want to see it.


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

Snow totals for our region are worlds better on NAM when compared to 6z.  3K not quite as friendly with the sleet reductions but getting there.  On to the next one.

[AccuChris]

12z NAM kuchera snow map


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[WmsptWx]

When was the last time Greensburg got 20" of snow?

[CarlislePaWx]

11 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z NAM kuchera snow map


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This looks infinitely better than 0Z last night.

My point-n-click gives me a range of 12" - 20".  My prediction of 19.59" is still inside the NWS range...lol

[anotherman]

Man, that’s close for my backyard.

[717WeatherLover]

Who here remembers years past when we had multiple threads to differentiate the upcoming storms to decrease confusion?  Exciting times!  The "Good 'ole Days" for winter weather lovers!

[Festus]

Millersville Top 25 snowstorms since 1926.  I'd say good but not guaranteed chance to make the list. 

Millersville/Lancaster (1926 - 2025)
	Event #	Month(s)	Day(s)	Year	Snowfall Amount
	1	Jan	7-8	1996	30.0
	2	Jan	22-23	2016	26.7
	3	Feb	11-12	1983	24.0
	4	Feb	16-17	2003	24.0
	5	Feb	5-6	2010	24.0
	6	Feb	15-16	1958	20.0
	7	Feb	9-10	2010	19.0
	8	Mar	13-14	1993	18.0
	9	Mar	20-21	2018	17.5
	10	Jan	16	1945	17.0
	11	Feb	3-4	1961	17.0
	12	Feb	13	2014	17.0
	13	Jan	29	1928	16.0
	14	Feb	20-21	1947	16.0
	15	Dec	19	2009	16.0
	16	Feb	19	1979	15.0
	17	Mar	16-19	1956	14.5
	18	Mar	7-9	1941	14.0
	19	Jan	19-20	1961	14.0
	20	Jan	13	1964	14.0
	21	Feb	11-12	2006	14.0
	22	Nov	6-7	1953	13.5
	23	Dec	7	1959	13.5
	24	Mar	19-20	1958	13.0
	25	Feb	6-7	1978	12.3

[GrandmasterB]

20 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z NAM kuchera snow map


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It's interesting output because Northern Virgina snows for 9 hours if you look at the 3-hour increments but the Kuch map has them at 3.5 inches?  I get the warm nose thing but the thump was still quite impressive.  Bizarre output to me.