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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Jns2183
Jns2183

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it wa

WmsptWx
WmsptWx

Pornhub.com

MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted 
...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 10 below expected.

* WHERE...Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon,
  Perry, Schuylkill, and York Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could
  result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

 

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Festus

Festus

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, canderson said: 
...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 10 below expected.

* WHERE...Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon,
  Perry, Schuylkill, and York Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could
  result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

 

So was just outside prepping for the weekend and was roasting in my standard winter coat.  It's gorgeous out there.  South facing lawn is about 50/50 green/white. 

And come in to see this.  Crazy times.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU is wayyy more bullish than even you!!! He's thinking 20:1 ratios at the high end and 15:1 at worst.

Im a realist so I’m sticking with my gut down in our hoods and will be pleasantly surprised if wrong. If primary dies a quicker death mitigating waa I’ll tip my hat to his “bullish” call. 

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, boo radley said:

Stopping by to say good luck to all and hope you’re all digging out for days! Former Wmsptwx lol

Thanks again for changing your username to Santa Claus so I could take your stupid username and get stuck with it forever lol

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted

Good to see so many reputable sources so bullish with their opening predictions.  I was shocked to see CTP's initial map.  Just wow.  I love where we sit and see no way we can't win big with what we have diving into this airmass. 

With that said, there's one small thing I can't totally discount, and that is how many times over the years I've seen occasions where the globals, even in their wheelhouse range, aren't able to pick up on the extent of the intrusion of sneaky warm layers aloft.  Then we get inside of like 36-48 hours and the NAM, HRRR, and the gang start to show sleet in places you'd never expect it.  Next thing you know, during the height of the storm we're "tainting" as @pasnownut would say, and what was thought to be an epic storm turns into just a nice storm.  I just can't shake that thought given some of the globals are already showing it nearby, which is crazy to have to worry about when we're talking about temps in the teens for most of the duration of the event.  I know we're still looking at a beautiful front-end thump but I'll be keeping a close eye on the Mesos as they come into range.  Let's keep that primary Low at bay, shall we.  Despite all that, let's pile it up boys!  Next stop, 18z NAM.  Onward. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

17.5" on the 1.45" qpf from NBM IS 12:1 Ratio
If we hit 15:1 it's 22"


To make top 10 we have to break 15"

7 is 17.5"
5 is 20"

3 is 22.2 (blizzard of 96)20260122_140717.jpg

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Well at least I’m in the qpf bullseye. What it falls as, find out in 36ish hrs. Hoping for 80/20 snow/pingers

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@MillvilleWx - what do you think ratios might look like up north of the M/D line? One local forecaster is thinking up to 20:1 early on.

Hey! I’m thinking 18-20:1 initially in the beginning of the WAA regime and maybe locally higher in times of banding structures. That premise with higher ratios in banding carries pretty much the whole storm. I think 13-15:1 full storm average for everyone north of Rt30. Between the M/D and Rt30, perhaps more 12-14:1 storm average. That should help to do a range with QPF. This storm will rack up fast when the main 7H FGEN pattern gets cranking early Sunday AM. Dendrites galore and then followed by clumped aggregates as the warm nose filters in, but still big beautiful flakes. I think CTP is a bit bullish on accums, but I can understand their reasoning, so wouldn’t shock me if they hit the nail on the head! 

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