Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[paweather]

13 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Hah go to jail for a wrong forecast 

Obviously not maybe he ruined the forecast? 

[paweather]

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP being rightful caution in their afternoon update 

 

KEY MESSAGE 2: Medium-range guidance remains consistent in
depicting a large-scale winter storm this weekend, tracking from
the mid-South across the Mid-Atlantic states.

The devil, however, will be in the details, with a tight
northern edge snowfall gradient expected to be at play. Where
exactly this gradient zone sets up is highly uncertain, with the
potential for it lie somewhere across PA.

In all probability, the highest winter storm impacts will be
south of the Mason-Dixon line, but again with a tight snowfall
gradient and the anticipation of heavy snowfall where jet
dynamics are maximized, this situation bears watching. Please
stay tuned for the latest forecast updates.

Rightfully so, still days away this is going to be a long week.

[Itstrainingtime]

I'm having a hard time concentrating on enjoying my journey. I spent all of 4 hours offline doing some hiking but I can't stay away. For those who care, Horst (remember him) tweeted 2 hours ago - classic setup for a major winter storm. A crippling snow is possible...and so is a few inches. I'm sure he'll post again in the coming days.

[paweather]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm having a hard time concentrating on enjoying my journey. I spent all of 4 hours offline doing some hiking but I can't stay away. For those who care, Horst (remember him) tweeted 2 hours ago - classic setup for a major winter storm. A crippling snow is possible...and so is a few inches. I'm sure he'll post again in the coming days.

Horst is great as well. 

[AccuChris]

Eric Horst was a fabulous non-biased forecaster and a great mentor to me at Millersville when I was a met major


.

[paweather]

Getting a winter storm around SC PA has been more of a challenge in recent years. Hope this is one it can all come together and deliver. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm having a hard time concentrating on enjoying my journey. I spent all of 4 hours offline doing some hiking but I can't stay away. For those who care, Horst (remember him) tweeted 2 hours ago - classic setup for a major winter storm. A crippling snow is possible...and so is a few inches. I'm sure he'll post again in the coming days.

I saw that, give us more Eric!  Also, enjoy your trip pal.

[paweather]

@Blizzard of 93 are you staying up with me tonight for the EURO run? With my luck from last year I hope I don’t jinx it.

and yes @Itstrainingtimeenjoy your trip!

[paweather]

Looks like 18z ICON holds serve. 

[Superstorm]

I'm having a hard time concentrating on enjoying my journey. I spent all of 4 hours offline doing some hiking but I can't stay away. For those who care, Horst (remember him) tweeted 2 hours ago - classic setup for a major winter storm. A crippling snow is possible...and so is a few inches. I'm sure he'll post again in the coming days.

Man I miss his posts….




.

[paweather]

@MillvilleWxyour thoughts for us in SC PA?

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, paweather said:

@MillvilleWxyour thoughts for us in SC PA?

Hey guys!! Still trying to gauge the Synoptics for this storm for PA. One fact is the ratios should be excellent and have the potential to breach 15:1 in areas away from the M/D. The key is where the 7H FGEN aligns. The EC output is what you want as that helps with the second part of the system and really gets the prolonged snowfall signature across much of the area through Sunday, even lingering into Sunday night. I think the bar is probably 3-6” for the floor, and 16-20” for the ceiling. Still time to parse details, but the one plus is it’s either gonna be snow or no at this point. It expecting mixing at all for this subforum! 

[MillvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Man I miss his posts….




.

He was one of the best. My mentor in college. Learned so much from him that I still use to this day. His number one things he preached for a final forecast was “confidence”. When you make that final forecast, use wording that instills confidence for the consumer of the information. There’s always room to describe some uncertainty, but don’t wish-wash on something. Be bold. Never forgot that. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey guys!! Still trying to gauge the Synoptics for this storm for PA. One fact is the ratios should be excellent and have the potential to breach 15:1 in areas away from the M/D. The key is where the 7H FGEN aligns. The EC output is what you want as that helps with the second part of the system and really gets the prolonged snowfall signature across much of the area through Sunday, even lingering into Sunday night. I think the bar is probably 3-6” for the floor, and 16-20” for the ceiling. Still time to parse details, but the one plus is it’s either gonna be snow or no at this point. It expecting mixing at all for this subforum! 

Thanks! I am hoping for something in between the floor and the ceiling 8-12”.

Appreciate your thoughts @MillvilleWx

[paweather]

After the hiccup at 12z the 18z GFS seems to back the more northerly extent of the QPF.

[paweather]

18z GFS:

 

and it is not done yet.

[AccuChris]

Yeah this falls more in line with the other models. May still not be done correcting as it wasnt even a clean or full phase


.

[GrandmasterB]

My amateur thoughts on the 18Z GFS. First, welcome back to the party. Second, I think its snow map is our floor for this event. GFS gets that done through mostly over-running. It moves the low from Hatteras basically due east. If that comes up the coast at all like the Ukie or Euro then we can up the totals here.