Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Blizzard of 93]

Bare ground in Marysville. If there were any flakes, I missed them.

[mahantango#1]

Everything covered here, temp 32

[canderson]

19 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

It's 32 and slippery in Camp Hill

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Yea some glaze of ice around - just a touch too warm for me (which I’m thankful for - screw ice!) 

[paweather]

Friday for Lebanon county:

A chance of snow before 1pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[Voyager]

Started snowing about 20 minutes ago. Jeep is coated. Roads and sidewalks are a wet/white mixture.

[Jns2183]

I've never seen meteorologists so angry over models, as they currently are over Friday.

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[paweather]

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

I've never seen meteorologists so angry over models, as they currently are over Friday.

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Angry about what? Not being warm? 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, paweather said:

Friday for Lebanon county:

A chance of snow before 1pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

For Friday, the Latest GFS & Euro both have a little snow for the Susquehanna Valley changing to an icy mix potential.

The GFS brings more sleet & the Euro brings more freezing rain at this time. 

Still time, but for more snow instead of mix, we need that -NAO to flex a bit more to lock in that High in Quebec.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

For Friday, the Latest GFS & Euro both have a little snow for the Susquehanna Valley changing to an icy mix potential.

The GFS brings more sleet & the Euro brings more freezing rain at this time. 

Still time, but for more snow instead of mix, we need that -NAO to flex a bit more to lock in that High in Quebec.

Thanks Blizz yeah just stating what NWS is calling for a little early yet in the game. 

[mahantango#1]

PA Weather Plus, LLC: While I do not want to take the attention from the current winter event, considering post-Christmas travel, I want to bring attention to our next winter storm potential. No matter at which scenario you look at, it is becoming increasingly likely for significant impacts to the region on Friday, December 26th, across Pennsylvania in the form of snow and ice. A low-pressure system will be ramming against a strong Arctic high, allowing for heavy snow and ice. I am currently working on scenarios for this potential storm. The blog post will be out around 9 AM, if not sooner!

[Blizzard of 93]

MDT reported light snow the last couple of hours, so maybe we tack on a few tenths today to the monthly tally ?

[paweather]

Snowing in Palmyra (festive!)

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Friday’s forecast is precisely why no one should be making guarantees or arguing about things like surface temps ten days in advance, particularly in a complex pattern. 

[Jns2183]

Angry about what? Not being warm? 

Just about their frustration with mid range quality

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[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

It's 32 and slippery in Camp Hill

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I slid across a bridge and almost through the turn i was tryin to make.  I saved it tho. 

Wouldve been icing on the shit cake of a week I'm havin.  haha....sorta

 

 

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, paweather said:

Snowing in Palmyra (festive!)

yeah I'm callin this a win for me as its Christmas week and it sure helps to get me in a better mood seein snow.  Friday still up in the air, but would be awesome to see snow 2x this week.  

[paweather]

17 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

yeah I'm callin this a win for me as its Christmas week and it sure helps to get me in a better mood seein snow.  Friday still up in the air, but would be awesome to see snow 2x this week.  

Coming down pretty nicely now. It is a win in my book.

[Jns2183]

yeah I'm callin this a win for me as its Christmas week and it sure helps to get me in a better mood seein snow.  Friday still up in the air, but would be awesome to see snow 2x this week.  

I'll take a beautiful ice storm from my childhood. Back in the 90s and early 2000s it seemed like we would get at least two per winter, if not more. I remember some real bad ones too. I also remember some sleet bombs that produced pure cement, and if you waited an hour to long to shovel at storms end you would be out there with a chisel due to cold in Washington behind the system turning everything into an iceberg.

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[Itstrainingtime]

Rain mixed with a few pingers here at home. Slant-sticked my way to .1" of snowy slushy stuff earlier. Season total is 5.6". 

[pawatch]

Been snowing all morning, but probably only about an 1” of snow.

Roads are covered.

[ChescoWx]

We ended up with 1.0" of snow here in East Nantmeal this morning. This was our 5th winter event of the young winter season. The 10.4" of snow recorded this month here in EN is the snowiest December since the 11.7" of snow back in 2017. This is the 6th snowiest December in the 23 years I have been at this location. We get a brief reprieve from the winter weather through Christmas Day with afternoon temperatures just a few degrees below normal for the big day. Our next winter event looks like it could be our most impactful so far this season. Snow should arrive around noon on Friday we should then see a change to first sleet and finally freezing rain as we move through the afternoon. Temperatures during the storm on Boxing Day are likely to only warm into the upper 20's to near 30 degrees so what falls will likely be frozen in some form. We warm to near normal on Sunday before we turn much colder again on Monday and look to see below normal temperatures through the remainder of 2025 and into the first week of 2026.

[CarlislePaWx]

In Carlisle, around 10:15am, the temperature is 34.3 degrees.  Overnight I recorded just a trace of snow.  Mulchy areas were white, however most all other areas were wet.  Clearly the "action" was east of here towards Lebanon and Lancaster counties.  I'll be watching the models to see how the Friday storm develops.  With freezing rain events I often stay below 32 while points east and south warm up sooner.

It's hard to believe that just 24 hours ago my forecast high temp for Friday was 57 degrees.  This morning my forecast now is for a high temp of 32 degrees on Friday with early snow eventually changing to freezing rain.  Still too early for anything definitive on Friday.  Again, an interesting point is the farther northeast you go from south central, the longer the precip remains snow because that area is closer to the cold air source.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Rain mixed with a few pingers here at home. Slant-sticked my way to .1" of snowy slushy stuff earlier. Season total is 5.6". 

Did you miss out on that band that I drove through early this morning?  It was quite something, made for a beautiful scene on the train ride from Mount Joy to Middletown.

[pawatch]

33 degrees my Toro Max 8hp blower plugged up and that’s all she wrote.

All these 1-2” snows, don’t want to blow real well. 
Looks like it getting ready to switch to drizzle. 
 

Still amazed at the temperature swing in them forecast Friday.kind of pity them forecasters.

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Did you miss out on that band that I drove through early this morning?  It was quite something, made for a beautiful scene on the train ride from Mount Joy to Middletown.

I honestly don't know. I was up late last night picking up our son in Philly and slept in this morning. When I woke up (8:30ish) it was a light rain/sleet mix with just a coating on grassy surfaces. If we did get that burst of snow that you mentioned it would have had to been exceptionally brief. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

I'll take a beautiful ice storm from my childhood. Back in the 90s and early 2000s it seemed like we would get at least two per winter, if not more. I remember some real bad ones too. I also remember some sleet bombs that produced pure cement, and if you waited an hour to long to shovel at storms end you would be out there with a chisel due to cold in Washington behind the system turning everything into an iceberg.

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1994 there were ruts in the streets for what seemed like a couple of weeks. There was an obscene amount of ice that winter. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Nooner GFS is...wintry for Friday. Warning level snowfall in eastern PA. 

[AccuChris]

Friday afternoon definitely cold for many


.

[AccuChris]

12z GFS 10:1 24-hour snowfall for Friday night


.

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Nooner GFS is...wintry for Friday. Warning level snowfall in eastern PA. 

Just saw that.  Huhh...maybe just maybe there are 2 rabits in this weeks winter hat.  Not that i believe it'll happen....yet, but is sure looks nice digitally.